Hubris, Inane Assumptions, Bully Tactics and Backlash

 

Hubris, Inane Assumptions, Bully Tactics and Backlash

It Ain’t No Mandate; “for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction,” Isaac Newton’s 3rd Law of Motion

Let’s start we the reality that while we can definitely hurt rivals like China with massive tariffs, there are some harsh realities we need to face: China has now reached virtual parity with the United States on AI technology, and both Russia and China are ahead of us in hard-to-shoot-down hypersonic missiles, already showcased in a recent Russian attack on Ukraine. What’s more, as we raise immigration barriers for scientists and engineers (even where allowed, limiting their bringing their wives and children with them), living with a new administration that profoundly devalues science and immigrants, China is all over recruiting those experts into her orbit.

As the Wall Street Journal, in a featured November, 27th in-depth article by Bertrand Benoit, Liza Lin, Heather Somerville and Kim Mackrael, China is pulling a no-holds-barred effort to bring those STEM experts to China, knowing that the United States is no longer a country that wants or appreciates them. It is a tad startling to some nations, fearing national security threats and a huge leap forward for China’s military and manufacturing sectors:

“Executives at Zeiss SMT, which makes indispensable components to build the world’s most powerful semiconductors, got some troubling news last fall. Headhunters from Huawei Technologies, the Chinese tech firm, were trying to poach its employees... Staff with access to sensitive Zeiss know-how received LinkedIn messages, emails and calls from Huawei representatives, offering them up to three times their salaries to join the Chinese company, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

“The push triggered an investigation by German intelligence officials, who feared it could provide a back door for Huawei to access some of the world’s most sophisticated intellectual property. The investigation remains open, people familiar with the matter say... It was the latest sign that talent-poaching has become a crucial front in the battle between China and the West for tech supremacy.

“As Western governments make it harder for China to access sensitive technologies—a trend expected to continue under the administration of President-elect Donald Trump—many Chinese companies are trying to get ahead by luring away top engineers in areas such as advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence… Chinese firms are focusing on several tech hubs, including Taiwan, parts of Europe and Silicon Valley. Some obscure their Chinese origins by forming local ventures that hire the employees to avoid drawing attention from local officials, authorities say.” Remember, China is a harsh autocracy where her people are used to suffering.

The world is preparing workarounds, reverse tariffs and economic retaliation, and are assuming that with all the science skeptics and billionaires-with-an-agenda brought in as advisors and agency heads, the United States’ self-isolation will effectively and dramatically reduce our influence and power around the globe. If nothing else, the US is now no longer a trustworthy ally, and forces around the world are massing a post-Trump America. Many who supported his reelection are still living in denial that he would actually implement everything he pledges, even as Trump is very much aligning his administration to do just that. They believe that he is just gathering bargaining chips to bring the rest of the world to heel.

Just looking at the trade wars that may result from Trump’s “day one” tariffs, even on our friendly neighbors, they will make these countries and American consumers anxious… with good reason. As the avocado crop in California was devastated by fires and storms, guacamole may become a treasured delicacy. I wonder what Trump’s economics grades were at Wharton, since few among credible economists see the worlds as does Trump; they hardly look at tariffs as a “piggy bank.”

Mexicans are far from being the main source of undocumented migration – they are struggling with their own border crisis vis-à-vis Central America – and we are seriously dependent on Mexico for lots of American owned manufacturing and tons of agricultural goods. Writing for the November 27th Los Angeles Times, Kate Linthicum and Patrick J. McDonnell tell us that while recently elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum avoided direct criticism of Trump, she also warned of retaliatory levies:

“Bluff? Negotiating tactic? Or existential menace?... World leaders, economists and investors are struggling over how to view President-elect Donald Trump’s repeated threats to impose broad tariffs on imports to the United States… That question took on new urgency this week when Trump announced that he would hit the top three U.S. trading partners hard on his first day in office.

“In a post Monday on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he would levy a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico ‘until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this invasion of our Country!’… Mexico, China and Canada purchased more than $1 trillion in U.S. exports in 2023 and sent almost $1.5 trillion of goods and services in the other direction.

“Experts said Trump can unilaterally impose tariffs by claiming a national emergency, though he would almost certainly face legal and political challenges… It’s unclear how Trump could impose tariffs without violating the United-States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that he helped negotiate during his first term. Mexico and Canada could challenge tariffs under a dispute resolution mechanism that is part of their agreement. They could also lodge complaints with the World Trade Organization.” Think bullies generate cooperation without pushback? Right!

Further, as Trump entrusts national security threats to individuals of questionable expertise and even loyalty to the US and its Constitution, and with national healthcare helmed by quacks and conspiracy theorists with agendas that could kill thousands (or more) Americans in the likely reality of another epidemic or, worse, a pandemic. Trying to kill the Department of Education, as our global competitors are ramping up their educational institutions and academic standards, is just plain idiotic.

Will Trump’s hold over a MAGA-controlled Congress continue if Americans are watching extremes in “detain and deport,” rising prices from tariffs and the retaliatory tariffs, soaring construction costs as undocumented workers are pulled out of the country (think of the impact on housing) and healthcare emergencies from inept leadership? Remember the backlash from George W Bush’s second term: his off-the-wall pledge to privatize Social Security was wildly unpopular, his incursions into Iraq and Afghanistan (remember the WMDs?) with his infamous “mission accomplished” speech and his leaving office with the lowest end-of-term presidential approval level since such approvals have been measured?

I’m Peter Dekom, and as we may suffer in the interim, Donald Trump seems to be setting himself up for one the most massive citizen backlash realities in American history, if we survive the damage.