Distrust in the Time of COVID-19

 

The United States has the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate in the industrialized world. We also have one of the absolutely lowest levels of trust in our government: 65% of all Americans do not trust that what they’re government is saying is truthful or what it is doing is in the best interest of the nation. That’s a pretty big reversal from the mid-1960s, when the number was reversed; 65% of Americans trusted their government back then. We hadn’t yet gone through the Vietnam War, Watergate, the fabrication of “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq or the weaponization of fake narratives that marked the Trump era and has produced continuing doubt with Biden as well. 

Despite the carnal disregard of consumers evidenced by too many mega-American companies, Americans also tend to believe and support the credibility of big companies far more than they trust their own government, local, state or federal. By contrast – as evidenced on European Union’s attack on American behemoths, Facebook/Meta and Google – Europeans trust their governments far more than they trust big business. 

It goes downhill from there for the United States as polarization as generated a parallel distrust of each other. Elites (including educated scientists) vs ordinary Americans. White supremacy vs Black Lives Matter. Blue vs red. The “Big Lie” vs massive voter fraud. Trump vs anyone (even within his own party) who challenges him, lines in the sand, militia with guns in the hand. 

We’ve been struggling with why some nations have functioned better with COVID than others, all factors considered. Denmark, for example, never had a vaccine mandate and is currently pretty much open for business without lockdowns or even mask requirements (see the above picture). Yet from the initial outbreak of this novel coronavirus, the Danes believed in science, desired to protect themselves and others from COVID, and voluntarily achieved an 82% vaccination rate (compared with the 64% in the US). They still occasionally wear masks in public, even though that is not required. Before the general availability of vaccines, Denmark embraced lockdowns, masks and social distancing without complaint. But once vaccines were generally available, they opted for inoculation in droves. There was/is no massive, science skepticism in Denmark. Their citizens do trust their government and respect each other. And they have had a fraction of the infection/mortality rates that have defined the United States. Why?

A study – Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021 published on February 1st in the prestigious UK medical journal Lancet – addressed that obvious query. Was success generated in developed nations with massive vaccine access? Like the US? Could it be strict enforcement of measures designed to contain the disease, from lockdowns to vaccine and mask mandates? The results, suggested in the above paragraphs, surprised the researchers. 

“Most cross-country variation in cumulative infection rates could not be explained. The factors that explained the most variation in COVID-19 IFR [infection-fatality ratio] over the same period were the age profile of the country (46·7% [18·4–67·6] of variation), GDP per capita (3·1% [0·3–8·6] of variation), and national mean BMI [body-mass-index] (1·1% [0·2–2·6] of variation). 44·4% (29·2–61·7) of cross-national variation in IFR could not be explained. Pandemic-preparedness indices, which aim to measure health security capacity, were not meaningfully associated with standardised infection rates or IFRs. Measures of trust in the government and interpersonal trust, as well as less government corruption, had larger, statistically significant associations with lower standardised infection rates. High levels of government and interpersonal trust, as well as less government corruption, were also associated with higher COVID-19 vaccine coverage among middle-income and high-income countries where vaccine availability was more widespread, and lower corruption was associated with greater reductions in mobility… 

“Efforts to improve pandemic preparedness and response for the next pandemic might benefit from greater investment in risk communication and community engagement strategies to boost the confidence that individuals have in public health guidance. Our results suggest that increasing health promotion for key modifiable risks is associated with a reduction of fatalities in such a scenario.” Emphasis added. In short, if we do not trust our government (and its scientists), each other and do not accurately communicate with each other and our government, we are particularly susceptible to whatever killing pandemic nature may next throw at us. Corruption – power-driven government lies at popular expense – only makes it worse.

We’re not even sure that the United States will hold together, much less build a new era of mutual and governmental trust. So, what’s the price we have to pay for this distrust? Fully incompatible partisan distrust. Push-me-pull-you populist governmental pandemic policies generating a pattern of cyclical and often regional surges and drops in infection/mortality rates. An economy that rises and falls with these surges, struggles with resulting supply chain disruption, with a market where inflation and instability reign supreme. Simply, millions of Americans have gotten very, very sick, hundreds of thousands have died, in significant part because of this distrust. And if we do not fix this… and there is another (expected) killer pandemic…

I’m Peter Dekom, and we are too prone to cut off our noses to spite our faces… bringing a big smile to the Grim Reaper’s evil face.