Thailand, a constitutional monarchy since 1932, is generally seen as a peaceful country that has never been conquered. A tourist haven, rich with royal palaces, Buddhist temples, spectacular canals, lush tropic forests, a warm climate, amazing beaches, world-class cuisine, mountain getaways, reasonable prices and exceptionally friendly people. Oh did I mention that a major part of the capital city, Bangkok, has become a “live firing zone” (the Thai military description) as part of a period of ever-escalating civil unrest as poor and disenfranchised citizens (“red-shirts,” mostly from the countryside) challenge the legitimacy of the incumbent government: “Thai troops on [May 14th] fired tear gas and bullets at protesters, who responded with stones, slingshots and homemade rockets, turning parts of downtown Bangkok into a battlefield as the military tried to tighten its cordon around a broad area where the protesters have camped for weeks… Sixteen people [29 as of May 16th and rising ] were killed and 141 wounded [221 and rising as well], according to the government-run Erawan medical center, in some of the worst violence in two months of unrest. The standoff has paralyzed the Thai government and further fractured a socie ty struggling to cope with the growing demands of its poor… The fighting followed an assassination attempt [the day before] on a renegade general who had declared himself a protector of the protesters before he was critically wounded by a sniper’s bullet.”
On an historical plain, poverty is a relatively recent phenomenon – primarily a creature of the late 20th century and into the present day. With a countryside rich in food literally growing off the trees, fish in streams, lakes and ocean waters and relatively sparse population for most of recorded time, hunger and housing were never real issues for most of the region’s history. But as economic success and technological upgrades became the mantra for most of emerging Asia, the brutal regimes of Burma (Myanmar) and Cambodia (Kampuchea) fell back into the dark ages, North Korea never left, and Thailand struggled with an ever-polarizing society and a language barrier (very few non-Thais can read or write Thai, a tonal language, and not enough Thais are fluent in any other tongue to matter), stagnating as regional powers like China, Singapore, Vietnam and India accelerated into the modern world. Political instability, corruption and serial coups d'état became the norm in this tiny country.
Today’s political unrest – a tangible expression of Thailand’s falling behind – really came home to root in 1997, when a new constitution was implemented to create modern checks and balances, a stronger and more independent judiciary and a more orderly parliamentary process. The 2001 election was described as the cleanest and most corruption-free election in the nation’s history. It also began the ascendency of Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire businessman (who once owned the famous UK Manchester United soccer franch ise), who oddly became a populist prime minister, implementing such programs as healthcare reform. The poor and disenfranchised loved him. The 2001 election produced the first Thai government ever to serve out their full elected four-year term. The 2005 election, which reelected Thaksin, did not produce the same result. In 2006, claiming election fraud and corruption, a military junta deposed the elected government, took power and declared martial law.
In 2007, the junta forced through what they called the new “permanent constitution,” supported by a referendum that gave marginal validity to the new government structure. The political electoral process that followed – in 2008 – was a joke. Wikipedia: “The People's Power Party (Thailand), led by Samak Sundaravej formed a government with five smaller parties. Following several court rulings against him in a variety of scandals, and surviving a vote of no confidence, and protesters blockading government buildings and airports, in September 2008, Sundaravej was found guilty of conflict of interest by the Constitutional Court of Thailand (due to being a host in cooking TV program), and thus, ended his term in office. He was replaced by PPP member Somchai Wongsawat. As of October 2008, Wongsawat was unable to gain access to his offices, which were occupied by protesters from the People's Alliance for Democracy. On December 2, 2008, Thailand's Constitutional Court found the ruling Peoples Power Party guilty of electoral fraud, which led to the dissolution of the party according to the law.
“After defections from smaller parties the opposition Democrats Party was able to form a government, a first for the party since 2001. The leader of the Democrat party, and former leader of the opposition, Abhisit Vejjajiva was appointed and sworn-in as the 27th Prime Minister, together with the new cabinet on 17 December 2008.” That change hardly satisfied a growing mass of frustrated and impoverished Thais who maintained that none of the post-coup governments were legitimate. Civil unrest simmered in the background, surfacing every now and again, but signaling a building level of frustration that augured badly for the incumbent government. Deposed and exiled prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, is said to have provided financial backing to his red-shirt constituency which, according to some, resulted in the explosive set of protests, noted above, that began in earnest on April 10th.
Is this once peaceful country on the verge of being torn apart at the seams in a rising possibility of a full-on civil war? The Times: “If it is not contained, the violence could widen into the kind of broader conflict that the government has been trying for weeks to avoid. Just several days ago, it appeared the long sit-in might end peacefully when the government offered to move up elections, a proposal that won tentative support from protest leaders… But that support began faltering even before the general was shot, as the opposition movement bickered over whether the government was doing enough to meet its demands, including the dissolution of Parliament an d the holding of a new election… In response, the government withdrew its offer of an early election and said it would no longer negotiate with the red shirts.”
Bitterness has increasingly polarized the haves from the have-nots. The deaths and injuries have only served to harden each side’s position, and these profoundly deep and hostile feelings are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. Time will tell if this vacation playground returns to normal or transitions into a combat zone. I am saddened by this violence, the barriers to reconciliation and the potential destruction of one my favorite countries on earth. Bangkok has about 7 million people (almost 12 million if you look at the greater metropolitan area) out of a total of 62 million for the entire country, and this capital city is paralyzed. Unrest is spreading fast; the Thai state has now imposed “emergency rules” in 17 of the country’s 76 provinces.
One ray of hope: On May 16th, Red Shirt protesters suggested that if the Thai military would end their violent crackdown, they would entertain U.N. mediation; the Thai military accepted the possibility of U.N. intervention… but not with any preconditions. The May 16th Washington Post adds this reality-check: “Talks between the government and the protesters have a history of collapsing. A deal to end the violence was so close a week ago that some protest leaders had begun packing their bags to go home… Red Shirt demonstrators, it seemed, had forced the Thai government to call an early election. But that deal foundered on last-minute demands from leaders of the Red Shirts… Differences between protest leaders and the government now seem all but irreconcilable, according to some diplomats and academics in Bangkok.” The NY Times (May 16th) quickly quashed any hope of any short-term cease fire: “Heavy fighting and explosions were reported in several areas of Bangkok on [May 16th] night in the deadliest and most prolonged conflict in Thailand in decades.”
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