Immigration – For What It’s Worth

I’ve blogged about how climate change has driven many farmers off their land, leaving them desperate for a way to support their families. Global conflicts and civil wars – like what we have seen (and continue to see) in Ukraine, Myanmar, Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria and Sudan – have pushed others to leave their homelands to seek a safer life elsewhere. I’ve noted that major criminal gangs (and their spawn: drug cartels) in Mexico and Central America, supported primarily from revenues generated from drug users in the United States plus the abundant flow of firearms easily purchased, by reason of lax gun laws, all across the US… and smuggled south.

Exasperated by a failure by Republicans to support their own co-sponsored, bipartisan immigration reform bill, President Biden has unilaterally closed the southern border based on daily traffic; effective June 6th, his executive order raises the legal standard for asylum claims and blocks access for those crossing the border illegally when average arrests are higher than 2,500 a day. Everyone expects serious legal challenges to this order.

The world has changed since the very notion of what constitutes a refugee seeking asylum was established. The relevant US website tells us that: “Refugee status or asylum may be granted to people who have been persecuted or fear they will be persecuted on account of race, religion, nationality, and/or membership in a particular social group or political opinion.” But most of the persons at our border, including many who have already moved here through legal and unlawful means over the last two or three decades, do not meet those criteria.

That gangs, cartels and insurrectionists may be slaughtering civilians who are not being “persecuted on account of race, religion, nationality, and/or membership in a particular social group or political opinion” is technically irrelevant… even if the necessary guns came from us. The decimation of climate change on agriculture may have been caused primarily by industrial powers like the United States – the historically worst emitters of greenhouse gasses – but that damage does not create eligibility for refugee status.

But for all those craving entrance at our southern border, seeking asylum for generic persecution or an inability to survive under harsh conditions in their homelands but not from that targeted persecution, there is one clear, measurable and overriding motivation: economic opportunity. It’s been that way in a huge way since Columbus planted the Spanish flag in the New World. As an immigrant attractant, something no president wishes to reverse, nothing draws like a labor marketplace with very low unemployment. Writing for the June 6th Yahoo! Finance, Rick Newman fills in the details:

“Critics of President Biden say he’s handled migration poorly, which is why record numbers of migrants have flooded the southwest border during his term. Biden is now trying to improve his standing on the issue with a new executive order meant to keep migrants out… But the flow of migrants may have a lot less to do with any president’s particular policies than political analysts think. As with much human behavior, economic factors could be a much more powerful root cause.

“New research by economist Dany Bahar at the Center for Global Development showed a strong correlation during the last 24 years between the strength of the US labor market and the number of migrants trying to enter the country. Foreigners may not follow the latest data on unemployment or job openings, but they seem to know when there’s work to be had in the United States… A lot of immigration analysis focuses on lousy conditions in origin countries that compel people to leave, such as dysfunctional economies with few meaningful jobs and high levels of violence. That certainly applies to nations such as Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and other central American nations, where many of the migrants arriving at the southwest border come from.

“That’s the ‘push’ side of the equation. But the ‘pull’ side matters too, meaning that a strong US job market is more likely to draw migrants, and vice versa. And what seems to be driving record migration under Biden is the need for workers in the economy he’s overseeing… The correlation, Bahar found, ‘is much more pronounced over the past few years, when the US has experienced an all-time high in border crossings, as well as an all-time high in labor market tightness.’ Since there’s been no particular shock in the origin countries that would drive people out, the pull of the US labor market seems to be the dominant factor.

“It’s reasonable to ask whether the same pattern held when Donald Trump was president, since he imposed the most aggressive measures of any modern president to keep migrants out. Yet the correlation between migrant flows and the US labor market held up during Trump’s term. Despite his insistence on building a border wall, keeping Muslims out, and interdicting caravans, border crossings rose under Trump at the same time the US labor market tightened…

“Another upshot involves the economic consequences of immigration, both legal and illegal. Economists broadly agree that declining birth rates in the United States make more immigration essential in order to stoke economic growth, keep productivity up, and bring in new workers to pay the taxes needed to fund retirement programs, including Social Security and Medicare.

“Other economic research has found that the recent surge in migration, both legal and illegal, may be contributing to job and economic growth that has consistently exceeded economist forecasts. While new migrants have overwhelmed the ability of some municipalities to absorb them, they also seem to be getting jobs, earning money, buying stuff, and contributing to economic growth.

“Many of the nation’s immigration laws and policies were put in place decades ago and are poorly suited to today’s migration patterns. Republicans and Democrats both exploit the issue for political gain, the main reason attempts to fix the system always flop. At least we can take solace in the prospect that all the migrants lining up and pounding on the door know that something's going right in the US economy.”

Instead of creating a viable immigration policy, one that is both fair and actually benefits the United States, we need to be more confident in American values, be willing to tailor such policies to foster our own economic growth… and stop using desperate migrants seeking to work hard here (for labor we actually need and do not have) as targets to blame for our own failings.

I’m Peter Dekom, and ever since alternative “facts,” blame and polarization have redefined who we are as Americans, we have developed a very bad habit of demanding politically expedient policies that constantly shoot ourselves in the foot… and other low places.