If the Democrats Don’t Lose

There is a constituency, an immutable base, of Trump believers who will never abandon their champion. There is another, immutable base, of never-Trumpers, who never support a Republican. And then there are the rest, who will decide the next Congress and who will be the next President of the United States. 

The reality is that very few those in the middle actually like Donald Trump. Some conservatives feel betrayed by Trump’s abandonment of free trade as a core value, fighting trade wars in which both sides lose. They also wonder why the President cozies up to two of the most traditional enemies of the United States, Russia and North Korea, each of which continues to bait and oppose American interests and policies. Too many Americans died in the Korean War fighting precisely the same regime that remains in power today. His insulting tweet-mouth and proclivity to lie are deeply distressing to many truly religious voters.

And then there are traditionalist women voters, defecting in droves. Think of mothers trying to explain to their children why it’s okay for the President to lie, bully and insult… but that it something they should never do. He’s made a mockery of the Ten Commandments, and his day-to-day behavior has caused even some of the most truly conservative women to wince. His treatment of women is unabashedly abominable. 

And it is this demographic shift that seems to have stuck to too many Republicans, so worried about losing that populist, evangelically driven base, that they continue to alienate suburban women, who just might be the deciders in the next election.

“[Arizona resident and lifelong Republican Emily Romney] Sanchez [a distant relative of Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah] said she considers Trump ‘reprehensible as a human being’ and the Republican Party morally bankrupt. ‘I couldn’t be a part of it anymore,’ she said, and as a result, at age 40 the newly registered independent is weighing her first-ever Democratic vote for president.

“In an emailed statement, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, Sarah Matthews, said that ‘over the next year, our robust ‘Women for Trump’ coalition will continue working to mobilize supporters across the country and share the President’s record of success.’

“The erosion of support among suburban women began during the 2016 campaign — for many the breaking point was the ‘Access Hollywood’ video in which Trump boasted of grabbing women by their genitals — and increased dramatically in the 2018 midterm election, costing Republicans control of the House.

“The trend continued in the recent off-year elections, in suburbs from Wichita, Kan., to northern New Jersey to DeSoto County, Miss. Democrats won two of three gubernatorial contests, in Kentucky and Louisiana, in good part because of their strength in those Republican redoubts.

“The sentiment extended down ballot as well. Outside Philadelphia, Democrats took control in Delaware County for the first time since the Civil War. In suburban Virginia, just outside Washington, D.C., the party won every state House seat in Fairfax County, a shift nearly on a par with the 2018 Democratic sweep of congressional seats in Orange County, Calif.

“‘It’s amazing the change, in just the last few years,’ said Q. Whitfield Ayres, a pollster who has spent decades strategizing for Republican campaigns and causes. ‘It’s not any one place. It’s everywhere.’

“That includes Arizona, where in 2018 Kyrsten Sinema, a congresswoman from the Phoenix suburbs, became the first Democrat in 30 years to win a U.S. Senate seat there. She ran as a centrist focused on bipartisan problem-solving, a direct appeal to pragmatic suburban voters, and her success is seen as a model for turning the state from red to blue in 2020 — or at least making Arizona competitive in a way it has not been in decades…

“‘Sometimes I want to print out every single one of his Tweets and tape them to people’s doors,’ said Christie Black, a 35-year-old stay-at-home mom who abandoned the GOP and voted independent in 2016 rather than support Trump. ‘I want them to see in writing that these are the things he’s saying. Those are worth tax cuts to you?’… ‘Yeah,’ her brunch companion, Kaija Flake Thompson [Thompson’s brother, former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, is a prominent Trump critic], chimed in sarcastically. ‘We have no moral compass, but, hey, we have conservative judges!’” Los Angeles Times, November 29^th.

But before the Democrats get giddy with excitement, they should remember that while Donald Trump might not win in 2020, the Democratic nominee might still lose. Swinging to the left has terrified voters who might otherwise defect to the Dems. Candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders still cannot generate traction with these potential anti-Trump voters. 

And remember, “Trump is not ceding the suburbs. While relying heavily on massive rural support to win reelection, the president and his political team hope to win back many disaffected women by leaning into the strong economy and promoting issues like paid family leave, school choice, female entrepreneurship and aggressive efforts to secure the border with Mexico.

“Perhaps most crucially, Trump and GOP strategists are counting on Democrats fielding a nominee whom women voters, whatever their feelings toward the president, will find even more off-putting… ‘If the Democratic nominee wants to get rid of ICE’ — Immigration and Customs Enforcement — ‘decriminalize the border, give free healthcare and eliminate the private option, and believes there’s more than two genders ... they’re not going to win here,’ said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican consultant in Phoenix, who is unaffiliated with Trump’s campaign.” LA Times. Perhaps his view is a bit farther to the right than Democrats really need to shift, but the message is clear. 

In the end, it might be women who make the ultimate decision… or the voters who are so alienated by both sides that they simply do not vote. Will turnout be the big decider? Or women? Maybe both.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and the questions remain as to whether the Dems will push themselves into self-destruction and whether women who are aghast at Trump will permanently defect from the GOP.