Macrotrend_Shift Away from Autocracy

“Putin is acting from weakness, not strength. His short game is force, but our long game is law. 

Ukrainians love their freedom and will not surrender it easily. Russia could not subjugate 

Afghanistan despite massive extended effort. Russia, Putin, and the oligarchs who

 support him need access to the markets, cyberspace, money, oil, and 

other resources that are conditioned on lawful behavior.” 

Harold Hongju Koh, Yale University’s Sterling Professor of International Law

 

As the United States pulled out of global stabilizing trade agreements, treaty commitments to reduce the creation of fissionable materials and mutual defense accords, we developed a reputation for unreliability. There was a general notion that the election of a president with a very isolationist, America-can-do-whatever-it wants attitude, could undo the most essential global agreements with a waive of a pen. Domestically, that attitude has become the backbone of the Republican Party, pledged to reverse decades of Supreme Court precedents, firmly established inclusive voting rights, once cherished commitments to diversity and the accurate teaching of history in our schools and even in the books kept in our public libraries. 

What’s worse, people who grew up with and believe in those values are labeled “unpatriotic,” while those willing to use violence to overthrow a democratic election referred to as “ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.” Rule by a privileged minority supporting the unilateral control of a single individual who does not consider himself bound by our constitutional legal system is called “autocracy.” The brotherhood of autocrats, dictators who encourage and support each other, was once perceived to be firm and immutable. The link to a president continuously awestruck by brutal dictatorship – Trump’s tripping all over himself to link himself to Vladimir Putin – is evidence of that cabal.

Trump’s suggestion that if he were president, a friendly request (“a favor” in his own words) of Mr. Putin would have instantly stopped the Ukraine attack, is emblematic of the unhinged mental state that typifies autocrats. As is this very recent statement (February 22nd) from Mr. Trump: This is genius… So Putin is now saying it’s independent — a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that? And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. We could use that on our southern border. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re gonna keep peace, all right." But the worm is turning.

Autocrats the world over are now looking over their shoulders. Two pro-Russian dictatorships have surprised Mr. Putin in their unwillingness to lend clear support for Putin’s false justification for attacking his democratic neighbor with clearly Western values: Ukraine. China refused to join in Russia’s UN Security Council veto of a motion of condemnation against Russia’s clearly unlawful assault against Ukraine. Xi Jinping was astute enough to see the global writing on the wall: the uniform global rejection of Putin’s unilateral and brutal war of expansion against an innocent, non-aggressive neighbor under painfully obvious false premises. And then, a fierce Russian ally has had second thoughts.

“Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a [massive] southern neighbor, is denying a [Putin] request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday [2/25]… Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine.” NBCNews.com, February 25th. This is particularly surprising given the very recent request by Kazakhstan’s continuing strongman (but retired President) Nursultan Nazarbayev's hand-picked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s request for Russian troops to quell a rising insurrection against the dictatorship. Russian sent the requested forces, and the uprising was stopped. But Tokayev is today equally aware of the tinderbox he governs, increasingly anti-Putin.

So Putin, now personally sanctioned by the West, can revel in his increasing global isolation with few remaining allies willing to accept the new breakaway “republics” and accept as justified his unprovoked attack of Ukraine… notably Belarus (which, with Russian support, crushed its own democratic rebellion in 2020) and Syria. Clearly, those within Putin’s own cabinet and the Duma (Russia’s parliament) fear for their own lives in voicing support for the Putin’s war. Moscow had to put on a strong face, but there was trepidation in their eyes:

“Moscow may respond to Western sanctions by opting out of the last nuclear arms deal with the U.S., cutting diplomatic ties with Western nations and freezing their assets, a senior Russian official warned Saturday as Russia's ties with the West dived to new lows over its invasion of Ukraine… Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin, also warned that Moscow could restore the death penalty after it was removed from Europe's top rights group.

“In sarcastic comments posted on a Russian social platform, Medvedev dismissed the sanctions as a show of Western ‘political impotence’ that will only consolidate the Russian leadership and foment anti-Western feelings…  ‘We are being driven out of everywhere, punished and threatened, but we don't feel scared,’ he said, mocking the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies as an attempt to vindicate their past ‘shameful decisions, like a cowardly retreat from Afghanistan.’” Vladimir Isachenkov writing for the February 26th Associated Press.

Knowing that they face arrest and possible charges for terrorism, tens of thousands of mostly younger Russians, have gathered for anti-war protests in major cities across the country (the above picture is a protest in Moscow). As quickly as they can be arrested, more protestors are willing to take grave personal risks to reject Putin’s war. Russians now know that they have been lied to when Putin told them he had no intention to invade Ukraine. Indeed, even as Ukrainians once poo-pooed the “exaggerations” of the Biden’s predictions of an imminent all-out invasion, they are believers now. They now are also acutely aware of Putin’s “kill lists” of political targets, also predicted by US intelligence. 

I will make a few predictions, startling to some: 1. Putin has begun an accelerated end to his reign. He will hold power only by increasing local repression, which could easily end in his “assassination” by his underlings fearful that his egomaniacal and unhinged plans could easily place their own positions at risk. 2. Globally, the rising popularity of economically efficient autocracy, the Chinese model, will fade. 3. China will moderate some of its own repression, but not so much that Xi would lose power. 4. Trump is now thoroughly unelectable, and his hold over the Republican Party is fading. Those in his propaganda arm – Fox, OAN and Newsmax – who back his vision in Ukraine, are likewise losing viewers. 5. Whether or not Ukraine falls, its citizens now know they are fighting for their lives, for freedom, prosperity and independence. Russian occupiers will continue to die if they remain, even if they rule. Russia miscalculated their passion. 6. NATO will grow stronger with increasing US support. 7. As Germany, the NATO nation most dependent on Russian natural gas, works out how to create targeted restrictions on Russia’s using the SWIFT financial messaging system, strong global support should finally cut Russia further out of international financial transactions.

The world will suffer with a whole lot more inflation, especially in the arena of oil and gas as well as supply chain disruption. Americans may vote against the Democratic majority in Congress, but these harsh realities are beyond the control of any one country or any one leader. Will America understand that fact? Will there by a greater rally to unify America over this assault on Democracy? And if so, how far will they be willing to go? Stay tuned.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the world is experiencing some major seismic shifts against autocracy, a necessary result toward global stability.