Is the Cold War Getting Really, Really Hot?

Is the Cold War Getting Really, Really Hot?

Russia is our most obvious foe, opposing US interests wherever it can while also upping its campaign of election interference by spreading digital disinformation across vulnerable channels on the Web, mostly through targeted social media. But there is very little evidence that the Russia and the United State would turn that obvious animosity into a shooting war… or more. While Russia is not much of a trading partner for the United States (unlike Europe which relies on its abundant natural gas reserves), China remains our frenemy and massive trading partner. But China is also much more likely to involve the United States in an honest-to-goodness shooting war over Taiwan.

An ego-driven President Xi Jinping, now released from term limits, seeks to build a Mao-like legacy within Chinese history by fulfilling a longstanding belief that Taiwan is simply a rogue province that totally belongs to the People’s Republic of China. But the PRC actually covets what Taiwan can produce, particularly massive of sophisticated computer chips, which Beijing is unable to match. See my October 10th Is China Just Intimidating or Backing Into a War blog. With the PRC flashing its military might over Taiwan and in the South China Sea (as evidenced by their manmade island airbase in the Spratly chain), President Joe Biden has made it clear that the United States will stand by its treaty obligations to protect Taiwan from a PRC invasion. That threat seemed to have no impact on a growling PRC president.

“The U.S. does not contest China’s claim to Taiwan but is committed by law to the island’s defense… China said Friday that there is ‘no room’ for compromise or concessions over the issue of Taiwan, after a comment by President Biden that the U.S. is committed to defending the self-governing island if it is attacked.

“[PRC] Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin reasserted China’s long-standing claim that the island is its territory at a daily briefing after Biden made his comment Thursday [10/21] at a forum hosted by CNN… China has recently upped its threat to bring Taiwan under its control by force if necessary by flying warplanes near the island and rehearsing beach landings.

“‘When it comes to issues related to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and other core interests, there is no room for China to compromise or make concessions, and no one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and strong ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,’ Wang said [adding] ‘Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The Taiwan issue is purely an internal affair of China that allows no foreign intervention’… 

“Biden’s comments were viewed as stretching the ‘strategic ambiguity’ Washington has maintained over how it would respond to an assault on the island… The U.S. should ‘be cautious with its words and actions on the Taiwan issue, and not send any wrong signals to the separatist forces of Taiwan independence, so as not to seriously damage China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,’ Wang said.

“In his comments, Biden said the U.S. did not want a new Cold War but expressed concern about whether China was ‘going to engage in activities that will put them in a position where they may make a serious mistake… I just want to make China understand that we are not going to step back, we are not going to change any of our views,’ Biden said. Asked whether the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense if it were attacked, he replied: ‘Yes, we have a commitment to do that.’” Associated Press, October 23rd. But the Biden administration is extending the de facto cold war that already began with Donald Trump challenges to China’s aggression, IP theft and trade practices. 

We need to remember that in that part of the Asia-Pacific region, China’s naval and air power dwarf America’s military assets in the region. That lopsided military reality might force the United States to deploy tactical nuclear weapons (much more focused than strategic weapons) to counter that PRC advantage. And guess where that might lead. According to military experts, without a massive show of American force, the PRC could probably overrun Taiwan in a matter of days. 

What’s worse, China’s development of an upgraded weapon system just might tilt the playing field that much more towards the PRC: “A Chinese test of a hypersonic missile designed to evade American nuclear defenses was ‘very close’ to a ‘Sputnik moment’ for the United States, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday [10/27] in the first official confirmation of how Beijing’s demonstration of its weapon capabilities had taken American officials by surprise…

“But while General Milley did not elaborate, the surprise appears to have arisen from how China joined two different technologies — the launch of a missile that completed a partial orbit of the earth, and a hypersonic vehicle that could plow a suddenly shifting path, maneuvering in ways that would render all current American missile defenses obsolete.” New York Times, October 27th. With a few remaining bugs, the missiles are not completely ready for full deployment… yet.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the possibility of this kind of massive military engagement between the United States and China should give both nations pause… but it just might not.