“The Heavy Damage Done to the Fabric of Peace”

The words of conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacting to the mob attack against the Israeli embassy in Cairo on September 10^th, in which among other things, the Israeli flag was ripped apart and burned. Simply put, Israeli is facing some of the greatest challenges since its inception, threats that possibly eclipse the wars of 1967 and 1973. It appears to be on the wrong side of history as its Arab neighbors are experiencing regime changes that are no longer willing to contain threats to Israel on behalf of American pressure. An up-coming United Nations General Assembly vote (which may surface first in a membership vote at the Security Council level) on recognizing Palestinian autonomy and nationhood is heading to a decisive moment, and attempts by Britain and the United States to derail or postpone that vote seem to have failed.

Israel is surrounded by reinvigorated hostility – amplified as her leadership continues to expand West Bank settlements against near-unanimous global condemnation (including the U.S.) – and diplomatic failures. “Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador a week ago over Israel’s refusal to apologize for a deadly raid last year on a Turkish ship bound for Gaza in which nine Turks were killed. The storming of the embassy in Cairo on [September 10^th] was precipitated by the killing of three Egyptian soldiers along the border by Israeli military forces pursuing terrorism suspects.” New York Times, September 10^th.

With Cairo in shambles, and Turkish anger rising, Israel’s relations with two essential regional Muslim powers are teetering. Further, because of its failures in both Iraq and Afghanistan and its loss of economic power the recent collapse, the United States has lost sufficient prestige to exert its protective umbrella over this small Jewish Mediterranean state. With caches of weapons unaccounted for in recent successful Arab insurgencies and the continued rise in stature of saber-rattling, near-nuclear-ready Iran, the dangers to Israel’s very survival have never been higher. Eyeing coming expected oil shortages in coming years from a sea of rising demand, Europe no longer appears to be willing to join the United States automatically in protecting Israeli interests.

The recent attacks in Cairo were striking in their intensity and their result. Peace had reigned between Egypt and Israel for over three decades. Police were simply unable to stop the throng. “The diplomatic crisis, in which winds unleashed by the Arab Spring are now casting a chill over the region, was crystallized by the scene of Israeli military jets sweeping into Cairo at dawn on Saturday to evacuate diplomats after the Israeli Embassy had been besieged by thousands of protesters… It was an image that reminded some Israelis of Iran in 1979, when Israel evacuated its embassy in Tehran after the revolution there replaced an ally with an implacable foe.” NY Times.

These new populist Arab movements and the rising anti-American sympathy they have generated from smaller nations worldwide seem to have combined to debilitate U.S. power to act as a regional “moderate” force in the Palestinian quest for autonomy. Simply put, Israel is running out of both local options and the power of her allies to intervene; she has never been more alone in global politics. Israel’s hard line has lost her most of her eroding international sympathy, but local conservatives – sensing a go-it-alone self-defense necessity – appear to believe that military toughness is their only remaining avenue for survival. “Hardline Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman warned [September 14^th] that if the Palestinians persist with their plan to seek UN membership as a state, there will be ‘harsh and grave consequences.’” lbnelert.com, Sept. 14^th. He did not elaborate on exactly what he meant. It’s a highly volatile moment in global tension, one that would take very little to ignite into total war. But this time, the external forces have never been better-armed, unified or more determined.

To make matters worse for the United States, the “Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, announced [September 16^th] that he would seek [U.N.] membership for a state of Palestine from the United Nations Security Council next week, putting him on a collision course with Israel and the United States as both face an Arab world in turmoil.” New York Times, September 17^th. Unless a diplomatic miracle occurs, this will literally force the United States to ‘veto’ on behalf of Israel and thus eliminate American credibility with most of the emerging world and destroy any potential remaining viability it might still have as a regional mediator. Abbas can then fall back simply to the General Assembly, where admission to the U.N. is not decided, but where recognition of nationhood is highly likely. There is, however, another path, although it is unlikely that there is enough time to take these steps before a U.N. vote.

“[A]s the months of Arab Spring have turned autumnal, Israel has increasingly become a target of public outrage. Some here say Israel is again being made a scapegoat, this time for unfulfilled revolutionary promises… But there is another interpretation, and it is the predominant one abroad — Muslims, Arabs and indeed many around the globe believe Israel is unjustly occupying Palestinian territories, and they are furious at Israel for it. And although some Israelis pointed fingers at Islamicization as the cause of the violence, Egyptians noted Saturday that Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, distanced themselves from Friday’s protests and did not attend, while legions of secular-minded soccer fans were at the forefront of the embassy attacks.

“‘The world is tired of this conflict and angry at us because we are viewed as conquerors, ruling over another people,’ said Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, a Labor Party member of Parliament and a former defense minister. ‘If I were Bibi Netanyahu, I would recognize a Palestinian state. We would then negotiate borders and security. Instead nothing is happening. We are left with one ally, America, and that relationship is strained, too.’” NY Times. Some call this appeasement; others say it the only way to survive. What’s your opinion?

I’m Peter Dekom, and in this changing world, the power that was doesn’t appear to be the power that will be.