The Good, the Bad & the Ugly – America’s El Salvador Template

 

The Good, the Bad & the Ugly – America’s El Salvador Template

“Mr. President, you have 350 million people to liberate… But to liberate 350 million people, you have to imprison some. That’s the way it works, right?” 

Salvadoran President, Najib Bukele, to Donald Trump during their April 14th meeting in the Oval Office

“We used to be afraid of the gangs… Now… we’re afraid of the state.” 

Victor Barahona, former Salvadoran inmate, who still doesn’t know why he was incarcerated for a year; he lost 70 lbs.

“This is the first time in as long as most people can remember that global portfolio allocators are saying ‘Hey, this could be the moment to switch your money out of American financial assets, into Europe.’”

Sebastian Mallaby, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

It is hardly an understatement that I oppose most of the Executive Order/Project 2025 frenzy that has fueled Trump 2.0 to date. And while some of what he has accomplished is positive, often it was done for the wrong reason. For example, at an impromptu meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Saloman, new Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa (and former al Qaeda operative) stood on the world stage with President Donald Trump. “Trump announced he would lift the crippling U.S. sanctions against Syria and urged al-Sharaa to meet specified conditions in hopes that it will stabilize the country. These conditions include normalizing relations with Syria's neighbors, including Israel, as well as the United States.” MSN News, May 14th. Trump’s reason: as a favor to the Crown Prince. Not what’s right. His move to engage with Iran on denuclearization is equally positive, although it was during Trump 1.0 that Trump abrogated the accord and enabled Iran to restart its nuclear enrichment program.

Both such efforts have the potential of stabilizing the region, and Trump picked up added credibility on his recent three-nation foray (each a monarchy) by ignoring a simultaneous opportunity to meet with Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, whose recent escalation of the Gaza war and pledge to break up that tiny Palestinian enclave into three separate sections has drawn a new level of global condemnation. Also, Trump’s ceasefire with Yemeni Houthis, his meeting with Arab leaders who are prioritize stopping the Gaza carnage, and Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Israel have rattled Israeli hardliners. Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu is obviously strained.

But Trump’s shoot-from-the-hip business transactional foreign policy is laced with hypocrisy. As he tells the Middle Eastern monarchs that the United States will not meddle in their internal affairs, his emissary to Europe, VP JD Vance, had no problem excoriating Germany and the rest of the European Union for repressing rightwing political movements (like Germany’s AfD) and their speech, even though this neo-Nazi resurgence is an anathema to nations decimated by Hitler in WW2. His unique refugee status accorded to white Afrikaner farmers, based on little evidence of any South African genocide, appears to be nothing more than a paean to white Christian nationalism. Moreover, while protecting our economic interests is a good priority, Trump’s efforts to implement that strategy seem only to resonate with autocratic states and primarily benefit Trump’s pack of oligarchs.

Nevertheless, it does seem that El Salvador’s President Bukele has become the new “replacement darling” (for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán) of Trump’s radical right. So, it merits looking at the recent transition of El Salvador from a gang-infested failing country to a relatively gang-free but severely repressive police state. Writing for the May 18th Los Angeles Time, Kate Linthicum, paints a more accurate picture: “But for all [Bukele’s] modern trappings — his embrace of Bitcoin, TikTok and slick promotional videos — Bukele’s critics say he’s just following the playbook of previous Latin American strongmen, including the military leaders who ruled El Salvador as a dictatorship from 1931 until the early 1980s.

“Bukele jails opponents, fires judges and has been implicated in corruption. He pushed for a court decision that paved the way for his reelection even though the country’s constitution prohibits it. Last week, he launched a crackdown on nonprofits, calling for 30% of their donations to be taxed… ‘He’s not a divergence,’ said Noah Bullock, the director of Cristosal, a human rights group. ‘He governs in the same way as past dictators and uses the same instruments of power. It’s a regime that tortures and kills and disseminates fear.’

“There is little doubt that Bukele’s mass arrests starting in 2022 helped dismantle the gangs that once held this country in a chokehold. And for that, most Salvadorans are thankful… But as part of his security push — which included asking Salvadorans to denounce suspected ‘terrorists’ via an anonymous tip line — tens of thousands of innocent people were wrongfully detained, human rights groups say.” As a lesson to Donald Trump, Bukele’s totalitarian efforts have not helped the Salvadoran economy as Linthicum illustrates:

“The poverty rate rose from 26.8% in 2019 to 30.3% in 2023. The country has the lowest levels of economic growth and foreign investment in of all of Central America, worse even than nearby Nicaragua, a dictatorship that has been pummeled by U.S. sanctions… While Bukele can claim some impressive projects, like a towering new Google office in San Salvador, the shaky rule of law has spooked other investors, said an adviser to foreign companies who spoke on the condition of anonymity: “They feel too much risk.”

“The perils for businesses were clear this month, after a highway renovation disrupted traffic and Bukele declared on X that transportation would be free nationwide… When some bus companies failed to comply, Bukele ordered the arrests of 16 company owners on charges of sabotage. They remain in jail… On a recent scorching afternoon, Erica Mendoza, 42, was waiting for a bus with her disabled husband. Mendoza, who earns about $8 a day, said she was grateful for the help with bus fare, and said she didn’t expect Bukele to solve El Salvador’s long-standing economic problems over night… ‘If there’s money we eat, if there’s not, we don’t,’ she said. ‘This is life and we’re used to it.’

“In recent years, his government has bought up multiple lots in the neighborhood to build what government officials say will be a new presidential residence… Enrique Anaya, a constitutional attorney who has criticized Bukele’s mass firings of judges and suspension of rights, said it’s clear that ‘his mission is clearly to stay in power as long as possible and to make himself scandalously rich.’

“Marco Rubio, Matt Gaetz and Donald Trump Jr. have made pilgrimage to El Salvador, and Republican commentator Tucker Carlson said Bukele ‘may have the blueprint for saving the world.’ Elon Musk insists that El Salvador’s crackdown ‘needs to happen and will happen in America.’… President Trump seems eager to replicate many Bukele strategies. An ongoing state of emergency declared by Bukele has suspended civil liberties, including due process. The White House announced it is ‘actively looking at’ suspending habeas corpus, the constitutional right for people to challenge their detention by the government.” Mr Bukele seems to have replaced a failing state with a different kind of failing state. Trump’s model for America? 

I’m Peter Dekom, and using Bukele’s El Salvador as a vision of perfection seems more typical of Central and South American dictators in that part of the world… but is a horrible fit for governance for the purportedly constitutional government that is supposed to be the United States.