The Islamic Autumn

If the Arab Spring was shattering for nationhood across the Middle East, the Islamic Fall is nothing more than an amplification of what began a long time ago. As Arab leaders distance themselves from the brutal Hafez al-Assad regime in Syria, some mildly asking for him to curtail his tactics against civilians while others demanding that he and his family step down, local leadership are acutely aware that backing dictatorial whim is the short ride to their own potential demise.

Yemen is the latest re-escalation of civil war, even as the President (in power for 33 years!) returns after three months of medical treatment in Saudi Arabia after an assassination attempt: “A day after President Ali Abdullah Saleh returned to this battered country calling for a cease-fire, his forces escalated attacks on the opposition on Saturday, leaving more than 40 people dead across the capital….The uprising that has torn this country apart in the last seven months appeared to have entered a new, violent phase, raising fears of an urban civil war. A surge in fighting in the past week has claimed more than 100 lives and left the city on edge.

“Mr. Saleh, who had previously agreed to step down and then reneged, issued an order on Saturday for the removal of blockades and checkpoints, and the withdrawal of ‘all army and security personnel’ to their barracks, the state-run Saba news service reported. But there was no sign of a withdrawal or other easing of tensions, and many Yemenis were skeptical of the president’s professions of peacemaking.” New York Times, September 24^th.

The complicity of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, suborning the Haqqani terrorist network in recent coordinated and devastating attacks against the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul, tells you how deep the fear of not cooperating with militant populists can be for an incumbent Islamic political regime. The Saudi monarchy, trembling in fear as Libya and Tunisia violently ousted the equivalent of their own dictatorial and absolute power, is searching desperately for giving just enough to stem the tide of rebellion in their own world. In this country that stones adulterers to death, publicly chops off the hands of thieves, requires women to be veiled and always escorted in public by a male member of their family in a world where women cannot drive or vote, Saudi Arabia has just announced: “Saudi King Abdullah [pictured above] has given the kingdom’s women the right to vote for first time in nationwide local elections, due in 2015… The king said in an annual speech on [September 25^th] before his advisory assembly, or Shura Council, that Saudi women will be able to run and cast ballots in the 2015 municipal elections.” Washington Post, September 25^th.

As Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas begins his long press at the United Nations for recognition of his country as a separate state and full membership status, leaders in Islamic nations are beginning to pay enough attention to the demands of their local constituents – virtually all of whom are sympathetic to Palestinian aspirations and openly hostile to Israel – and providing “enough” (they hope) to remain in power. They are trying to tip the scales sufficiently against the risks of armed insurrection against enough token give-aways to placate their people. One sure way of doing that, these days (notwithstanding US support for rebels in the Libyan revolt) is to distance national support for anything America wants in the region. Weakened by economic woes and hated for imposing its military globally to enforce its political aims, America is walking on eggshells these days… in the oil-rich part of the world, where even Europeans are changing their tunes.

I’m Peter Dekom, and never before have we needed such finesse in our diplomatic efforts with nations who are terrified at our campaign slogans carried in the global press.