Non-White Power

If the population of the United States were getting “whiter” and more traditional, you’d expect the Republican Party to be celebrating. But the opposite is happening. Maybe reality is why they have amped up their notion to employ every form of voter suppression they can – gerrymandering, moving polling stations far from minority neighborhoods, imposing voter ID requirements despite judicial resistance, culling voter rolls over technicalities but only in minority communities, and making sure minorities are also prevented from vote-by-mail alternatives – to make sure traditional white voters continue to have dominating control over the ballot box.

Simply, rural red states generate 1.8 times the voting power per voter over blue urban voters. Less than one third of all voters elect 70% of all US Senators. And for those wondering if Washington, DC, where voters cannot elect a US Senator or a voting member of the House of Representatives, will become the 51^st state… it will be over the dead body of the GOP. DC wants it. The Democrats know it would add two US Senators (exceptionally likely to be Democrats) to tip the scales toward the Democrats control both Houses. And the threshold for becoming a state is not particularly high.

Article IV of the US Constitution sets a pretty low bar: “New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new States shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.” There is no requirement that the President has to sign off, but all prior state admissions have had a presidential signature. So that seems inevitable. Watch the GOP bob and weave, litigate and try by hook or by crook to try and prevent that from happening.

But the handwriting is already on the wall:  According to the US Census Bureau, the number of non-Hispanic white Americans has contracted in the last decade, most significantly since the 2016 election. Down by half a million in just three years. Looking only at the youngest generations, those under 16, the majority of those rising voters are already non-Hispanic white people, a demographic that is significantly and traditionally more liberal than recent average voter rolls. We crossed that demographic line in 2019.

While the average numbers across all demographics have not crossed yet that line, the changes are still significant. Using Bureau of Census data, the Associated Press (June 26^th) breaks down the numbers: “In 2019, a little less than 40% of the U.S. population was either nonwhite or Hispanic. Non-Hispanic white people are expected to be a minority of the U.S. population in about 25 years.

“A natural decrease from the number of deaths exceeding births, plus a slowdown in immigration to the U.S., contributed to the population drop since 2010 for non-Hispanic white people, whose median age of 43.7 last year was by far the highest of any demographic group. If these numbers hold for the 2020 census being conducted right now, it will be the first time since the first decennial census in 1790 that there has been a national decline of white people, Frey said… ‘It’s aging. Of course, we didn’t have a lot of immigration — that has gone down,’ Frey said. ‘White fertility has gone down.’

“In fact, the decrease in births among the white population has led to a dip in the overall number of people under age 18 in the last decade, a drop exacerbated by the fact that the much larger millennial cohort has aged out of that group, replaced by a smaller Generation Z.

“Over the last decade, Asians had the biggest growth rate of any demographic group, increasing by almost 30%. Almost two-thirds of that growth was driven by international migration… The Hispanic population grew by 20% since 2010, with almost three-quarters of that growth coming from a natural increase that comes when more people are born than die… The Black population grew by almost 12% over the decade, and the white population increased by 4.3%.

“The number of seniors has swelled since 2010 as baby boomers aged into that demographic, with the number of people over 65 increasing by more than a third. Seniors in 2019 made up more than 16% of the U.S. population, compared with 13% in 2010… In four states — Maine, Florida, West Virginia and Vermont — seniors accounted for 20% of the population. That’s a benchmark the overall U.S. population is expected to reach by 2030. ‘The first baby boomers reached 65 years old in 2011,’ said Luke Rogers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch. ‘No other age group saw such a fast increase.’” And as that older, white-traditional-skewing demographic dies off… COVID-19 is highly toxic to older voters.

Assuming the United States even survives intact, it has become GOP mission one to make sure that the Republican hold on political decision-making be locked in favor of what is inevitably going to be an overall white minority. And nothing screams long-term power like appointing very young and very conservative federal judges… appointments for life! What the GOP loses at the ballot box, in the very near future, they hope to be able to dominate the federal judicial system for decades. As you watch the battles against racial and ethnic injustice unfold, keep this transition in mind.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and it is interesting, if not frightening, to watch as Republicans everywhere are forced to distort and manipulate the political system to force what is increasingly a minority will against the majority of voters.