An Ugly Transition

 

An Ugly Transition

Let’s face it, there is clearly a downward pressure on investments in fossil fuel extraction. We all know that the future belongs to renewables, not burning fossil fuel. As such traditional fuel extraction efforts decline, as there is less of an impetus to build new fossil fuel plants knowing that their days are numbered, as energy demands increase – whether to fend off colder weather, amp up manufacturing or to return to more travel – anything… and I do mean anything… that disrupts the fossil fuel industry is magnified. Reflected in shortages and huge price instability. Weather catastrophes, supply chain disruptions, pandemic-related employment issues, and increased demand after months of a long slowdown. As Europe faces 500% increases in fossil fuel costs, impacting heating homes and powering all forms of transportation (from cars and trucks to aircraft), it has become painfully clear that alternative energy has not yet risen to replace that old world of fossil fuel reality. That is still years away.

According to OurWorldinData.org, here is the 2016 breakdown of the main global greenhouse-emitting sectors: energy (electricity, heat and transport) – 73.2%, agriculture, forestry and land use – 18.4%, the balance being spread among direct industrial processes and waste. Planete-energies.com tells us: “Global electricity generation is constantly increasing, as evidenced by the three-fold rise between 1973 and 2013 to 23,318 terawatt-hours (1012 watt-hours). Of this amount, 41% is produced from coal, 22% from gas, 16% from hydropower, 11% from nuclear power, 4% from oil and a mere 6% from renewables (biomass as well as geothermal , wind and solar power), which remain marginal despite making progress.” In the last few years, renewables power generation had reached almost 30% into early 2021, good news but…

Although these has been a significant shift away from the worst and almost uncorrectable coal-fired power generation since these numbers were released, the recent huge increase in natural gas and other non-coal sourced power costs, due to supply chain and production shortages, has pushed most countries, particularly in China and Europe, with remaining coal-power capacity to revert to that fuel source. This harsh reversal has resulted in the first significant and measurable increase in global greenhouse gas emission in years. Simply put, in terms of climate change, we are moving in the wrong direction. What are the viable short-term solutions?

We can no longer live in a world of “wait and see” pending the full deployment of alternative energy capacities. We are stuck with many of the old-world fossil fuel-based systems for at least the near term. As we began to take obviously dangerous nuclear facilities off-line (think Chernobyl and Fukushima) along with the complex issue of nuclear waste disposal, we will still had insufficient alternatives, even with renewables, to meet foreseeable power needs. Will various forms of in-transition molten salt reactors, which operate at much lower pressure than existing reactors, producing less waste, be normalized? They are very expensive, although they can operate for many years, but the fear factor associated with reactor-based power cannot be underestimated. Nevertheless, most people cannot afford the increased energy costs. Inflation is being ignited (pun intended) not from deficit spending but from the price increases we see, mostly in the energy sector… amplified by supply chain difficulties, agricultural price increases and housing costs. Time to get real.

Fact: it will take years for renewables – alternative energy – to get to the level where that replaces most fossil fuels. We will get there, but… Fact: there may be a minor effort to up fossil output out of necessity, but we cannot expect massive new investments in that resource extraction. As soon-to-be-obsolete drilling facilities and power plants wear out, updating and replacement is still a low priority. Fact: 73% of emissions can be traced to 5% of the plants, almost all from coal-fired power generation. Fact: The petroleum industry’s bad habit of burning off excess methane (23 times heavier than carbon dioxide) is easily contained with available technology.

We are witnessing economic disruption, which is leveling vast segments of the global population, as is clearly evidenced by an energy-desperate Europe. Rather than push American producers to up their fossil fuel extraction efforts, President Biden is instead asking oil and gas producers in the Middle East to increase supply. NIMBY? Even if that increase can be implemented, the dearth of tanker ships, crews and most of all truck drivers to deliver product (a huge problem in the UK as the above picture reflects) make the current price explosion and dire shortages problems that just will not go away anytime soon. We are witnessing price increases here at the pump and in house heating charges, but we are nowhere near the level of desperation faced in China and Europe. Instability is here for a while.

Here are some more possible solutions: Our efforts have to be focused on supplying more natural gas, which at the very least is far “cleaner” than coal. Given that there are so few mega-polluters (greenhouse gas miscreants) among the power plants around the world (around 1,400 such plants), it will not take much of an effort at least to close those down. Anywhere petroleum producers are burning off excess methane, it must be a priority to stop that process and divert the methane to a more productive use. And it has to be pedal to the metal to grow, build and expand alternative energy and the infrastructure needed to deliver that energy to consumers on an economically reasonable and sustainable basis.

I’m Peter Dekom, and while climate activists and progressives may rail against such efforts, we need a managed transition from “cleaner fossil fuels” to a global “all power from non-fossil fuel” reality… which will take time no matter what we may want.