Disruption, Instability and Retribution – Trump’s Diplomatic Tools?

Disruption, Instability and Retribution – Trump’s Diplomatic Tools?

"I don't know what they would do at the negotiating table... if they are going to sit at the negotiating table with the aim of continuing war, then why invite them there?" 

 Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov about why European leaders were excluded from the US/Russian meeting in Saudi Arabia

Shifting sands or targeting with surgical precision? It’s no secret which nations have their priority enemies. For Israel, it is clearly Iran and its destabilizing surrogates. For Western Europe, the once Russian saber-rattling bear has now launched a full-scale war against a nation that borders the West – Putin’s Russia – is the priority one. But who is our primary enemy? Hardly Mexico or Canada, despite our own economic threats to nations we would actually have difficulty living without. Iran, a nation threatening to shove Israel back into the sea? Iran rises to our priority threat, according to Donald Trump, only if it assassinates him… in which event, Trump maintains, he has left standing orders to blow Iran off the face of the Earth should they succeed.

For anyone with the slightest international sense, there is only one nation that is powerful enough, sufficiently armed enough and, notwithstanding its own serious economic decline, wealthy enough to challenge American supremacy as a superpower. Xi Jinping’s China. Trump is watching China create workarounds against the dominant global financial trade structure (the US financial banking and currency transfer behemoth), trying to assemble a coterie of non-aligned nations – the ever-expanding BRICS group – into a force that could threaten that American system. One that could upend US sanctions and tariffs as well. What could possibly cut China at the knees in this effort? Replacing China’s Belt-and-Road initiative with a new, recalibrated USAID mission under the direct helm of the Department of State? Or has Trump dug too deep a hole to make that work? Nope, it’s even more obvious than that.

Let’s read some tea leaves. JD Vance’s recent tirade, at the Munich Security Conference against European complacency, had a clear subplot: reducing the US military commitment to Europe by withdrawing US forces and closing US bases in Europe (Trump has already announced a 20,000 US troop reduction)… thus forcing Europe to pick up its own military defense. So, if Russia is Europe’s primary enemy, what kind of signal does Vance’s chastising of Europe send? To Russia? And if the United States – particularly Trump’s admiration of brutal dictators – is not defending Europe from Russia and was willing to meet in Saudi Arabia without both Ukrainian or European officials… where the Russian-Ukraine war is clearly a hot topic… what’s message to Europe and the world? Even if Ukraine and Europe are added later.

China’s primary ally against the United States is (was?) Russia, not just because of its plentiful fossil fuel reserves or its sheer size and being the fourth most populous nation on the planet – after India (not militarily or economically as strong as China), China and the United States – but because of its massive modern military (including possible control of the Northwest Passage), however inadequate its track record against Ukraine might be. Before the Ukraine invasion, the new “alliance” between Russia and China sent shockwaves through the hearts of American policymakers. If there ever were a way to cut China down a giant notch, tariffs alone were unlikely to unseat that diplomatic initiative. And if there were a back door to reduce the influence of Iran and North Korea – both backing Russia in its annexation move – it would clearly be through Russia.

How, then, could the United States erode China’s growing influence, isolate China as it seeks to usurp its neighboring sea lanes and challenge the territorial integrity of China’s frightened neighbors (Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, etc.)? If you haven’t figured it out by now, I will just state the obvious: by having the United States cozy up to Russia, even if at the expense of Ukraine and Western Europe, we threaten China to its core. But not by cozying up so much that it leaves the United States without healthy bargaining power with its European allies. French President, Emmanuel Macron scheduled an “emergency meeting” in Paris for European leaders to discuss United States President Donald Trump:

“Leaders of eight major European countries met Monday [2/17] to coordinate a response, after being caught on their back foot by Trump’s opening gambit on Russia-Ukraine talks… Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said he ‘knew nothing about’ the peace discussions in the Middle East until they were announced publicly.

“‘I think Europe is realizing that they have to come up with a plan, quickly, and on their own to be ready for whatever comes next,’ said Sudha David-Wilp, vice president of external relations and senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund… ‘The mood was turning from bad to worse,’ said one European foreign policy expert who attended the Munich conference, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“European officials expected to be taken to task over low defense spending, but not to be left out of talks completely. The uncertainty is already spurring talks on loosening the EU’s budgetary deficit requirements to allow more spending on defense, the expert said… ‘There will probably be a series of announcements by Europeans in the upcoming days to signal to the Americans that they are to be taken seriously — but also to reassure each other,’ they said.” Laura KellyEllen Mitchell on The Hill, February 17th.

So, let’s see what is happening with this Trumpian strategy: 1. Despite NATO requirements, Trump has told Europe that the US is not automatically committed to defending Europe against Russia. 2. If there are going to be guarantees to Ukraine of its territorial integrity in the event of a peace accord, it may well fall on Europe’s shoulders to enforce, and if the war continues, it would be Europe’s problem going forward. 3. Trump has already ordered US troop reductions in Europe. 4. The US will pursue efforts to enhance its position against China, reacting to a general notion in Europe that protecting Taiwan is an American problem. 5. Détente (perhaps even an entente) with Russia is an American priority, even if it leaves Europe dangling in the wind. 6. This US effort is a huge motivator for Russia, lumbering under damaging US trade sanctions, to cut a deal with the US, ending the Ukraine war under favorable terms to Moscow. 7. American efforts benefit Russia’s desire to contain Europe. 8. While unreliable, US power rises accordingly. So… what do you think of those tea leaves? Not really enigmatic, un-American or difficult to discern.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as Trump has left Co-President Elon Musk to destabilize domestic policies, riding high on his own approval levels, Trump is having the best time reconfiguring the relative powers within the existing international landscape… without caring a whit what anyone thinks of the net result.