We Have Trump’s Russia, Australia Has China

“China is not something your country can provoke.”

“White trash pig.”

“I will hire a killer through deep web and then kill your family.”

“Your mother will be raped till dead.”

For reasons discussed in numerous previous blogs, Donald Trump has a soft spot for Vladimir Putin and Russia. To Trump, the Russians did not interfere in our elections (2016, 2018 and 2020), they did not administer the recent massive hack of some of our government’s most sensitive agencies (China was the probable culprit tweeted the President) and generally act in a fitting and appropriate way in global politics. Even when every congressional committee and every governmental intelligence and diplomatic agency (cabinet level and below) says otherwise, even when many of Trump’s closest supporters believe, along with so many opposition leaders, that Russia is a rather consistent “bad actor.” Still, as Trump denies these Russian wrongdoings, we continue to participate in global sanctions against Moscow because of their illegal annexation of Crimea and efforts to destabilize eastern Ukraine.

We really do not need Russia in any serious economic way. Most of our desired communications with Moscow, other than holding them responsible for their seemingly endless wrongful incursions, have to do with arm’s limitations and stabilizing globally supported treaties. Russian natural gas and oil may be economic conveniences for Europe, but we have little in the way of sales to or exports from Russia. And while we continue to trade with China, recent American policies have certainly not made maintaining those trade structures an essential component of our “must have” economic structure. China needs us more than we need China.

Ah, but then Australia is in an entirely different boat vis-à-vis the People’s Republic of China. They are almost an economic hostage with a regime that is not remotely hesitant to use extreme pressure tactics to bring this significant Western democracy to heel. “In an era of dueling superpowers, Australia’s position is particularly vexed: closely allied to the U.S. but economically reliant on China, which buys more than a third of its exports, including vast quantities of iron ore and coal. In recent years China has also underwritten a boom at Australian universities, transforming international education into a $30-billion industry.

“Chinese students’ tuition fees account for one-fifth of the revenue of some top schools, according to a 2019 study by sociologist Salvatore Babones… At the University of Queensland, a leafy campus of sandstone buildings in Australia’s third-largest city [Brisbane], 1 in 7 students, and some $200 million a year in fees, come from China. Administrators touted the research benefits and basked in growing global prestige.” Shashank Bengali and Maria Petrakis writing for the December 26th Los Angeles Times. And in the race for global influence, China is rising even faster than the United States is falling. When forced to pick, the United States may soon be behind China in the eyes of much of the rest of the world.

Donald Trump’s failed leadership suggests to some Western scholars that he China now has an accelerated path to surpass the United States economy within the decade. “China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028, five years earlier than previously estimated due to the contrasting recoveries of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a think tank said… ‘For some time, an overarching theme of global economics has been the economic and soft power struggle between the United States and China,’ the Centre for Economics and Business Research said in an annual report published on Saturday [12/16].

“‘The COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding economic fallout have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favour.’… The CEBR said China's ‘skilful management of the pandemic,’ with its strict early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West meant China's relative economic performance had improved.

“China looked set for average economic growth of 5.7% a year from 2021-25 before slowing to 4.5% a year from 2026-30… While the United States was likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% a year between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6% after that.” Reuters, December 26th. Joe Biden certainly has his work cut out for him, and it is unlikely that he will be fully able to undo Trump’s damage to our ability to move and influence global politics vis-à-vis China. The evidence of how unbridled the PRC feels in applying pressure even deep within traditional democracies certainly comes to the fore in Australia.

A University of Queensland philosophy major, 20-year-old Drew Pavlou, helped stage a university-based protest against China’s repression of Uighur Muslims and its crackdown in Hong Kong. They shouted: “Hey-hey, ho-ho — Xi Jinping has got to go!” Counter protestors, most probably funded by the PRC itself, descended upon Pavlou and his group. “Things quickly turned violent. A man in the crowd rushed at Pavlou, snatching his megaphone. A second man shoved him. In the ensuing scuffles, one student from Hong Kong was tackled and grabbed by the throat; another had her shirt ripped open.

“The next day, Chinese state media named Pavlou as a leader of the protest. Xu Jie, Beijing’s consul general in Brisbane, praised the ‘spontaneous patriotic behavior’ of those who had attacked the student… It was an unusual statement for a diplomat, especially considering Xu’s other position: adjunct professor at the university’s School of Languages and Cultures. His dual roles were an example of the increasingly close ties between Australian universities and China, their biggest source of international students… The university didn’t chastise Xu for promoting violence. Instead, it defended its relationship with Beijing — and turned on one of its brightest students…

“On April 9, Pavlou opened his email to find a 186-page document from the university titled ‘Disciplinary Matters.’ It contained 11 allegations of misconduct ranging from the serious — harassing and bullying students and staff, damaging the school’s reputation — to the frivolous, such as using a pen at a campus store without paying… That night, facing possible expulsion, he drove to a parking lot and cried. 

“[In] 2017, during Pavlou’s freshman year, incidents involving Chinese students at several universities showed how Australian commitments to free speech and liberal democratic principles clashed with Beijing’s desire for total control and its disdain for dissent.

“One lecturer was forced to apologize for using teaching materials that listed Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory, as a country. Another was suspended after students objected to a test quoting a Chinese aphorism that government officials tell the truth only when ‘they are drunk or careless.’… Outrage over such cases appeared to be orchestrated or supported by Chinese diplomats. Campus groups known as Chinese Students and Scholars Assns. — overseen by the Communist Party and often funded by Chinese embassies and consulates — monitor Chinese students’ activities and mobilize them for nationalist causes, according to human rights groups.

“‘Universities keep saying they defend free speech and they believe in academic freedom, but in practice they’re not working to defend the institutions, students or staff from this very specific type of threat that emanates from authoritarian governments,’ said Elaine Pearson, Australia director at Human Rights Watch. ‘They’re so dependent on the income from fee-paying students that it’s impacting the way they respond.’

“During the 2019 unrest in Hong Kong, pro-Beijing groups at several Australian universities tore down so-called Lennon Walls of colorful sticky notes erected in solidarity with the pro-democracy protesters. Students from Hong Kong at Australian National University in Canberra, the capital, began covering their faces at rallies, worried they would be reported to the Chinese Embassy.” LA Times. Pavlou’s social media was flooded with messages such as those quoted above, and his family received death threats. But no one tried to rein in China’s malevolent efforts. Instead, Pavlou was suspended by the University for two years.

For those who have supported Donald Trump’s leadership, those who continue to reject Joe Biden as the legitimately elected president, they can expect to be limping through a Trump-exacerbated financial hell, slammed in the wallet, for years. As nations increasingly kowtow to Trump’s great foil,  his source of blame for all global issues, China, the People’s Republic is almost giddy with their ability to run roughshod over even the most committed Western democracies, at the expense of the United States. There a not-so-funny joke making the rounds overseas these days: “What borders on stupid?” The answer? “Canada and Mexico.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and while much of the Trump-era damage might not be fully reversible, without regaining the support from those once committed to Trump, we can expect a continued steady erosion in our global power and influence.