The Fief that Stole Libya?

In the United States, fiefs often appear as school districts (we have about 13 thousand of them). In Afghanistan, there are local warlords and the ubiquitous Taliban. And in Libya, factions from different tribes or villages have divvied up some pretty major local assets, even as rebels attempt to present a unified face to the rest of the world: “Fighters from the western mountain city of Zintan control the airport. The fighters from Misurata guard the central bank, the port and the prime minister’s office, where their graffiti has relabeled the historic plaza ‘Misurata Square.’ Berbers from the mountain town Yafran took charge of the city’s central square, where they spray-painted ‘Yafran Revolutionaries.’” New York Times, August 30^th. Locals in Tripoli are equally concerned with forces from other villages challenging control of their own city.

The problem with dictators in third and second world nations is that they are very careful not to allow bodies of competent political forces rise to answer the succession question. It’s usually just family… or no real change at all (e.g., in Egypt, the leader has emerged from the military in every instance since the monarchy was overthrown in the early 1950s). So when they are pushed out the door, there is a power/competency vacuum that needs to be filled. Often the most competent available political, military or police forces were part of the brutal repression that is being destroyed, leaving untried and nascent leaders to struggle to create what should follow. Factionalism stems from the double-edged sword of feelings: 1. entitlement based on strength, pride and will and 2. fear about how such factions will fare against others with similar interests to govern in the post-overthrow world. Better have a bargaining chip when the new political configuration is up for grabs after the dictator is gone.

Libya is no exception: “A week after rebels broke into Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s former stronghold, much of its territory remains divided into fiefs, each controlled by quasi-independent brigades representing different geographic areas of the country. And the spray paint they use to mark their territory tells the story of a looming leadership crisis in the capital, Tripoli… The top civilian officials of the Libyan rebels’ Transitional National Council — now styling itself as a provisional government to be based in the capital — are yet to arrive, citing personal safety concerns even as they pronounce the city fully secure.” NY Times. In addition to tribal and regional factionalism, you have schisms forming between pro-Western secularists and their militant Islamist opposites, the latter with power and theocracy on their minds. These fundamentalists may even have a less-than-secret yearning for those lovely chemical and maybe biological weapons Qaddafi is said to have stashed.

Governments around the world are beginning to recognize the Transitional Nation Council (TNC) as the official government of Libya, granting foreign aid and releasing former Qaddafi-controlled foreign bank accounts to this particular governing body. But the TNC is hardly in charge. When Qaddafi ruled, he actually used the internal tribal rivalries to keep his own power intact. Rather than attempt to unify his nation, he played favorites among tribes, reinforcing those who played ball and help sustain his dictatorship, repressing others. In recent months, rebel forces often acted independently of each other, attacking Qaddafi forces in their own towns and villages, only coming together at in the final moments to take over Tripoli.

The good news is that the factions are not fighting each other… yet. But as people step up to take leadership roles within the TNC, suspicions arise: “Early steps toward unifying the brigades under a common command have brought out latent divisions among rebel leaders. Some became apparent when a fighter named Abdel Hakim al-Hasadi, sometimes known as AbdelHakim Belhaj, was named commander of a newly formed Tripoli Military Council.

“Several liberals among the rebel leadership council complained privately that Mr. Hasadi had been a leader of the disbanded Libyan Islamist Fighting Group, which rebelled against Colonel Qaddafi in the 1990s. Some said they feared it was the first step in an attempt at an Islamist takeover. They noted that Mr. Hasadi was named commander by the five battalions of the so-called Tripoli Brigade, rather than by any civilian authority. And they complained about the perceived influence of Qatar, which helped train and equip the Tripoli Brigade and also finances Al Jazeera.” NY Times.

Aside from supporting NATO forces with its missile and airstrikes, the United States is remaining in the background in this transitional moment, releasing bank funds to the TNC but not contributing any foreign aid or offering transitional advisory support. These are pivotal days in another “now what do we do since we won” aftermath in the summer following the Arab Spring. Is democracy in the air? Theocracy? Pro- or anti-Western politics, even though it was NATO support that cracked Qaddafi’s walls? Tribalism? Or will there be a return to the “same old, same old.” Time will tell.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the stories behind the headlines are often just as interesting as those “big picture” reports everyone else is talking about.