“To some, it might seem too soon to contemplate the next global outbreak, with the world still grappling with the devastation of COVID-19. But scientists say it’s highly likely that, without savvy intervention, another novel virus will jump from animal to human host and find the conditions to spread like wildfire… As this pandemic has shown, modern transport can disperse a pathogen to all corners of the globe in a matter of hours and can help it spread easily in densely populated cities.
“As for the next pandemic, it’s not a question of if but when, according to Dr. Gagandeep Kang, an infectious disease expert at Christian Medical College at Vellore in southern India… She pointed to previous research that found India was among the most likely places in the world for such a ‘spillover’ event to occur, due to population density and increasing human and livestock incursion into dense tropical forests teeming with wildlife.” Associated Press, December 19th.
While the exact level of tolerance for sustainable number of human inhabitants on earth is subject to a number of variables – from the rate of resource exploitation and food production to environmental policies – there are few academic metrics that say the earth is “comfortable” with the current global population – 7.8 billion as of November – and expected growth rates (projections show that we will cross 10 billion by 2083). This explosive Malthusian horror show seems to have stimulated nature to cull the herd. We’re the herd! Most estimates put “ideal” and “sustainable” at current consumption rates at half the current population. Or less.
According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, God’s tools to contain humanity are represented by “Four horsemen of the apocalypse… [In] Christianity, the four horsemen who, according to the book of Revelation (6:1–8), appear with the opening of the first four of the seven seals that bring forth the cataclysm of the apocalypse. The first horseman, a conqueror with a bow and crown, rides a white horse, which scholars sometimes interpret to symbolize Christ or the Antichrist; the second horseman is given a great sword and rides a red horse, symbolizing war and bloodshed; the third carries a balance scale, rides a black horse, and symbolizes famine; and the fourth horseman rides a pale horse and is identified as Death.” A simpler interpretation of this force labels the Horsemen as war, famine, pestilence and plague. Plague? Bubonic? SARS? Ebola? COVID-19? But what are the red flags for that spillover?
“A zoonosis (plural zoonoses, or zoonotic diseases) is an infectious disease caused by a pathogen (an infectious agent, such as a bacterium, virus, parasite or prion) that has jumped from a non-human animal (usually a vertebrate) to a human. Typically, the first infected human transmits the infectious agent to at least one other human, who, in turn, infects others.” Wikipedia. The Spanish Flu, misnamed because of press censorship in 1918, purportedly began in a pig farm in Kansas. Were the Chinese “wet markets” to blame for the current pandemic? Or, as many scientists believe, could bats be responsible for the initial zoonotic transmission of many of such plague-like diseases? One way or another, understanding zoonosis seems to center on bats, whether or not they are the originator of any particular infection. But bats are mammals with unique mobility: they can fly. They also have other unique markers that just may be essential for mankind to identify risk areas that might be contained before a viral pandemic explodes once again.
“Bats are thought to be the original or intermediary hosts for multiple viruses that have spawned recent epidemics, including COVID-19, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Nipah virus, Hendra virus and Marburg virus. A 2019 study found that of viruses originating from the five most common mammalian sources — primates, rodents, carnivores, ungulates and bats — those from bats are the most virulent in humans.
“Bats are a diverse group, with more than 1,400 species flitting across every continent except Antarctica. But what many have in common are adaptations that allow them to carry viruses that are deadly in humans and livestock while exhibiting minimal symptoms themselves — meaning they are able to travel and shed those viruses, instead of being quickly hobbled… ‘The secret is that bats have unusual immune systems, and that’s related to their ability to fly,’ said Raina Plowright, an epidemiologist who studies bats at Montana State University.
“To get off the ground and sustain flight requires an incredible amount of energy, with bats’ metabolic rate increasing 16-fold, Plowright said. ‘You’d expect them to get cell damage from all that metabolic exertion,’ she said… But that doesn’t happen. Instead, bats are remarkably resilient, with many species living more than 30 years — highly unusual for such small mammals… Plowright and other scientists believe evolutionary tweaks that help bats recover from the stress of flying also give them extra protection against pathogens.
“‘Bats seem to have evolved a collateral benefit of flight — resistance to deal with some of the nastiest viruses known to science,’ said Arinjay Banerjee , a virologist at McMaster University in Canada… Although scientists are still untangling the mystery, two leading theories are that bats may have evolved what Banerjee calls ‘an efficient DNA repair mechanism’ or that their bodies may tightly regulate inflammation triggers so they don’t overreact to viral infections.
“Probing the secrets of bat immune systems may help scientists understand more about when bats do shed viruses, as well as provide hints for possible future medical treatment strategies, he said… Bats and other animals that carry pathogens don’t pose a risk to humans — unless conditions are right for a spillover event… ‘The virus has to come out of the host for us to get infected,’ said Cara Brook , a disease ecologist at UC Berkeley… ‘The bad news: Increasing destruction and fragmentation of habitats worldwide — especially biodiverse areas like tropical forests — mean ‘we are seeing higher rates of contact between wildlife and humans,’ Brook said, ‘creating more opportunities for spillover.’…
“Scientists and governments would stand a better chance of containing future outbreaks if they had faster notice of when and where they begin, according to Ian Mackay , a virologist at Australia’s University of Queensland… ‘Ongoing, constant, nonstop surveillance’ — along the lines of the flu labs set up across the globe by the World Health Organization — could help researchers be better prepared, he said. He suggests that labs for virus discovery could regularly sample wastewater or materials from hospitals…
“Whether the goal is to curb the spread of known zoonotic diseases or to reduce the risk of new ones emerging as pandemics, the strategy is the same: reduce contact between humans and wild animals… ‘In the history of COVID-19, bats have been more victim than victim-izer,’ said Ricardo Moratelli , coordinator of the Fiocruz project in Brazil. ‘Bats host a large number of parasites, and they deal with these parasites well. The problem is when human beings enter into contact with them.’” Associated Press. But it is so much more than just bats.
That Donald Trump pulled us out of the World Health Organization – clearly an international body in need of upgrading and restructuring – as part of his anti-China tirade makes global prevention and coordination that much more difficult. I suspect that lapse of judgment will be repaired in the immediate future. Our lives just might depend on it.
I’m Peter Dekom, and its crystal clear that waiting for a deadly outbreak and then reacting to it is not effective; anti-science budget cutting needs to stop!
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