The biggest political question for the Republican Party, addressing its very survival, is what it looks like after the January inauguration… no matter who wins. To retain its populist mantle, which virtually precludes horse-trading and compromising with Democrats, it risks permanently disenfranchising its moderate wing of fiscal conservatives and social moderates.
That’s the backbone of the Lincoln Project, a scared group of unrepresented moderate Republicans who are truly terrified at the rhetoric of an unabashed racist president – despite his protests that he was the “least racist person in this room” at the last presidential debate (“methinks the lady doth protest too much”) – one who is cutting off desperately needed STEM-educated/skilled immigrants to the fill the void that US educated workers seem unable to fill and whose erratic trade policies and COVID denial are hobbling their business opportunities everywhere. We’re watching the horrific pandemic numbers rising now as the second wave rolls over us, which will slam the economy even harder.
But as the Republicans discovered in 1964 – see my recent You Fill Out My Census Not:
Distortion, Suppression - Widening the Gaps blog for specifics – a group of wealthy business/ professional class voters (moderate fiscally motivated Republicans) seeking lower taxes and reduced federal regulation simply cannot generate enough votes to elect… er… almost anybody. They need enough additional voters to carry a majority where it matters, people willing to vote against their own self-interest, for “other reasons,” social, cultural, racial and most of all religious. And right now, that additional constituency is very much in Trump’s pocket, win or lose. Without those populist and racial sentiments, that base (representing somewhere between 25% and 30% of all voters since at least the 1970s), a GOP candidate probably cannot win even a nomination to represent the Party in a national election.
Indeed, in this era of negative campaigning and vituperative, often wildly inaccurate fake social media exacerbated by the loosened purse strings from Citizens United, moderate Republicans have systematically been shoved out the door in primary elections by righter-than-right challengers (probably better described as immovable doctrinaire “populists”). With few exceptions, like Mormon Utah, moderate traditional Republicans just do not stand a chance anymore. But as the rising younger population is increasingly educated, as tolerance and climate change become core values, and as the United States skews more urban and more diverse, traditional populism is on the wrong side of American history.
Does this foretell a the formation of a new, fiscally conservative political party? But how will they garner enough votes to win fair representation? Do these moderates simply have to wait out this era of rising populism until its main supporters just die off or are sufficiently marginalized? That could take a long time. Perhaps, they simply have to swallow their pride and embrace the new GOP, hoping for a few policy scraps that might benefit them… or, gulp, accept the Democratic Party, believing that maybe they will have better luck there pursuing a more moderate path? Oddly, healthcare for all is less an issue for big business, because with a competitive federal alternative, their own employee healthcare costs could plummet. Are my fears justified? Is the persistency of populism truly inevitable?
Writing for the October 25th Los Angeles Times, Noah Bierman provides this reality-check: “Even if President Trump loses reelection, evidence is growing that his populist, personality-driven movement will continue to dominate the Republican Party, overpowering conservatives who are trying to sketch out alternatives… The clearest signs can be seen among the Trump acolytes making early moves to win the 2024 Republican nomination.
“South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who spoke in New Hampshire earlier this month, has been getting advice from Corey Lewandowski, a former Trump campaign manager… Michael R. Pompeo delivered a blistering attack against China, Trump’s favorite foreign punching bag, at a speech to the Wisconsin Legislature last month, one of the Secretary of State’s many eyebrow-raising turns toward domestic politics.
“And last week [mid-October] Nikki Haley, Trump’s former United Nations ambassador, endorsed a candidate for governor of Montana who is best known for body-slamming a reporter… ‘People are laying the groundwork to consolidate that Trump base,’ said Amanda Carpenter, a Republican Trump critic and former advisor to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, another would-be successor to the president. ‘Even with a big loss, he will still be the kingmaker of the Republican Party in many senses.’… The prospect seemed unthinkable in 2016, when Trump was an establishment pariah beating back attempts to prevent him from securing the nomination, and then later in the year staving off defections only days before the general election.
“Even more recently, several Republican senators in tight elections have tried to distance themselves from Trump as his electoral prospects have dimmed… But Trump remains the most popular figure in his party and even if he loses is unlikely to keep quiet in future primary races up and down the ballot, including in red states and districts where candidates have little incentive to moderate their positions… Candidates have seen that Trump’s grievance-based rhetoric, which spread in the tea party movement that preceded his entry into politics, holds sway over a large segment of Republican voters who feel marginalized or ignored amid the country’s social and economic changes.
“‘There’s money behind it now, and not only is there money, there is established media,’ said Lawrence Rosenthal, chair of the Berkeley Center for Right-Wing Studies and author of ‘Empire of Resentment: Populism’s Toxic Embrace of Nationalism… Something like Fox News can veer into the next pretty face,’ he added. ‘Breitbart is not going away.’
“Rosenthal argues that American conservatism is now linked to populist movements in Europe and elsewhere, filling in an ideology around Trump’s persona… The issues on which Trump has changed GOP orthodoxy — strict limits on immigration, hostility to trade deals, isolationist foreign policy, ignoring big budget deficits — have been largely popular with the Republican base. His style of grievance, white-identity politics and determination to destroy institutions has been accepted by leading Republicans and celebrated by his most loyal supporters.”
We have a president suggesting he will not leave office regardless of the election results. He seems to have encouraged well-armed, right-wing racist militias to “stand-by,” suggesting that he would encourage a populist civil war if that were what was needed to keep him in office. At the time of this writing, 224,000 Americans have died from the novel coronavirus, and still his base in unwavering.
Even if Trump is pushed out, how will populist-committed Congressional Republicans work with their Democratic counterparts? Or will they mirror the obstructionist gridlcok they imposed on Obama’s second term? And if the Dems dominate both houses of Congress, how will they deal with a constituency that will have mostly certainly become the disloyal opposition, ready to throw monkey wrenches into our governing machine? And if Trump wins, will the nation even be able to hold together? Can the GOP win without massive voter suppression? Probably not.
I’m Peter Dekom, and those 270 Electoral College votes needed to take the presidency are just the tip of the iceberg that is crashing into the superstructure that is supposed to hold the United States as a functioning democracy.
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