That Sinking Feeling

On March 26^th, an explosion rocked and then sank a South Korean Navy warship – the Cheonan (pictured above) – near the North/South Korean border. 46 sailors went to their death – the worst military disaster between the two nations since the Korean War ended in a truce in 1953; the war itself was never officially terminated (a state of war technically still exists). The North disavowed any involvement in this sinking, but an international civilian-military investigating team found strong evidence that the source of the destruction was a torpedo with North Korean markings (evidence released on May 20^th). The North has already issued a statement that the evidence was fabricated and that any attempt to retaliate would result in “all out war.”

The North is a clearly a nuclear power with a long history of saber-rattling and making outlandish threats. North Korea would, however, be no match for the 28,500 American forces stationed in the South combined with the South Korean military if it really came down to an actual conflict. If the North were to pull the nuclear trigger, it is unlikely that it could survive any retaliatory strike, but the resulting chaos, death and destruction would be monumental, mostly heaped on the suffering population of the north.

The official reactions were obvious: “South Korea ‘will take resolute countermeasures against North Korea and make it admit its wrongdoings through strong international cooperation,’ [also pledging to take ‘stern action,’ South Korean President Lee Myung-bak] said during a call with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd … The White House called the sinking an unacceptable ‘act of aggression’ that violates international law and the 1953 truce. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared his support for South Korea, calling North Korea's actions ‘inexcusable.’… China, North Korea's traditional ally, called the sinking of the naval ship ‘unfortunate’ but stopped short of backing Seoul.” Ao lNews.com (May 20^th). Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went one step further: “‘Let me be clear,’ Clinton said in her first public comments on the March 26 attack. ‘This will not be and cannot be business as usual. There must be an international -- not just a regional -- response… ‘I think it is important to send a clear message to North Korea that provocative actions have consequences,’ Clinton added. ‘We cannot allow this attack on South Korea to go unanswered by the international community.’” Washington Post (May 21^st).

What’s really going on here? What kind of idiot would intentionally sink a South Korean naval vessel and expect no consequences, especially a leader in a super-impoverished nation that is reeling from economic sanctions and global condemnation from its recent nuclear tests? The kind of idiot who needs support from his military – mostly hardliners itching for the world to shudder at their might – to effect his goal to place his virtually unknown son as the next leader of one of the darkest and most nefarious nations on earth. Dear Leader or Great Leader or Fearless Leader Kim Jong-il is dying. He inherited his mantle from his father Kim Il-sung and now wishes to pass the baton to his son, Kim Jong-un, who is still in his twenties. The North Korean military isn’t a powerless faction within the North Korea n hierarchy; without their blessing, the Kim-to-Kim transfer cannot take place. His hardline actions reflect the hardliners he is trying to placate.

Dear Leader’s ace-in-the-hole? China. While China is uncomfortable with the concept of “succession by inheritance” in a communist world and further irritated at North Korea’s rogue approach to the rest of the world, the PRC is equally uncomfortable about the U.S. troop presence so close to its southern border and the fact that U.S. foreign policy continues to try and exert influence in China’s backyard (North Korea is under its protective wing). Kim is walking a delicate line, counting on China to hold back a politically and economically weakened United States (where China literally holds the U.S. economy at bay with the purchase of U.S. deficit debt in the trillions of dollars). Note how mild the Chinese response was to the clear North Korean attack, and given its dependence on the Peoples Republic, the U.S. really can’t make a decisive move that China would abhor. Russia too is uncomfortable with the U.S. presence near its border as well.

Maybe the U.S. and South Korean should hold joint military exercises in a show of force. So what? They’re unlikely to attack the North, particularly if China and Russia make it clear that they would support the North. Maybe there will new sanctions – imposed through the U.N. or otherwise. So what? What’s left that can be done to squeeze the North? And anyway, both Russia and China are permanent members of the U.N. Security Council… and each has a veto right.

One note that you may have missed however: Japanese Prime Minister Yukio reversed his campaign promise to move a U.S. base out of Okinawa. After a few skirmishes with Chinese forces in and the over the waterways separating China and Japan and notably after clear blame for the sinking of the South Korean vessel was established, Japan reluctantly accepted the need for a continued U.S. military presence on its soil: “‘There is pretty substantial understanding among the Japanese people about the nature of some of the challenges they face on the Korean Peninsula and [with a] rising China in their backyard,’ said a senior U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity. ‘I think recent developments, if anything, h ave provided a substantial reminder of what was needed to the new leadership about what we are facing collectively in Asia.’” Washington Post (May 23^rd). Hmmmm.

I’m Peter Dekom, and this transition of power tilting toward China is both fascinating and disturbing.