It’s Complicated – the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

 

Wars, invasions, annexations, never-ending conflicts, genocide, civil wars and militaristic justification for violence have all stemmed from a nation mainly comprised of one ethnic group (call it “country A”), living at or near the border of another country (“country B”) that contains a rather clearly-defined pocket of an ethnic population that is indigenous to country A. Hitler used the pretext of protecting ethnic Germans to invade the Czech Sudetenland on the eve of WWII. Israel and Arab nations have fought numerous wars and engaged in perpetual conflict over who owns what in the Jewish state. Russia annexed Crimea, abrogating the treaty with Ukraine (where Crimea was located), and then began stirring up ethic violence in eastern Ukraine, both incursions based on a notion of protecting ethnic Russians. India and Pakistan seem unable to find a peaceful solution to the substantially Indian Muslim border state of Kashmir, where conflicts seem to erupt with extreme regularity. Another hotspot is now resurrecting an old conflict… again.

Armenia is a nation with a long and brutal history of invasion, subjugation and miserable occupation. The Ottoman Empire inflicted what is generally accepted as a WWI-era genocide that resulted in the deaths of somewhere around two million Armenians, even though Turkey (the successor nation to the Ottomans) continues to deny that such a massacre ever occurred. Armenia, once part of the Soviet Union, found a carve-out from the USSR as the above map illustrates. But you will notice that brown region – known as the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (or autonomous district) – which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan… but which is basically ethnically Armenian. The region, about the size of Delaware, is about 30 miles from the border with Armenia, a geopolitical boundary that was the result of a 1994 ceasefire agreement, but the violence has never stopped.

Turkey’s disdain for Armenia and Armenians has apparently not ended. “Armenian officials allege Turkey is involved in the conflict on the side of Azerbaijan and is sending fighters from Syria to the region. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said ‘a cease-fire can be established only if Turkey is removed from the South Caucasus.’… Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO] member, has denied sending arms or foreign fighters, while publicly siding with Azerbaijan.

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that Ankara will stand with ally Azerbaijan until it reaches ‘victory.’ He also maintained that it was the international community’s silence in the face of what he called past Armenian aggression that encouraged it to attack Azerbaijani territory.” Los Angeles Times, October 6th. The hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan began over three decades ago.

“The Nagorno-Karabakh War, also known as the Artsakh Liberation War in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, was an armed conflict that took place in the late 1980s to May 1994, in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in southwestern Azerbaijan, between the majority ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh backed by the Republic of Armenia, and the Republic of Azerbaijan. As the war progressed, Armenia and Azerbaijan, both former Soviet Republics, entangled themselves in a protracted, undeclared war in the mountainous heights of Karabakh as Azerbaijan attempted to curb the secessionist movement in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The enclave's parliament had voted in favor of uniting with Armenia. A referendum, boycotted by the Azerbaijani population of Nagorno-Karabakh, was held, whereby most of the voters voted in favor of independence. The demand to unify with Armenia, which began anew in 1988, began in a relatively peaceful manner. As the Soviet Union's dissolution neared, the tensions gradually grew into an increasingly violent conflict between ethnic Armenians and ethnic Azerbaijanis. Both sides made claims of ethnic cleansing and pogroms conducted by the other.

“Inter-ethnic clashes between the two broke out shortly after the parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in Azerbaijan voted to unify the region with Armenia on 20 February 1988. The circumstances of the dissolution of the Soviet Union facilitated an Armenian separatist movement in Soviet Azerbaijan. The declaration of secession from Azerbaijan was the final result of a territorial conflict regarding the land. As Azerbaijan declared its independence from the Soviet Union and removed the powers held by the enclave's government, the Armenian majority voted to secede from Azerbaijan. In the process they proclaimed the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Wikipedia.

