Facts, Lies and COVID-19

There have been so many versions of coronavirus – outbreaks that include the SARS epidemic – that the World Health Organization wants us to know that the latest incarnation has a new and permanent name: COVID-19. Dramatically mishandled by Chinese authorities from its genesis in a meat and produce market (where live animals are sold) in Wuhan (Hubei Province in central China), this latest version has lots of bad news and a little OK news. Censorship and outright lies from government officials made a bad situation much worse. Images of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who finally appeared in public wearing a blue surgical mask, unwilling to shake hands with anyone, did not instill confidence. Clearly, both internally and externally, Xi’s and China’s government’s credibility is slipping fast.

As stock markets gyrate from the uncertainty as death tolls and infection counts explode, particularly in Wuhan, as ships with contagious passengers become floating quarantine stations, and transit between nations restricted, folks quarantined in other designated facilities and as masks in some areas become mandatory (good luck finding a place to buy them now), the little trickle of good news is certainly welcome. The disease appears to show little or no current signs of mutating. That’s good for both treatment and, in time, prevention. And while the death toll mounts, especially among the most vulnerable, for most infected persons the disease is quite survivable.

In the meantime, the reconfigured numbers, particularly from China, do not look good. “Health officials in Hubei reported 14,840 new cases, most of them in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province where the virus is believed to have originated… The province also said another 242 people had died from the coronavirus Wednesday [2/12], taking the total number of deaths in mainland China to 1,367. It stood at 1,113 on Wednesday [2/12].

“Across mainland China, there were 15,152 new confirmed infections on Wednesday [2/12], bringing the total number of cases to 59,805, a significant jump that's sure to raise concerns about the true scale of the epidemic in China… The total number as of Wednesday [2/12] was 44,653.” NBCNews.com, February 13^th. Chinese New Year was extended. Entire factories, even industries, were shut down. Conventions, sporting events, festivals and celebrations were postponed or cancelled. Many workers were told to stay home, some recalled, some sent back home again. By February 14^th, the reported number of infected in the PRC rose to a confirmed 66 thousand.

Hordes of buyers worldwide were clamoring for surgical masks, which are in short supply. Even though there is little evidence that wearing such a mask has any real impact on preventing the wearer from getting COVID-19. In parts of China (and elsewhere), not wearing such a mask could get you in jail posthaste.

Biases and prejudices exploded the world over. People in unaffected areas far from China who were or looked ethnically Chinese were shunned. One ship with diagnosed passengers on board was denied docking privileges in five separate ports. The Chinese, and hence the global, economy is getting slammed by the shutdowns, exclusions and failure to end the epidemic as quickly as hoped. The stupidity of the spreading fear is underscored as sales of Corona beer plummeted.

The higher numbers are less a product of accelerating infection than an improvement in diagnostic techniques, primarily in the Peoples’ Republic. “The spike came after officials in Hubei province, hardest hit by the outbreak, started using new technology to diagnose coronavirus cases.

“Hubei had previously only allowed infections to be confirmed by RNA tests, which can take days to process. RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries genetic information allowing for the identification of organisms like viruses… But it has now begun counting cases that have been clinically diagnosed.

“While the Hubei health commission didn't spell out the new diagnosis method used, Reuters reported, citing the country's National Health Commission, that computerized tomography (CT) scans, which can reveal lung infections, are being used to confirm infection… As a result, another new 14,840 cases were reported in Hubei on Thursday [2/13], up from 2,015 new cases reported across mainland China a day earlier.

“The new diagnosis method will help patients get treatment as early as possible and improve the success rate of their treatment, the Hubei health commission said… However, the new testing methodology is only being used in Hubei province, Chinese officials said.” NBCNews.com.

And while there is no solid evidence that the epidemic is nearing a clear end, “Ahead of the newly reported rise in cases in Hubei, the World Health Organization (WHO) said Wednesday [2/12] the number of cases of infection in China had stabilized, but it was too early to say the epidemic was slowing… ‘This outbreak could still go in any direction,’ WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a briefing in Geneva Wednesday [2/12].” NBCNews.com. This too shall pass, with death and devastation perhaps forgotten, perhaps seared into our collective memory.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and I wonder exactly what lessons we learn from these increasingly frequent epidemics and what exactly will change going forward… if anything.