Putin Baits the West

With another rubber stamp Russian election just days away (March 18^th), Vladimir Putin is taking on the West, catering to his broad constituency in the name of national security. Even as nascent criticism at home ripples slightly – some are beginning to look at the mounting Russian casualties in Syria with newfound concern – Putin is telling the world that Moscow’s new enhanced weapon systems both outmatch anything the West has and should serve as a cautionary tale against anyone (a threat very focused on the United States) thinking that they could outflank Russia militarily.

In the first half of his 14^th state of the nation address on March 1^st, Putin stressed the new invigorated Russian economy. Political leaders know that if the people are suffering without good reason, their hold on power will slip away. No worries for Vladdy these days. As the above chart from the BBC illustrates, Putin seems to have delivered enough in that arena.

But Vladdy yearns to return to the era when the USSR was one of the two global powers on earth, a force that was most certainly predicated on military might and sophistication. A clear superpower that no one could ignore as to any global issue. He’s lost territory from what was once the USSR, but he slowly squeezing himself back to over in many of those CIS states.  Watching China rise as American influence rapidly subsides is pushing him to make sure Russia does not fall behind either of these nations in sheer military strength.

American lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are aghast at Russia’s well-oiled and highly functional election meddling experts, capable of hacking into sensitive computers and using easily-obtained data to track individual American voter sensibility to mount a highly targeted and automated campaigns of effective disinformation and polarization aimed at destabilizing our political processes. As President Donald Trump fails to impose Congressionally-mandated responsive sanctions against Russia… refusing even to order his cyber intelligence chiefs to deploy our sophisticated cyber systems against Russia… Vladimir Putin wants to remind the rest of the world of what he also feels is now Russia’s superior and more modern military threat. The second half of his speech focused on military might.

“Standing in front of a giant video screen, President Putin showcased Russia's very latest strategic weapons. Like a magician pulling one rabbit after another out of his hat, he wowed his audience with images of cruise missiles, intercontinental ballistic missiles, underwater drones and supersonic jets… Russian MPs and senators applauded the military video show, which dominated the second half of President Putin's speech.

“There was a double message here. Firstly, to the West: Don't push us. And, with elections coming up, there was this for the Russian people: Vote for Putin and you'll be voting for national security…

“The weapons he boasted of included a cruise missile that he said could ‘reach anywhere in the world.’

“He said of the West: ‘They need to take account of a new reality and understand ... [this]... is not a bluff.’

“Giving his annual state of the nation speech, Mr Putin used video presentations to showcase the development of two new nuclear delivery systems that he said could evade detection.

“One included a ‘low-flying, difficult-to-spot cruise missile... with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path, which can bypass lines of interception and is invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence.’… Another weapon he discussed was a submarine-launched, long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.” BBC.com, March 1^st.  

Western military strategists are certainly aware of these developments, along with a submarine-launched nuclear torpedo (drone) that can be fired from a distance to take out entire port cities with virtually no warning and facing very limited means of detection. Putin’s policy choices almost always run counter to American goals. They ferry supplies in and out of North Korea. They supply weapons and direct military action to the Assad regime in Syria and openly court Iran. But Russia is not the only player with eyes on an even clearer super-power status.

As China’s President now no longer faces term limits. Putin comes face to face with probably the most powerful man on earth – Xi Jinping – a man who will probably remain in power for a very long time, paralleling Putin’s own longevity in office. Other than dreading Donald Trump’s rogue unpredictability on the Korean Peninsula, Putin otherwise sees Trump as an easily manipulated and self-centered pawn who is gratefully headed on a clear path further to isolate the United States; our global relevancy and influence are fading by the day. Our bully tactics and focus on bilateral trade agreements (vs multiparty agreements) have backfired.

But China is an entirely different matter, with both nations being Asian regional powers. So far, Russia has been content to allow China to ply its dominance throughout most of Southeast Asia. But Russia is hardly giving up its efforts at entrenching itself in Northern Asia and the Middle East. At some point these two border nations are going to come face-to-face in an ugly confrontation. The sad thing is how they are both turning their back on the United States… except for those constant little jabs. While China clearly has much more economic power, Russia now more than makes up for that with military strength. It is interesting to watch. In a bad way.

I’m Peter Dekom, and we are so focused on confusion and disarray in our political system, the ravages of yet another devastating school shooting, that most Americans are not even looking at the “other” giant global forces that will reshape our lives… one way or another… in significant ways.