Fool’s Errand, Hardship, Layoffs, Instability, Isolation and Probable Recession

   

Fool’s Errand, Hardship, Layoffs, Instability, Isolation and Probable Recession

When Exactly Will the Majority of Republicans Get It?

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

Even if Trump’s wildly miscalculated tariff rates were repealed tomorrow, his whimsical nature of his billboard citing tariffs against American products solidified that the United States would lose massive credibility given how easily a rogue president could profoundly alter global trade… at any time. Experts looking at that billboard witnessed tariffs charged against sparsely- or unpopulated island nations that don’t export anything to the US. Russia wasn’t even on that list. As trade expert economists examined the tariffs he cited on April 2nd, which he claimed were supposed to be based on purported overseas tariffs being charged against us, appear to be totally unsubstantiated fabrications. What confused the numbers is that the Commerce Dept factored in our net trade deficit with the subject nation to determine the final result. Hence, the genuine opposing tariffs are buried in this combination. Even as Trump hinted that these tariffs would enhance our negotiation leverage, leadership around the world sent a different message: “enough already.” The prestigious UK publication, The Economist, perceived

The easily predictable layoffs have already begun after global stock markets (especially our own) took a nosedive. And sure there will be up days… but look at the big picture. Stellantis (Jeep-Chrysler) shut down their plants in Mexico and Canada and laid off hundreds of Michigan workers who manufactured key parts for cars made in those two countries. Supply chain disruptions, including goods already en route to the United States, have yet to be calculated. No one in the Trump administration could promise any near-term consumer price reductions, and experts suggested that the only benefit would be a severely weakened dollar, making imports even more expensive and our exports more attractive (in a trade war?). “Prepare for a period of hard times,” was the GOP refrain, but things are unlikely to get better under these new policies… ever!

Looking at the historical impact of massive tariff increases, it appeared to most who track such data, that even if the United States were to reshore massive manufacturing, it would take years to build or retrofit the necessary plants, and that would require corporate America to assume these tariffs are permanent… which most assume a Democrat in the White House would significantly reduce as soon as elected. As we learned from the Smoot-Hawley tariff imposed by Republican President Herbert Hoover in 1930 as his belief that this would end the Great Depression, more Americans lost their jobs, more banks failed, and more farms were foreclosed. FDR was the winner in the wholesale American rejection of Hoover’s policies. Trump touted that America was at its wealthiest per capita peak when tariffs were highest. That’s like comparing apples with machine parts. Relative “wealth” then would be deemed “poverty” today.

Indeed, where you find “expert” support for Trump’s tariffs, the explanation of the benefit from one Trump-supporting billionaire is extremely unsettling: “The investing mogul Ray Dalio said tariffs aren't just a matter of tax revenue — they're also a way for countries to prepare their economies for times of conflict and war… As the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on China, the European Union, and dozens of other regions on Wednesday [3/2], Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn post that import taxes are ‘necessary in times of an international great power conflict.’" Business Insider, April 3rd. Oh great, we should be preparing for WWIII, now having alienated most of our allies.

As US farmers reeled after Trump’s first term tariffs on China, the government wound up writing these same farmers massive subsidy checks. Brazil, with a massive agricultural area (Mato Grosso, in yellow in the above map), cheered for joy at Trump’s announcement, offering its export crops – enough to replace a very large portion of American farm output – without buyers’ being entangled in a tariff-driven trade war.

Even as the US Senate, with significant Republican support, passed a resolution restoring US-Canadian trade relations back to normal, challenging whether there really was an “emergency” enabling Trump to dictate tariffs. Speaker Mike “Donald is always right” Johnson (a huge believer that the United States should accept being a white Christian nationalist country), used a procedural move to make sure that resolution would never be considered by the House. Even with the recent election results (e.g. Florida), the GOP just ranted.

In a state that Trump carried in November, in an election that Elon Musk called as one percentage point difference between Wisconsin’s liberal candidate for that state’s supreme court and the MAGA/Trump choice, the liberal justice prevailed 55-45. Not believing that with Musk’s massive campaign support and that Wisconsin was perceived as Trump country, MAGA supporters fell back on their tired, worn-out, rigged election mantra. “MAGA Republicans are claiming that the Wisconsin election that saw liberal Judge Susan Crawford win a state Supreme Court seat was ‘rigged’ after ballots ran out at seven polling locations in Milwaukee.” Irish Star, April 2nd. They preferred their explanation rather than the obvious: no one planned on such a massive turnout in an off-year, special election. Voters were sending Mr Trump a message.

As Trump/Musk self-destruct – don’t worry about a Trump’s being elected for a third term; it will never happen – but the Democrats desperately need a plan, clear and unifying. Start with pushing DEI into the background, because if Dems do not get elected, they cannot help those most damaged by this vector. Eliminate high-earners and corporations from any tax cuts, relegating any tax reductions to those earning less than $500K/year. Restore all reductions to the infrastructure bill, and to incent the job creators, also restore the bulk of federally funded research, direct and through our great universities. Accept climate change as real and act accordingly. Oil stocks will continue to erode as alternative energy inevitably moves forward. And drill, baby, drill into restoring medical research, because as the only developed nation without universal healthcare, our relevant metrics are getting worse:

“Fifty years ago, life expectancy in the U.S. and wealthy European countries was relatively similar… That began to change around 1980. As European life expectancy steadily increased, the U.S. struggled to keep pace — and its life expectancy even began declining in 2014… Today, the wealthiest middle-aged and older adults in the U.S. have roughly the same likelihood of dying over a 12-year period as the poorest adults in northern and western Europe, according to a study published Wednesday [3/2] in The New England Journal of Medicine.” NBC New, April 2nd.

Focus on what’s good for average Americans and stop wasting taxpayer dollars on eliminating “woke” books from public libraries (even from our military colleges), renaming parks and even renaming an international body of water (the Gulf of _____), which name has existed for centuries. Keep government out of the “retribution” business. Give all Americans, particularly the red states who need it most, first rate disaster relief, full federal support for state public education, ease and efficiency in accessing the federal agencies with whom they deal the most and treat our veterans like the heroes they are. Restore our faith in the judicial system. And show you care, empathize and are not the radical leftist the MAGA folks believe. In the end, Trump taught us a really huge lesson: if you want to win, you have win voters’ ATTENTION first. Let the battle begin! 

I’m Peter Dekom, and every time you hear Donald Trump use the word “perfect,” you know either something went or is about to go terribly wrong.