Conventionally Speaking

Forget about the nukes; North Korea would have to carry them into the United States or South Korea to detonate (don’t laugh; it is possible to do this!). They are three to five years away from having a rocket capable of delivering a nuclear payload to the continental United States. But if they were to launch a conventional strike against the South, they could inflict some very serious damage very quickly. By sheer force of volume, the North is a very powerful military by anyone’s standards.

 North Korea fields the fifth largest full-time army on earth: one million regulars. Oh, but there are also eight million reservists who can be mobilized at a moment’s notice. Throw in the secret police, young Red Guards and the other law enforcement officers, and the total numbers are staggering: “As of 2013, with 9,495,000 active, reserve, and paramilitary personnel, it is the largest military organization on earth.” Wikipedia. More total available troops than the United States, China or Russia. Trained by Russians/Soviets as well as the Chinese, Pyongyang’s troops are better fed and significantly in better shape than the rest of the population.

Not bad for a country of fewer than twenty-five million people. They are heavy with artillery, from guns to lots of short range missiles. Their tanks, guns, missiles and supporting equipment are mostly locally manufactured. Tons of their gun emplacements, most directed at the south (some at the beaches where enemies troops would have to land), have been dug in since the suspension of the Korean War in 1953. While they have two relatively small fleets, the North will rely much more heavily on its artillery, masses of humanity and subversive tactics with deadly effect.

The South bulked up after the Korean War as well, but to nowhere near the staffing levels of the North. “[T]he Republic of Korea Armed Forces is [also] one of the largest standing armed forces in the world with a reported personnel strength of 3,539,000 in 2012 (639,000 active force and 2,900,000 regular reserve), and additional 300,000 paramilitary.” But South Korea has the clear advantage in terms of modernity, with vastly more sophisticated weapon systems than the North, the best fighters available and over 28 thousand U.S. troops stationed there. The North’s growing pressure with nukes and missile technology is more than offset by the South’s ally, the United States.

Just to make sure they have an edge, however, the North has infiltrated the South with sleeper units waiting for orders to begin sabotage and to disrupt overall communications as well as the command and control systems of their enemy across the DMZ. Remember, Korea’s capital and largest city by far, Seoul, is a scant twenty-five miles from the tunnel-laced DMZ. And the North clearly has a focus on how to disable the sophisticated weapons it is sure to face.

“Although the North Korean military once enjoyed a startling advantage against its counterpart in South Korea, its relative isolation and economic plight starting from the 1980s has now tipped the balance of military power into the hands of the better-equipped South Korean military. In response to this predicament, North Korea relies on asymmetric warfare techniques and unconventional weaponry to achieve parity against high-tech enemy forces. North Korea has developed a wide range of technologies towards this end, such as stealth paint to conceal ground targets, midget submarines and human torpedoes, a vast array of chemical and biological weapons, and blinding laser weapons. The Korean People's Army operates ZM-87 anti-personnel lasers, which are banned under the United Nations Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons…

“Since the 1980s, North Korea has also been actively developing its own cyber warfare capabilities, and as of 2011 has some 1,000 skilled military hackers. The Korean People's Army has also made advances in electronic warfare by developing GPS jammers. Current models include vehicle-mounted jammers with a range of 50 kilometres (31 mi)-100 kilometres (62 mi). Jammers with a range of more than 100 km are being developed, along withelectromagnetic pulse bombs. The Korean People's Army has also made attempts to jam South Korean military satellites.” Wikipedia.

So even though we could reduce the North to a parking lot in minutes, the damage they could inflict before we could react is incalculable. It is unlikely that Kim Jong-un, as much as he may be trying to appease his military hardliners, will knowingly risk an attack that could easily end his power, perhaps take his own life and threaten his sumptuous lifestyle. But the brinksmanship of his father and grandfather, who knew how many Americans could die in a fire fight or how many boats could be seized or sunk and not cross the line of massive retaliation, may not reside in the mind of an inexperienced 29-year-old.

It is not his actual intentions we should fear; it is that Kim’s inexperience could inadvertently tip the scales irreversibly and draw us into a completely unnecessary conflict. He’s building up his chips for that big bargaining table he believes is inevitable… if some idiot doesn’t make a mistake that takes it all over the top. Does he really know how to play his hand? BBC on April 5, 2013: “North Korea has told foreign embassies in Pyongyang it cannot guarantee their safety in the event of conflict, and to consider evacuating their employees.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and knowing your enemy is step one.