Keep a Policy that Never Worked or Return to One that Did

When the US-supported and deeply repressive regime of the Iranian Shah (the Pahlavi monarchy) collapsed into a theocracy in 1979, there was little doubt in the minds of the Ayatollah Khomeini and his followers that the bad guy was the United States. The Revolutionary Guard that had driven the Shah out also took over the US embassy, holding every American in it hostage for 444 days. A failed rescue attempt and unproductive diplomatic entreaties brought down President Jimmy Carter. The Iranian government released the US hostages early in the Ronald Reagan era that followed.

For the next 36 years, the level of animus between the United States and Iran only escalated. Name calling and flag burning were never-ending. Iran sent out its surrogates, mostly Hezbollah, to wreak havoc all over the Middle East. Iran rattled more than one set of sabers at Israel, which also confronted Iran at every turn. A repressive and brutal theocracy took over a relatively advanced and well-educated nation. Religious police and the notorious Revolutionary Guards reinforced a government where the reigning Ayatollah could pre-approve or reject candidates, reverse laws and even impose mandates on the Iranian people. The theocracy (under the Ayatollah) claimed they got their orders from Allah, which preempted mortal votes.

But what really got the attention of the Western world and Israel was Iran’s development of nuclear power with a clear path to a potential nuclear arsenal. “In the 2000s, the revelation of Iran's clandestine uranium enrichment program raised concerns that it might be intended for non-peaceful uses. The IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] launched an investigation in 2003 after an Iranian dissident group revealed undeclared nuclear activities carried out by Iran. In 2006, because of Iran's noncompliance with its NPT obligations, the United Nations Security Council demanded that Iran suspend its enrichment programs. In 2007, the United States National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) stated that Iran halted an alleged active nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. In November 2011, the IAEA reported credible evidence that Iran had been conducting experiments aimed at designing a nuclear bomb until 2003, and that research may have continued on a smaller scale after that time. On 1 May 2018 the IAEA reiterated its 2015 report, saying it had found no credible evidence of nuclear weapons activity in Iran after 2009.” Wikipedia 

The years that followed provided real conflicts, real shells, real air/missile strikes and real bullets. Sporadic but deadly. Israel, with US support, secretly deployed a Stuxnet virus to wreck Iranian enrichment centrifuges. Western power, and particularly the United States, employed crippling economic sanctions – aimed at denying Iran access to the global financial system while shutting down their ability to export oil – which made life in Iran just plain miserable. Nothing dissuaded Iran from continuing their nuclear program. The new Ayatollah Khamenei used this sanctions policy to evoke patriotism from even the most recalcitrant middle-class Iranians, even those who still had an emotional attachment to a secular and Western view of life. With an autocrat, backed by the powerful Revolutionary Guards, able to force his population to endure these hardships, the sanctions failed to force Iran to cave.

The Obama administration, recognizing that the continuing US policy assumption that Tehran would fall at any minute under its own repressive weight had proven false, began suggesting that a meaningful dialog, one that had never before taken place, might be a better tact. After all, the US had successfully resumed conversations with Germany, China and even North Korea after much worse conflicts. The result, the six party United Nations Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – also known as the Iran nuclear containment accord – was finalized in 2015. Israel screamed that the narrow focus of the accord made it toothless, but in fact (confirmed by the Pentagon) Iran’s nuclear program slowed, and any efforts towards making more weapons-grade nuclear materials stopped. Until 2018.

Kowtowing to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric (supported by the US evangelical base), Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the JCPOA in 2018. Trump reinstated the ineffective “same-old/same-old” bully tactics, and Iran pretty much pushed back. Iran’s nuclear enrichment program returned in facilities such as those pictured above. “Since [2018], Trump has imposed ever more punishing economic sanctions on Iran, but they haven’t caused Iran to bend to his will. Instead, the Tehran regime has retaliated by breaking the nuclear limits; Iran now holds 12 times as much low-enriched uranium as the agreement would have allowed.” Doyle McManus writing for the December 20th Los Angeles Times.

In fact, Iran is already pushing the envelope to generate weapons grade enriched uranium. “Iran’s decision to begin enriching to 20% a decade ago nearly brought an Israeli strike targeting its nuclear facilities, tensions that abated only with the 2015 atomic deal. A resumption of 20% enrichment could see that brinkmanship return… As of now, Iran is enriching uranium up to 4.5%, in violation of the accord’s limit of 3.67%. Experts say Iran now has enough low-enriched uranium stockpiled for at least two nuclear weapons, if it chooses to pursue them. Iran long has maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful.” Associated Press, January 3rd. Can a renewed treaty even get Iran back to that 3.67% level? Can we even expect a renewed treaty?

The diplomatic field has been further complicated by the January 2020 US drone execution of Iran’s military hero and top Iranian military commander, Qasem Soleimani, and assassination in Tehran (purportedly engineered by Israel with US support) of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in late November. But there are still noises that Joe Biden, Iran’s political leaders and the other original JCPOA signatories share a willingness to revisit that failed accord. Iran is also sabre rattling again while sending mixed messages. 

“[In mid-December], Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said his government was willing to return to the Obama-era nuclear limits if the U.S. lifts sanctions. If the new Biden administration ‘returns to the situation as it was in 2017, then so will we,’ he said… But that’s where the rub will come. Negotiating a step-by-step agreement about which nuclear limits will be reimposed first, which sanctions will be released when, and how Iran’s compliance will be verified will take some delicate diplomacy.

“And Biden may have trouble building consensus for a new deal. The 2015 agreement was opposed not only by most Republicans, but by several pro-Israel Democrats, including Senate Democratic leader Charles E. Schumer of New York… Even Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, a close Biden ally and advisor, has made clear he opposes lifting all of the sanctions Trump imposed, arguing that they give the United States leverage over Iran… That’s a widely held belief in Washington.” McManus. That keeping the hostility level on high has not worked – there has been no regime change in Iran – appears to be lost on too many on both sides of the aisle still convinced that what has failed over 40 years will finally work… this time.

What’s worse is that Trump may be purposely trying to sabotage Biden’s agenda. “In the [first week of January], President Donald Trump’s team has dispatched B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf in response to alleged Iranian attack planning and reversed an order to bring home the USS Nimitz, the only U.S. aircraft carrier in the region.

“On Monday [1/4], Iran not only announced it had resumed advanced uranium enrichment in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal but also seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker and its crew. This combustible combination coming just two weeks before the president-elect’s inauguration threatens to derail or at least delay Biden's hopes to return the U.S. to the nuclear accord that Trump withdrew from in 2018.” Associated Press, January 5th.

It may be that a little time must pass for the emotions and dug-in entrenchment that would make a new accord unlikely to fade. Biden has enough on his plate to deal with anyway. But we cannot forget that for every day that passes without a new containment accord, Iran gets to produce and stockpile increasing amounts of weapons-grade fissionable material.

I’m Peter Dekom, and you would think that pursuing a policy that has not worked in four decades just might convince American law and policymakers to try a different approach, one that actually began to show results.