Hey Kid, Wanna Buy a Drone?

 

Hey Kid, Wanna Buy a Drone?

Teaching our enemies how to fight us; our military’s weaknesses are increasingly clear.

“The Iranian arena serves as a living laboratory to test the effectiveness and efficiency of Chinese technology and data against advanced Western and American weapons.” 

Nadia Helmy, a China expert at Egypt’s Beni Suef University.

Aside from our most obvious vulnerabilities – failed leadership from a mercurial President and an arrogant and profoundly inexperienced Secretary of Defense/War – our strategic misunderstanding of how asymmetrical warfare can wear down our most expensive and rather sophisticated weapon systems has led us to a stalemate in our war against Iran. All this notwithstanding our battlefield experiences with cheap weapons against our state-of-the-art military in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan (conflicts we lost). China has nurtured sophistication alongside its development of cheap drone technologies that are defining a new era of combat.

Finally catching up with Russia and China, the United States is about to deploy its own hypersonic missile: the $15+ million Dark Eagle, which, together with its specialized launching platform can cost upwards of $2.7 billion. But the good news (?), is that it can reach those retained Iranian missiles and launching pad 1700 miles from its Persian Gulf coast, cruise at absurd speeds, hugging the ground, sneaking up on those Iranian sites that we “totally obliterated.” Major Pete has new ways to run up the costs of the war, if and when we resume full attacks.

Writing for the May 2nd Wall Street Journal, Timothy W. Martin, Thomas Grove and Chun Han Wong explain what the Iran War has taught our true enemies about how to combat the United States: “The Iran war has offered China, Russia and North Korea—the U.S.’s biggest security threats—a rare opportunity to learn about the capabilities and limitations of the U.S. military… The three powers have witnessed certain new American weapons in combat for the first time, including lightning-fast precision airstrikes assisted by artificial intelligence. But they have also seen how quickly the U.S. depleted key munitions, especially stockpiles of long-range Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors.

“And they have watched how Iran’s low-cost drones have been able to threaten the U.S.’s heavily fortified Gulf allies—a potential advantage for China in a Taiwan contingency… Asked what China is taking away from the Iran conflict, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the commander of American troops in the Pacific, told Congress: ‘I think they see the power of small, low-cost munitions.’” You simply have to do a side-by-side comparison between the Trump/Hegseth braggadocio of total military victory with the obvious Iranian pragmatic triumph: by closing the Strait of Hormuz with low tech weapons, Iran has strangled global oil prices and brought much of the world to its knees.

Unless the Strait can be reopened in the next two months, expect oil and fertilizer prices to bring the entire planet into recession. Iran has not, nor is it likely to, surrender. They still have their enriched uranium stash (albeit under rubble), maintain their surrogate state attacks, have inflicted major damage on regional US military bases, and their stocks of ballistic missiles and cheap drones appear intact. The only regime change we have seen is a much more hostile, entrenched and still very capable armed leadership, hell-bent on defying US pressure. And the world blames Trump for all these missteps… and the resulting oil and gas price spiral.

One of the most fascinating developments in this fundamental asymmetrical mainstay – air, land and sea drones – is the ability to eliminate over-the-air or satellite transmissions to control drone movement. Those transmissions facilitate tracking and downing these mobile and inexpensive weapons. While such traditional controls are still mostly in place, for example, the ability to use fishline thin fiber optic cables – unspooling for up to thirty miles from launch site to detonation target – is both cheap and quite effective. Russia and Ukraine have using such drones effectively.

“Many drones are susceptible to electronic jamming by air defenses. Jamming can cause a drone to crash or return to its point of origin… Fiber-optic drones are not piloted via, for example, GPS signals or radio control. They have a thin cable that connects an operator directly to the drone, making it impossible to electronically jam.

The drones are not infallible because the wind — or other drones — can cause the cables to tangle… But, ‘if you know what you’re doing, it’s absolutely deadly,’ said Robert Tollast, a drone expert and researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, explaining how the drone can fly low and creep up on a target… Experts say militaries must either intercept the drones, which is difficult due to their small size and short flight path, or find a way to snip the nearly invisible cable…

“An Israeli military official told AP the fiber-optic drones are a relatively new threat during the latest round of fighting with Hezbollah. Hezbollah seems to have turned to them because Israeli air defenses have been successful against larger and more powerful rockets, missiles and other drones, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with military guidelines.

“Israel believes the drones are made locally and are easy to produce — requiring little more than an off-the-shelf drone, a small amount of explosives, and transparent wire that is readily available on the consumer market, he said… He called the drones the biggest threat to troops inside Lebanon but said the Israeli military is working on technological solutions. In the meantime, Israel is taking measures on the ground to defend troops, such as adding nets and cages to military vehicles. The fiber-optic drones are the latest part of a cat-and-mouse race as Israel’s high-tech defenses race to intercept new threats, especially ones that are less sophisticated.

“Ran Kochav, a former head of the Israeli military’s air defense command, said Israel is failing in its attempts to defend against the fiber-optic drones… ‘They fly very low and very fast, and they are very small, it’s very difficult to detect them, and even after they’re detected, they are really hard to track,’ he said… Ali Jezzini, a journalist specializing in security and military affairs who closely follows Hezbollah’s capabilities, estimated that the drones used by the group cost between $300 and $400 each. He added that they appear to be manufactured locally using 3-D printing technology, in addition to readily available electronic components typically used for civilian purposes but capable of dual-use applications.” Associated Press, May 1st. And yes, this same technology is beginning to be deployed by Iran, many using Chinese designs.

I’m Peter Dekom, and in the end, our mismanagement of the war against Iran, our failure to anticipate the obvious tactical and strategic choices that have been and often still are available to Iran has led to a war that defies the Trump/Hegseth cabal of historical, military and cultural ignorance, pretty much leaving Iran calling the shots.