Vultures Circling

We’ve watched how Russia has swooped down into the Middle East, embracing Iran, Syria and now Turkey. The United States is gone for all practical purposes, with its failing Arab surrogate, Saudi Arabia, playing a slowly losing hand in vain support of a collapsing Yemeni incumbency. After a decade and a half of Netanyahu’s right-wing rule, Trump’s best buddy until the polls and an indictment sent the Israel PM tumbling, ally Israel has never been more isolated.

The US (NATO) wars of attrition in the Middle East, much fought under false pretenses (remember the WMDs in Iraq), pushed Iraq dramatically into Iran’s sphere of influence and is witnessing the return or Taliban control in Afghanistan. Responding to our renewed sanctions, Iran’s nuclear program is on again. Our vestigial military forces in the area are marginal. Turkey, purportedly a NATO ally, has opted for a Russian-built air defense system, prompting our Congress to consider sanctions against that nation.

Unfortunately for us, the Middle East/Central Asia remains a hotbed for anti-Western (read: mostly the US) Islamic terrorists. Recruited and trained locally, reeling from the failed promises of a better life under a Western model, terrorists often begin by replacing unresponsive and highly corrupt regimes vis-à-vis local constituents who have been abandoned by their governments… and ultimately elevates to a “crusade” against the Western powers whose tentacles have reached deep into local politics for decades, amplified by oil, oil and oil.

Europe’s proximity to the Middle East has borne the brunt of impoverished refugees, fleeing de-certified farms and military assaults, seeking safety and hope. That migration has, likewise, seen a backlash in Europe against these mostly Muslim immigrées.

The reconfiguration of regional Middle Eastern alliances, however, has been driven by US isolationism as much as any other factor. That extremist groups, from a significant remaining ISIS and al Qaeda presence, to numerous regional Islamists with global revenge in their hearts have solidified… seems to have escaped notice by the Trump regime, that same cabal that has turned a blind eye to the rise of domestic terrorism.

Notably absent from this arena has been China. If anything, the Peoples’ Republic has been consumed with its own Islamic difficulties with Uighurs in its westernmost province, incarcerating masses of Muslims in what are politely referred to as “reeducation” camps. But China had steered clear of a more direct presence in the Middle East itself… until Trump opened the door for China.

“As President Trump eyes the exit in the Middle East, his critics have excoriated him for abdicating a strong U.S. role in the region and clearing a path for Russia’s dominance. Yet in their scramble to find new allies, regional states have also turned to a quieter but no less powerful U.S. rival: China.

“Syrian President Bashar Assad signaled China’s rising influence in the region this week when he announced plans to join the Belt and Road initiative, President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy enterprise. But even before that, China had planted its flag in practically every country in the Mideast.

“It now stands as the region’s largest investor and expects to cement that status with Belt and Road, a sprawling, $1-trillion infrastructure project meant to revive the ancient trading routes of the Silk Road — including those linking China to Central Asia and the Middle East (or West Asia, as Beijing calls it).

“Within the framework of that initiative, China has signed trade agreements with countries from Oman to Morocco, harnessing Arab capital for development projects to build up railroads, ports and electricity infrastructure across the region.

“All this comes against the backdrop of a rising U.S.-China rivalry, exemplified by a yearlong trade war, saber-rattling in the western Pacific and a race for influence in Latin America and Africa . Flying largely under the radar, Beijing has had great success in drawing Middle Eastern nations into its orbit at a time when President Trump is seen region-wide as a mercurial ally, if one at all.

“‘The United States has become consistently inconsistent.... Regional players, including friends of the United States, increasingly view Washington as an unreliable partner,’ said Anubhav Gupta, associate director of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“‘They are forming stronger ties with other major powers because they sense both an uncertainty about U.S. commitment to the region as well as a lack of clarity as to what position the U.S. will take from one moment to the next.’

“By contrast, there has been little question of Beijing’s commitment… Chinese foreign direct investment has steadily increased over the last 10 years, with Beijing emerging as a major player in energy purchases, with the region meeting more than 40% of the Asian giant’s energy needs.

“‘Just buying oil, shifting the supplies of oil, would have huge impact on the economy of the gulf and the region,’ said Andrea Ghiselli, coordinator of ChinaMed, an Italian-Chinese research project focusing on China’s role in the Mediterranean region.

“China has also had success presenting itself as a pragmatic partner, one whose foreign policy is characterized by a self-avowed commitment to national sovereignty and non-interference in other countries’ domestic affairs. The attitude squares well with authoritarian governments in the region, which can do business with China without Beijing criticizing their human rights records or undemocratic systems.” Los Angeles Times, December 18^th.

 I wonder if whoever succeeds Donald Trump, particularly if it is a Democrat, might adopt a blue “Make America Great Again” hat as the American rallying cry of the future.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and decades-worth of American influence building has been eroded in the few short years of the Trump presidency… but it will take decades of reconstruction to restore our stature in the world… if that is even possible given the rise of China and the growing enmity of even our traditional allies.