In 1992, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe set up what is known as “the Minsk Group” (with the US, Russia and France as co-chairs) to resolve the conflict. The 1994 ceasefire was the result. However, the conflict between the two CIS countries never stopped. It blew up into a full-on war in 2008, resulting in an attempt by Armenia to annex the region. The UN passed a resolution demanding that Armenia withdraw. The conflicts constantly erupted, again in 2010, 2011-13, 2014, 2015, a four-day war in 2016, with sporadic conflicts right into the present day.

So as the world grapples with the pandemic, as even the President of the United States was hospitalized with the novel coronavirus, the cross-border violence over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan exploded… again. Only bigger! The Associated Press (October 3rd) outlines the latest development, with notions of other nations joining in or supporting the fray: “On Thursday [10/1], leaders of Russia, France and the United States — co-chairs of the so-called Minsk Group… issued a joint statement calling for ‘immediate cessation of hostilities’ and ‘resuming substantive negotiations ...’

“Armenia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Friday [10/2] that the country stands ‘ready to engage’ with the co-chairs of the Minsk Group ‘to reestablish a cease-fire regime based on the 1994-1995 agreements…. Armenia remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,’ the statement read. [But the] deadly clashes in the region resumed Friday [10/2], with Armenian military officials accusing Azerbaijan of carrying out strikes on Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert, and Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry accusing Armenian forces of shelling the Agdam region.

“The region’s officials said more than 150 servicemen on their side have been killed so far. Azerbaijan has not provided details on its military casualties, but said 19 civilians have been killed and 55 have been wounded… Several journalists were wounded in shelling of the town of Matruni on Thursday [10/1]. Two of them were French citizens working for the newspaper Le Monde… [An article in Le Monde] quotes regional human rights ombudsman Artak Beglaryan as saying four civilians were killed and 11 other people wounded in the shelling.

“Azerbaijan’s president said Armenia’s withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh was the sole condition to end the fighting. Armenian officials allege that Turkey is assisting Azerbaijani forces by sending fighters from Syria to the region and deploying F-16 fighter jets… Turkey has publicly supported Azerbaijan in the conflict and said it would provide assistance if requested, but denied sending in mercenaries or weapons.”

Days passed, and the violence only escalated. “Armenian military officials reported missile strikes in the disputed enclave’s capital, Stepanakert, which came under intense attacks all weekend. Residents told the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti that parts of the city were suffering shortages of electricity and gas after the strikes… The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, in turn, accused Armenian forces of shelling the towns of Tartar, Barda and Beylagan. Ganja, the country’s second-largest city, far outside the conflict zone, also was ‘under fire,’ officials said…

“The Foreign Ministry of Iran, which has nearly 470 miles of border with Azerbaijan and a short border with Armenia, said it is working on a peace plan… Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh did not elaborate but said Iran is talking to all related parties… ‘Iran has prepared a plan with a specific framework containing details after consultations with both sides of the dispute, Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as regional states and neighbors, and will pursue this plan,’ he said… Khatibzadeh also warned both sides against expanding the hostilities into Iranian territory… NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters that the military alliance is ‘deeply concerned by the escalation of hostilities,’ and urged Turkey to ‘use its considerable influence to calm tensions.’” Los Angeles Times, October 6th. Lots of cooks, some angry, some opportunistic… but there is a nasty broth brewing.

Even if a ceasefire is achieved, there is little doubt that this dispute is nowhere near a permanent and peaceful resolution. It is just one more hot spot, likely to erupt repeatedly in a world consumed with regional conflicts. Just what the world needs is one more major regional war!

That such a conflict could erupt to this unprecedented level during a pandemic tells you just how volatile the world really is. As we face a deeply confused political period in our own country, as the world looks at the United States with a mixture of bewilderment and horror at what was once the anchor for global democracy, we see how there is a global trend where politics, with violence, is increasingly being driven by ethnic divides. Today, the United States is mired in an election that seems to mirror this global “circle the wagons/them vs us” racial-ethnic-divide trend. Is this just another way for nature to cull the herd of an overpopulated planet?

            I’m Peter Dekom, and I hope that the “that can’t happen here” constituency right here in the United States will simply take another look… and see the obvious parallels… everywhere.