As MAGA pundits swear that the ”rigged” Trump trial verdict all but guarantees his victory in November, as Trump’s own website crashes on verdict day from the flood of donations (at least $34.8 million) and as every single federal criminal trial (and the Georgia trial) against Trump seems to be delayed until at least after the election, as Mike Johnson lays out the GOP day-one agenda with lots of tax cuts with massive benefit and administrative reductions/elimination with tons of intrusive and very personal governmental mandates… many are asking, “What just happened?”
Days before the GOP convention, Trump will be sentenced for his election manipulation in New York. Porn stars and sexual allegations underscored a man hellbent on crushing anyone who threatened his ascent. It’s hard to believe that this was not a fair trial, but many question even if any crimes were committed. Ever the consummate “victim,” from a man who sidestepped responsibility for questionable practices for decades using his connections to the fullest, Trump will appeal. But what will the July 11th sentencing hearing reflect? Probation and a fine? Add a prison (for the crime) and possibly jail (for contempt) sentence… to be served when and where? Suspended pending the outcome of an appeal, but Trump shows no remorse? Or any incarceration suspended to be reinstated if Trump commits further criminal acts? The trial court judge, Juan Merchan, is obviously aware of the violence that could follow implementation of an immediate jail/prison sentence.
Notwithstanding the flood of “news channel” experts and social media sanctimonious “predictors,” nobody really knows what will happen. Dems ask, “How can Americans vote for a convicted felon as our representative to the world?” As corporate donors ramped up their contributions to the Trump campaign – even after his website crashed from the volume of campaign contributions on the day of the verdict – all the stock markets were down the next day. Could Trump win in November? If the election were held today, I think the victim-expert wins. “I am a political prisoner,” Trump posted on his solicitation for contributions. I think that victim emotion necessarily fades with time as the electorate is already overloaded with polarized messaging.
Biden correctly stayed silent, but Trump-supporter Benjamin Netanyahu amped up his attacks on Rafah, openly defying Biden. Indeed, the current President is perceived to be an elderly and weak candidate who does not seem to be able to convince his traditional voters that he actually implemented inflation reduction, is addressing climate change, is creating jobs through his infrastructure legislation… but is globally blamed for supplying munitions to Israel that are being used to kill civilians. Trump’s base, with powerful religious reasons to see Israel in a major war, is completely on board with Trump’s “finish it” advice to Netanyahu.
Everybody wants to know now what is probably going to happen in November. There are two conventions scheduled this summer with lots of angry people ready to descend on them. There are more Supreme Court rulings that could impact the presidential election and the down-ballot candidates as well. Hunter Biden’s gun possession/tax evasion trial is about to start to the delight of the GOP. While Speaker Mike Johnson and the Heritage Foundation are planning for a November sweep – Trump as President and both houses of Congress in MAGA hands – in the end, there is no way to know. Here’s how The Morning news feed (New York Times, May 31st) puts it:
“Nobody knows. Political prognostication after unprecedented news is a recipe for regret. (The day after Richard Nixon resigned, a front-page story in this very newspaper said the resignation immediately made Gerald Ford the favorite to win the 1976 election; he lost.)
“But we understand that readers are hungry for analysis of this question because it may be the most important one. And we recommend this article by Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.
“Nate points out that Trump’s current polling lead relies on voters who have traditionally supported Democrats, including younger and nonwhite voters. Some of them have previously told pollsters that a conviction would make them less comfortable with supporting Trump. Nate also emphasizes — and this will sound familiar — that nobody yet knows what will happen.”
I’m Peter Dekom, and I do agree with exceptionally relevant words that Abraham Lincoln ? at the closing of the Republican convention in 1858: "A house divided against itself cannot stand."
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