Saudi Duty II

Built from an exceptionally conservative Sunni faith – Wahabbism (an ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam developed by an 18^th century cleric) – the Saudi royal family was the product of a successful single tribe that unified the divergent and often-warring tribal factions that populated the Arabian Peninsula in the early 20^th century. They are indeed absolute monarchs whose power stems from the vast wealth accumulated, beginning in the mid-20^th century and continuing into the present, from the largest oil reserves on earth. A consistent ally of the United States and the Western world, Saudi Arabia is caught in a time warp. With literally thousands of Saudi princes, many of whom have received exceptional educations at the best universities on earth, there has been a struggle between extremely old visions of social structure and the pull of the modern world.

Applying some of the most conservative interpretations of Islamic law – Sharia – thieves have their hands sliced off and adulters face death-by-stoning in public ceremonies. Women cannot drive cars or be in public unless accompanied by a male member of their families (and they are covered from head to toe) and until recently, have been unable to vote. But as the Arab Spring brought revolution to other absolute rulers in the region, as regimes toppled, Saudi Arabia faced the push-pull of a move to reform and liberalize to dissuade rebellion, on the one hand, and the desire to crack down (a la Syria) on nascent and perhaps destabilizing liberalizing elements in Saudi society, on the other.

87-year-old King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud has been the relatively moderate balancer of interests in this seemingly anachronistically-governed land. It was Abdullah who brokered the right for women to vote (not yet implemented) and has walked the fine line between reform and holding the party line against liberalization. His named successor, 80-year-old crown prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, was expected to follow in King Abdullah’s path, walking that difficult middle ground, between the pressure to change and the desire to maintain Saudi society in strict adherence to traditional ways.

On October 22^nd, Sultan died while undergoing treatment in New York, and the issue of succession became critical. According to tradition, likely to be followed, the new heir-apparent, Sultan’s half brother, Prince Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud (pictured above), has become the center of attention. But unlike the King and Sultan, Nayef is viewed as anti-reformist and generally as a hardliner: “Nayef, 78, has earned U.S. praise for unleashing the internal security forces against suspected Islamic extremist cells in Saudi Arabia, which was home to 15 of 19 of the Sept. 11 hijackers. Yet he brought blistering rebukes in the West for a 2002 interview that quoted him as saying that ‘Zionists’ — a reference to Jews — benefited from the 9-11 attacks because it turned world opinion against Islam and Arabs.

“Nayef also has expressed displeasure at some of Abdullah’s moves for more openness, saying in 2009 that he saw no need for women to vote or participate in politics. It’s a view shared by many Saudi clerics, who follow a strict brand of Islam known as Wahhabism. Their support gives the Saudi monarchy the legitimacy to rule over a nation holding Islam’s holiest sites.”

“‘Nayef is more religious, and is closer to the Saudi groups who are very critical of the king’s decisions regarding women and other steps he’s taken to balance out the rigid religious practices in society,’ said Ali Fakhro, a political analyst and commentator in Bahrain… But it remains doubtful that Nayef — if ever made king — would outright annul Abdullah’s reforms, which include the establishment of a coed university where both genders can mix. More likely, Nayef would put any further changes on hold, said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political affairs professor at Emirates University.” New York Times, October 22^nd. If Nayef survives to succession, always a question given the ages of the incumbent high-level princes, will he rise to the occasion and seek that middle ground, inching slowly into modernity, or will he gradually stop the progressive clock, perhaps even moving the hands of time backwards? Only time will tell, but in the volatile Middle East, all such changes are relevant.

I’m Peter Dekom, and what may seem like a small story from a distant land could have significant repercussions to the United States, both vis-à-vis defense against Muslim extremists and pricing of precious oil.