First, let’s state the obvious: Iran and her surrogates (the core of the Axis of Resistance), are a group of anti-Western terrorists who wish to drive Israel off the map and humiliate the United States (generally linked as Israel’s enabler) and our allies… pushing them out of the Middle East. Happily, bolstered by global supporters like Russia and China. Although the driving force behind this Axis is a Shiite-Islamic nemesis – led by Iran – its tentacles have reached into Sunni strongholds (e.g., Gaza), evidencing a willingness to overlook a schism between the mysticism of the Shia faith vs the fundamentalism of the vast Islamic majority Sunni following, destabilizing the entire region. Leaders on both sides of this Israel/Iran conflict seem to believe innocent civilians are expendable.
As I have noted before, when the US deposed Saddam Hussein (who led the 20% Sunni majority that ruled a mostly Shiite Iraq), we effectively elevated that Shiite group (Shiite majority Iran and Iraq, Shiite-led Syria and Lebanon and the other Iranian surrogates) to be the dominant power in the Middle East. On the cusp of having their own nuclear weapons, Iran accelerated the development of the necessary weaponized fissionable materials when, in 2018, the United States pulled out the 2015 accord that had theretofore successfully contained Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. It is a matter of time… assuming they do not already have nukes; they certainly have the missiles to deliver that payload.
Now, with an effective second front posing a new, wider war between Israel and that Axis of Resistance, Israeli PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu has drawn a red line in the sand against the massive launch of Hezbollah upgraded missiles from Southern Lebanon into Israel. Hezbollah’s escalation, ostensibly in support of Hamas and the civilians in Gaza, pushed Netanyahu to reciprocal escalation, putting the entire region at risk for a much broader war. Facing a continued corruption trial which has been stayed by these conflicts, Netanyahu has made it clear that he would prefer to escalate Israel’s military efforts rather than negotiate with his Shiite enemies.
Can Israel win against the Axis of Resistance? It clearly has a superior military (the IDF), heavily supplied by the US. It has nuclear weapons. But so did the United States when we lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan. So, let’s examine Israel’s position and what it has lost and may continue to lose if they continue this conflict. First, Israel’s economy is hitting its lowest point in half a century. With soldiers called up, so many Israeli companies are teetering. There’s a whole lot fewer consumers with money to spend, and Israel’s export market is thus trashed.
Secondly, despite its strength, Israel seems to have accepted that the Hamas-held hostages in Gaza are expendable and, despite international opprobrium, the slaughter of legions of innocent Gazans (a position seemingly adopted as to Lebanon as well) is just an ugly “necessity” as Israel simply “defends itself against terrorism.” Israel virtually assures a continuing death spiral by refusing entreaties by much of the rest of the world (including the United States) for a ceasefire (with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon) and a long-term peace predicated on a two-state solution for Palestinians within the land controlled by Israel. Netanyahu is clearly and profoundly against any such negotiations. Yet his track record to date, including an initial promise of a quick victory in Gaza and setting the impossible goal of eliminating Hamas entirely, is one of prolonged failure laced with a tsunami of images of dead children and decimated cities, where innocent civilians once lived.
Third, the best Israel can hope for is what seems to be a pyric victory… one that could make the power of the Axis of Resistance subside… until it regains the strength it may lose. Without a sustainable peace, wars will continue to erupt. But as evidenced by the direct damage in each of Iran and Israel, it is Israel that is suffering the greatest loss by reason of a war of attrition.
Fourth, even within her ally the United States, there is a rising anti-Isreal sentiment among younger voters, in favor of cutting off the US supply of weapon systems to Israel. They are not old enough to remember and admire tiny Israel fending off regional Arab nations fighting wars to eliminate Israel altogether… and surviving in triumph. All they see today is an arrogant and corrupt Netanyahu ordering mass slaughter against hapless innocents. Our November elections will be impacted by this trend. But the longer-term suggests that as these rising generations assume more political power, they will severely curtail US military support for Israel.
Fifth, there is a massive global increase of antisemitism, as Judaism is conflated (sometimes even by Jewish religious leaders) with pro-Israeli Zionism. Hate crimes in the US – and it is much worse in parts of Europe with substantial Jewish populations – have required synagogues to hire private security against a litany of violent antisemitic acts… and amped up police protection on top of that. Yet as anti-Israel campus riots have shown here, there are also many Jewish students who cannot tolerate Israel’s massive retaliatory slaughter of innocents. As polarized as we already were, this Middle Eastern conflict has polarized us further.
What has Iran, leader of the Axis of Resistance, lost? Almost nothing, but it has cemented its ties with America’s great protagonist, Russia, which has trained and supplied Hezbollah directly. Iran’s universities and advanced curricula offer much higher teaching standards than most American acknowledge; Iran has a tradition of academic excellence that goes back thousands of years. They are more than capable of manufacturing sophisticated weapons.
Excepting some relatively minor exchanges directly with Israel – including assassinations of leading Shiite figures by Israel’s Mossad – the vast majority of casualties have not touched Iran itself… but have inflicted serious losses “on the other side” among Iran’s surrogates and surrounding populations, mostly in Gaza, Southern Lebanon and Yemen. As between Iran and Israel, Iran’s greatest internal losses have been inflicted by US-led sanctions with minimal success. Though initially successful, US ties with other regional Arab states are fraying fast. Russia, China and North Korea are smiling. Logic would suggest that there is a much better path out of this. But did Israel’s targeted strike in Beirut, Lebanon, killing Hezbollah leader and founder Hassan Nasrallah, send a message of deterrence… or serve as an invitation to escalate? Not looking good.
I’m Peter Dekom, and while anger has escalated beyond all reason in this Middle Eastern debacle, common sense and realpolitik have left the building.
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