Dam, But it Might be the Only Way

Water just might be the second biggest, but related, issue for the balance of this century. After climate change. Water conflicts within even California – the reconfiguration of the environmentally sensitive San Joaquim Delta against the water requirements of Southern California for example – threaten to escalate and redefine state politics, even more than partisan divides. Melting polar ice caps pour excess fresh water into the oceans. The resulting salinization makes that water generally unsuitable for agriculture or drinking. Desalinization consumes lots of electricity and dumps lots of toxic salt into the adjoining seabed. Not efficient or completely environmentally safe yet. Water is life. Access to water is changing. Flooding some places… drought and fires in others. Water wars just might be the future of global conflict.

The politics of water has been the subject matter of movies – Chinatown – and books – like Mark Reisner’s prescient Cadillac Desert – but the real life implications of drought range from the disaster of the Depression era Dust Bowl here in the United States to, believe it or not, the raging ISIS debacle in Syria and Iraq. Both Shiite-led nations faced interminable drought among farmers in predominantly Sunni agricultural regions. These farmers’ pleas to their respective anti-Sunni government leaders for dire assistance fell on deaf ears. Farmers were forced to abandon their farms and livelihoods. Rebellion rippled. Regional Sunni jihadist militants, particularly ISIS, heard the cry. You know the rest.

As part of America’s failed policies in Iraq, where our war based on a fabricated stash of weapons of mass destruction displaced Sunni control of a predominantly Shiite nation  (20% Sunni under Saddam Hussein against a 60% Shiite population), Iraq’s newly US-installed pro-Shiite “elected” government (the simple majority) almost immediately gravitated into Iran’s sphere of influence. Iran is almost 95% Shiite, so our losing a nation we fought and died for (Iraq) to our rather clear anti-American Iranian theocratic enemy was among the worst strategic errors in recent US history. For most regional scholars, the shift from a pro-US stance to clear encampment with Iran was the new Iraq we would just have to learn to live… without. Mass migrations. Ultra-violence. Political realignment. All because of water shortages.

The Middle East and neighboring Central Asia are likely to experience the greatest levels of average temperature rise. Water is even more critical, long-term, than oil! And as bad as the border region between Iraq and Syria might be when it comes to drought, make no mistake that other nations in the region face equally harsh futures, some to the extent that they make actually become thoroughly uninhabitable within the lifetimes of people already born.

On the other side of Iran, in the war-torn nation where the United States also intervened and installed its currently failing form of government, is Afghanistan. Drought is slowly pulling arable land into intractable desert. The situation is intolerable. Afghanistan is strongly Sunni; the Taliban, for example, are Sunni fundamentalists on steroids. They truly hate Iran and its apostate (to them) Shiite interpretation of the Qur’an. Sunnis are literalists, where the faithful are expected to read the Holy Book (or, if illiterate, have it read verbatim to them) and connect directly with God. Shiites are more mystical, believing that only the holiest of clerics are capable of reading the Qur’an and interpreting its meaning for the masses.

The above Wikipedia map shows a little red area, Nimruz Province in Afghanistan, just north of the border with Iran. This is a very dangerous and volatile place, particularly since the Helmand River flows out of Afghanistan and provides critical water to Iran. So far, Afghanistan and Iran have worked out a reasonable modus vivendi. But that may change. As Afghanistan has dried out, it is now building a dam to retain more of that vital water for Afghani farmers.

“Men across this windblown, lawless desert have fought over opium, God and gasoline, but now, Said Mohammed, a wheat farmer with a shovel and a rifle, senses a war brewing over water… The conflict runs along the dangerous border between Afghanistan and Iran… The nearly complete Kamal Khan dam would provide Afghan farmers with steady irrigation in dry seasons. But Iran, claiming the dam may significantly reduce its downriver water supply, is seeking to undermine the project.

“‘There just isn’t enough all year around,’ said Mohammed, digging in his soil. ‘This year, we were told that the new dam would be finished, and it would regulate our water supply through irrigation canals. But our neighbor [Iran] is stronger and might prevent it. They are already stealing our water. We’re fighting a water war, and we have little hope.’

“Mohammad can see Iran from his fields. He lives just outside Zaranj, the capital of Nimruz province, a city of mud buildings and hard men; a terrain of spies and opportunists… Afghanistan’s lifeline is the Helmand River, constituting more than 40% of the country’s surface water. The river crosses into Iran here, and while the water dispute isn’t new, it’s intensifying as Afghanistan moves to complete the Kamal Khan dam this year. It is expected to irrigate 432,000 acres of Nimruz’s farmland and generate eight megawatts of electricity for the province. Power is now imported from Iran.

“Iran says the dam will further contribute to the drying up of the Hamoun wetlands, a once biodiverse area rich in fish into which the Helmand River flows. Much of it has become arid and desolate. Afghanistan has built two other dams along the Helmand River. Iran has constructed more than 30 dams on rivers flowing into Afghanistan.

“Water has been a source of conflict between the two countries for decades, but droughts and climate change are aggravating a dangerous atmosphere that could further menace the U.S.-backed government. The land echoes with recrimination and suspicion. Afghan officials have accused Iran of bribery in a bid to delay the dam’s completion. In 2011, a Taliban commander reportedly claimed that Iran offered him $50,000 to blow up the dam…

“Over the last year, water authorities from both countries have been trying to resolve the dispute… But tensions and new narratives frighten farmers such as Mohammed. His land feeds his seven children and he worries about bribes, sabotage and bloodshed over the dam. ‘We were told we’d have our dam this year, but I don’t believe it,’ he said. ‘If we had a regular water supply, we could farm more — we could even export food to Iran. But for now, that’s just a dream.’” Los Angeles Times, February 6^th. Dreams can become nightmares.

Is this a microcosm of expected violent struggles for water? Is this the explosive part of our future that seldom makes its way into the headlines of expected climate change disasters? Given the millions of casualties linked to the recent Middle East/Central Asian conflicts – all driven by unforgiving drought – can there be any doubt? It certainly isn’t going to get better given the harsh statistics of cumulative damage from rising global temperatures.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and there does not seem be the slightest reasonable justification for our continued blind eye toward the accelerating devastation of global climate change.