St. Bernard – The Other Fracture in America

According to Forbes (6/24/18), US college tuition is rising almost 8 times faster than the rise in wages. For decades, each college-aged generation is proportionately worse off than the preceding generation in terms of college costs. The average college student leaves a four-year institution today with about $40 thousand in student loans, and if he or she continues to professional school (medical, law or business school), the debt rapidly rises to six figures. The aggregate student debt in this country outstrips the total of consumer debt by an increasing margin.

According to CNBC.com (December 13^th, and the author of the above chart), over the past decade, college tuition “costs increased by roughly 25.3% at private colleges and about 29.8% at public colleges.” Public funding for higher education, calculated on a per capita basis, has fallen in all but nine states during that same period.

Add to this reality the rising cost of housing in areas where higher-level jobs are available, and you often find entry-level recent college grads stacked like sardines in shared apartments or even living with their parents. Strangely, in the past year, the unemployment rate for recent college grads, particularly those with non-commercial undergraduate degrees, is actually higher than that of the rest of the workforce. The above scenario is the perception that most recent college grads face, so if that political adage – “it’s the economy, stupid!” – is applied to this demographic segment, take a wild guess at what grabs the focus of these recent grads.

Add to this volatile mix the stark reality of the political platform of the older generation in power denying or ignoring the most obvious and accelerating impact of terrifying climate change, escalating gun violence with millions of semiautomatic weapons in civilian hands, the worst income inequality in this nation’s history (and in the developed world), the death of upward social mobility and the rising of autocratic demands by self-declared white supremacists… and well, you are likely to see a younger generational belief that this country is in dire need of a ground-up do-over. Even Trump-supporting populists, who believe the President’s words but ignore his policies and their obvious results, think this country is going the wrong way. But the two factions clearly see different solutions, a perception gap that is both widening and increasingly polarizing.

For older generations, who lived through the “red scare,” the Cold War and the anti-communist conflicts in which the United States fought and often lost (or stalemated), epitomized by the Vietnam War, the deeply negative notions of communism and socialism are so deeply entwined that a mention of either sends severe chills down their backs. They conflate “socialism” (the government ownership of most everything) with support for “social programs” (like Social Security, Medicare and public education). Communism, so much worse, is a system of leveling classes, often through violent repression by an autocratic elite, where the purported proletariat imposes their vision of socialism on society. These words really scare these old folks.

Some say the “socialist model,” which they think is reflected in Denmark, is the way to go. But in fact, Denmark clearly supports capitalism and commercial success amidst safety nets and social programs; it is labeled as “socialist” when it clearly is not. But with strong social programs, it is one of the most content societies on earth.

Nevertheless, for younger American generations, even for those who have no negative valances regarding pure “socialism,” they do not have those visceral negative feelings about greater government support systems… but they see an irresponsible capitalist system that saddles them with massive debt, generates a deficit that makes ordinary social programs much more difficult to finance, while massive tax cuts and deregulation create huge new wealth at the top and a general decline or stagnation for most everyone else. They watch as corruption for the powerful is legitimized – from Citizens United giving the rich increasing political influence to a US Senate unwilling to have a trial for a President who clearly crossed a self-serving line – and are repulsed by what they see. They see rising racism, gender discrimination, and ethnic cruelty.

Enter the populist demagogue from the left, the elderly “independent” Senator from Vermont, Democratic candidate for the Presidency… Bernie Sanders. The schism is no longer urban vs rural values, business vs society… it is now an angry younger generation hell-bent on shoving the old biased system out the door… one way or the other. Bernie brazenly taunts the incumbent and older generations by calling himself a “democratic socialist,” using a description he knows will inflame so many traditional older mainstream voters. Old Bernie represents the young kids.

But “social democrats,” as evidenced by political parties in Europe, do not completely reject for-profit capitalism; they rein it in and push society to offer a society-leveling program of social benefits for all. Donald Trump, with hints of Russian support, seems to be salivating at taking on a man who uses that “s” word – socialist – in a nation with so much lingering hatred and suspicion of that term, confused and misunderstood… or not.

“Sanders may come across as angry. But young voters consider the problems at hand and figure, why shouldn’t he be?... ‘You have people that actually criticize him for being so passionate and yelling at you,’ said Norma Sandoval, a UCLA graduate student in molecular biology. ‘But you see that he truly does want what’s best for the majority of the people.’

“Ideological affinity, coupled with a head start on youth organizing from his 2016 campaign, has made the Vermont senator a formidable favorite among millennial and Generation Z voters. Sanders won approximately half of voters under 30 in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, or CIRCLE, a research organization at Tufts University, and two-thirds of younger voters in Nevada.

“‘If anyone is going to try and dig into his lead, they’re going to have to go through the youth vote,’ said Ben Wessel, executive director of NextGen America, an advocacy group focused on youth turnout. Sanders, for his part, has made young people central to his path to victory, arguing that only a candidate that inspires turnout from new and infrequent voters can win the White House. But there has not been an overwhelming surge in turnout in the first three nominating contests.

“‘We’re not seeing some crazy overwhelming storming of the polls by Bernie-stans,’ Wessel said, using the internet parlance of fandom. But, he noted, the candidates who have performed best with young voters — Sanders, followed by Pete Buttigieg — are the ones leading the delegate chase. ‘It’s young vs. old right now in this primary ... and right now the youngs are winning.’

“Many young voters jumped into politics first rallying around an issue — be it Dreamers fighting for immigration reforms or youth-led strikes demanding action on climate change — rather than a specific politician. Philip Agnew founded an organization for criminal justice reform after the shooting death of Florida teenager Trayvon Martin. Recently, he has been on the road for the Sanders campaign, holding events at college campuses in at least eight states.

“‘It is the platform; it is the policies. Those outlast any person, and those are generational ideas,’ said Agnew, 34. ‘To hear them repeated back to them by somebody wanting to be president of the United States is a huge boost of affirmation for [young people].’… For many Democrats desperate to beat President Trump , their paramount concern has been who has the best general election prospects — a calculus that has been difficult to pin down in a volatile political landscape.” Melissa Gomez and Melanie Mason writing for the February 27^th Los Angeles Times.

Like or not, if the United States somehow holds together – which is very much in doubt – the Sanders vision is inevitable. But equally, even if somehow Sanders defies the odds and wins the presidency, congressional and judicial resistance are likely to frustrate his goals. He just might be a little too early in his vision for America.

If the United States does not survive intact, fractures into two or more smaller nations, the surviving blue states are probably better configured for economic success in a world where creeping automation and artificial intelligence are redefining the value of human labor. The surviving red states, still trying to recapture past glory and power, would likely face precipitous economic decline, probably bearing the brunt of climate change disasters. But is it abundantly clear that the world that Trump is promising is completely unattainable and unsustainable. Living with change is a bitch… but living with the assumption that change can be reversed is terminally stupid.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and the issue is not how to reverse or stop change but how to adapt and prosper with those changes.