Hot in Iceland

There is another underlying natural contributor to global warming that has the capability of accelerating shifts of global weather patterns. And strangely enough, the major culprit resides in and immediately threatens Europe. That little island nation that enjoyed one of the most destructive collapses of its banking system – Iceland – is a natural-disaster-generating land that could trigger globally-impactful climate change all by itself.

Almost one third of recorded lava flow over the past 500 years has been generated… not by the eruption of Kilauea on the Big Island in Hawaii… but by volcanoes in Iceland. Big, nasty, polluting, aircraft threatening, massive ash-plume-emitting, fatal-gas-producing, weather-pattern-disrupting volcanic explosions of terrifying force. Iceland is on the edge of the Mid-Atlantic tectonic plate with 30 currently active volcanoes as evidence. Thirteen of these have erupted since history (since 874AD) has recorded their devastation. And the worst part of this horrific system of hot violence is that a major eruption can happen at any time. In recent years, the eruptions that have happened have wreaked havoc with the regional environment.

Here’s the short history (per Wikipedia): “The most fatal volcanic eruption of Iceland's history was the so-called Skaftáreldar (fires of Skaftá) in 1783-84. The eruption was in the crater row Lakagígar (craters of Laki) southeast of Vatnajökull glacier. The craters are a part of a larger volcanic system with the subglacial Grímsvötn as a central volcano. Roughly a quarter of the Icelandic nation died because of the eruption. Most died not because of the lava flow or other direct effects of the eruption, but from indirect effects, including changes in climate and illnesses in livestock in the following years caused by the ash and poisonous gases from the eruption. The 1783 eruption in Lakagígar is thought to have erupted the largest quantity of lava from a single eruption in historic times.

“The eruption under Eyjafjallajökull (‘glacier of Eyjafjöll’) in 2010 [see above map for the plume] was notable because the volcanic ash plume disrupted air travel in northern Europe for several weeks; however this volcano is minor in Icelandic terms. In the past, eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have been followed by eruption of the larger volcano Katla, but after the 2010 eruption no signs of an imminent eruption of Katla were seen…  The eruption in May 2011 at Grímsvötn under the Vatnajökull glacier sent thousands of tonnes of ash into the sky in a few days, raising concerns of a repeat of the travel chaos seen across northern Europe.”

“Travel chaos” – grounding aircraft until the ash-plume dissipates (which can take days… or weeks) – should be the least of our concerns, even though the hotel bills of those unable to leave European sites are pesky and burdensome. The rage of death and destruction could be (and obviously has been) horrific in and around Iceland. Here’s how it works according to the United States Geological Survey: “The most significant climate impacts from volcanic injections into the stratosphere come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid, which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earth’s lower atmosphere or troposphere. Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit scale) for periods of one to three years.”

OK, it’s not just Iceland, but that nation’s proximity to the balance of densely-populated and technologically-dependent Europe has brought attention to the remaining potential devastation that could happen at any time. Here’s where the biggest “recent” eruptions have made the biggest difference according to the USGS: “The climactic eruption of Mount Pinatubo on June 15, 1991, was one of the largest eruptions of the twentieth century and injected a 20-million ton (metric scale) sulfur dioxide cloud into the stratosphere at an altitude of more than 20 miles. The Pinatubo cloud was the largest sulfur dioxide cloud ever observed in the stratosphere since the beginning of such observations by satellites in 1978. It caused what is believed to be the largest aerosol disturbance of the stratosphere in the twentieth century, though probably smaller than the disturbances from eruptions of Krakatau in 1883 and Tambora in 1815. Consequently, it was a standout in its climate impact and cooled the Earth's surface for three years following the eruption, by as much as 1.3 degrees at the height of the impact. Sulfur dioxide from the large 1783-1784 Laki fissure eruption in Iceland caused regional cooling of Europe and North America by similar amounts for similar periods of time.” Whew!

In 2010, air traffic in Europe was grounded for six days as Eyjafjallajökull erupted. It cost the airlines alone over $200 million a day. It’s been just a few days past the third anniversary of that eruption, but seismologists are seeing increasing activity from another Icelandic volcano, Katla, which has blown with historical consistency over the years. It’s just about time for another blast. The last explosion of this simmering danger, in 1918, pushed five times as much ash into the air than the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull blow. Is the world… even just Europe… prepared for the devastation? Aside from a few contingency plans to shut down air traffic (again), the answer is: not really.

I’m Peter Dekom, and just when you think nothing else big and nasty could happen….