Kenya Dig It?

A former British colony, Kenya has enjoyed relative stability as a democracy since achieving independence in 1963. There have been a few blemishes along the way – like the 2007 riots in the slums of Nairobi against the political dominance of the Kikuyu tribe or the 1998 East African bombings of U.S. embassies by groups linked with al Qaeda – but for the most part, Kenya has been among the successful governments in all of Africa. Climate change in the northern reaches of Kenya have recently produced drought and despair, but these negative experiences are nothing compared with the complete and seemingly perpetual disarray and dysfunction that we call Somalia.

Somalia is the poster child for drought, famine, extreme poverty, disease, war lords (with rape, pillaging and murder on their minds), terrorism, piracy on the high seas and uncontrollable chaos. Danger lurks in every nook and cranny of this country, where misery, death and destruction are simply a part of daily life. Attempts to tame this wild beast, extinguish its attractiveness for suborning terrorism and giving safe haven to some of the world’s worst (including Osama bin Laden’s fighters in his day), has simply met with failure. Picture the aborted 1993American mission (18 U.S. soldiers died) – the Battle of Mogadishu – a to subdue and capture Somali warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid depicted in the 2001 epic film, Black Hawk Down, and you can get a feel for the chaos that never left Somalia. Humanitarian and United Nations peace-keeping efforts have all failed, and today, Somalia has descended further into the depths of desperation and despair.

Oh, and one more thing, Somalia sits on Kenya’s northern border, creating a dangerous no-man’s-land where kidnapping and extortion are commonplace. That Kenya is building a massive new harbor facility just 60 miles south of this porous border is clearly a further invitation to disaster. If Somali pirates and war lords feast on any semblance of wealth passing near their shores or borders, this new port facility would seem to be in jeopardy. Initially using the accelerating spate of border kidnappings as their excuse to mount a military invasion across the border that began on October 16^th (following the kidnapping of four seaside tourists), Kenya has begun an effort to extinguish the power of local war lords and militants that threaten their economic and political goals. They are venturing into a land that no recent military force has been able to tame, but they feel they have no other choice: “Kenyan officials said it was becoming impossible to coexist with a failed state next door. They consider the Shabab [affiliated with al Qaeda], a ruthless militant group that controls much of southern Somalia, a ‘clear and present danger,’ responsible for piracy, militant attacks and cross-border raids.” New York Times, October 26^th.

Claiming strategic backing from the United States and France (both countries have denied such support, but the U.S. has been mounting drone strikes against the Shabab from a civilian airport in Ethiopia for some time now), Kenyan forces have pressed into Somalia, but the Shabab have pushed back in ways that suggest that the Kenyan effort may backfire: “‘The invasion was a serious miscalculation, and the Kenyan economy is going to suffer badly,’ said David M. Anderson, a Kenya specialist at Oxford… The Shabab, who have pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda, have killed hundreds in suicide attacks in Somalia and are now vowing to punish Kenya, much as they struck Uganda last year for sending peacekeepers [into Somalia].

“There have already been two grenade attacks in Nairobi, which Kenyan officials said were the work of Shabab members, and this usually laid-back capital city has shifted into war mode. Security guards peer into purses at supermarkets, shopping centers are deserted because many Kenyans are now scared to congregate in public, and the American government has warned of ‘an imminent threat of terrorist attacks’ at malls and nightclubs.” NY Times. Military experts are suggesting the Kenya went in “too big” and with too much publicity, inviting a strong and desperate response. The suggestion was that smaller, clandestine surgical strikes to send a message would have been more effective. Indeed, Pentagon officials, who have distanced themselves from this effort, have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Given America’s own rather consistent failure to subdue illusive terrorists, one has to question what Kenyan authorities were thinking with the present military movement.

I’m Peter Dekom, and it does appear to be strange that even Kenyan forces have seemed to skip over the recent history of how to deal with terrorist groups.