Humanity vs COVID-19

If COVID-19 had emotions, if it could express gratitude, it would be joyfully effusive in thanking human beings who have made re-opening businesses more important than saving lives, turned wearing a mask from a medical preventative into a political statement and have engaged in trivializing and/or denying the seriousness of the outbreak. With nothing more than some treatments that might shorten a recovery (for those who are strong enough to recover) or lessen some symptoms, humanity is facing a killer pandemic with little more that hope that someone will find a solution to this disease. Right now, we are totally relying on building up herd immunity. And if you are willing to take a good hard look at how long that would really take and how many people need to be infected, please take a look at my June 13^th Are We Just Going to Learn to Live with Massive Death Tolls? blog.

Ah, you say, there are now at least 130 separate efforts to find a vaccine to stop this virus dead in its tracks. First, we really aren’t very good in fast-tracking vaccines of any kind, but our history on viruses is particularly bad. If the first vaccine that survives the expedited (and perhaps not so exhaustive) safety tests is somehow widely deployed, why do we assume that this is the best choice? What if there are long-term side effects? What if the immunity is only short-term? Maybe the virus will be nice and mutate into a weaker version, as some scientists hope. It  has mutated dozens and dozens of times already, but it does not seem to be fading at all.

And why should it? Particularly in the United States, where hordes of people no long practice safe distancing and wearing a mask is a sign the you do not support President Trump. That red states – especially Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Mississippi and Georgia – are reaching new daily volume records of new outbreaks tells you that reopening too fast only makes things much, much worse. Not one single state that embraced a policy of reopening businesses met the CDC guidelines to justify that choice. But no one, and I mean no one, is talking about re-imposing the necessary lockdown scenarios that we imposed in March. We’re just backtracking a little and slowing down a bit.

“Viruses are not as smart as humans, but they are much more patient, said Harvard University epidemiologist William Hanage. And this virus’ track record does not bode well for a strategy of ignoring it in hopes it will burn itself out, he added… ‘That would be waiting for the virus to help us,’ Hanage said. ‘That’s not a good idea.’” Los Angeles Times, June 24^th.

I see emails and editorials from folks telling me that wearing a mask and safe distancing is a matter of personal choice. Freedom in a democracy… and they have rights to free movement without precautions and to engage in commercial activity without all these safety requirements. As so many addicted to Trump rallies illustrate, gathering in groups indoors without considering the impact they may have in spreading the virus to people they might come in contact with is considered Trump-correct behavior. Effectively, they want the right to infect others.

This notion of larges groups without protective measures consistently generates the worst infection and mortality rates. From nursing homes, prisons and church services to university students on Spring Break. “[University of Texas at Austin] College students who partied on the beach at Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, over spring break paid a price for their frivolity: Their fun in the sand led to 64 cases of COVID-19 back in Texas, U.S. health officials report…

“Little did the students know that as they tanned and knocked back shots of tequila in mid-March they were also transmitting the coronavirus… Subsequent contact tracing and testing turned up positive tests for 60 out of 183 travelers. In addition, a housemate and three of 35 community contacts also developed COVID-19… About one-fifth who tested positive showed no symptoms, no one needed hospitalization and none died, the report noted. The March 14-19 trip led to 231 people getting tested. Of that group, 28%, or a total of 64 people, had positive results.” US News & World Report, June 24^th. But they came back to share their infection with others, maybe older parents and grandparents. They kept the virus alive and growing.

We’re technically still in the first wave of viral infection. That we are heading for a second wave in the fall is becoming almost a foregone conclusion… with no vaccine in sight until well into 2021, if even then. What is an economy that is 71% consumer-driven worth… when consumers are getting seriously ill or are scared to go out? Who pays? Who cures? And what happens, as appears to be the case in big Florida and Texas cities, where we run out of hospital beds and ICU units? Trump wants to test less… so we might not even know where the danger spots are or whether we are able to contain the virus.

I heard one major league baseball player say that he won’t play this season no matter what. It’s not just that he is rich enough to sit this one out. He noted that even in those who have recovered, the lingering aftereffects often entail permanent impairment. “If my respiratory system takes my ability to compete even down by a mere 5%, that is the end of my professional career,” he said. And a 5% impairment would not be a terrible outcome.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and unless scientific reality and commonsense merge with a notion of personal responsibility to others, an awful lot of Americans are going to suffer, some to die, as a result.