Frozen Diplomacy by Other Means

 

After the 2011 meltdown of the nuclear power plant in Fukushima, Japan, Germany had a policy meltdown. Facing anti-nuclear power popular resistance that began in the 1970s, Germany’s Angela Merkel reacted to the Japanese catastrophe (as well as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster) by beginning a systematic takedown of her nation’s nuclear power plants. She pledged that use of renewables, improvements in efficiencies and conservation would allow industrial giant Germany to meet its power needs without reliance on high-risk nuclear power. At the time, she stated: “As the first big industrialized nation, we can achieve such a transformation toward efficient and renewable energies, with all the opportunities that brings for exports, developing new technologies and jobs.” All such nuclear power production would end by 2022. In 2011, Germany’s 17 nuclear plants produced about a third of that country’s electrical power.

In 2021, Germany shut down three of the last six remaining nuclear plants, with the remaining three scheduled to be decommissioned this year. While Germany was able to fulfill half of its energy needs by the end of 2021 with renewables, but despite former Chancellor Merkel’s press to cut fossil fuel dependence to counter global climate change, fossil fuel was still necessary to pick up the other half. Berlin pledged to wean itself from coal by 2028. Germany was also still heavily dependent on natural gas, particularly to fend off its legendarily cold winters. Building alternative power sources slowed, demand rose, and Germany failed to achieve sufficient energy supply on schedule.

Despite touting itself as a major modern industrial power, Russia’s economy is, for all practical purposes based on the export of its natural resources, not its manufacturing or service sectors. And of those natural resources, nothing matters more in the international marketplace than its export of natural gas. Moscow’s biggest international market is Europe, and its biggest buyer is Germany: “Last year [in Germany, natural gas] accounted for nearly 27 percent of the energy consumed, according to government figures, an increase from 2020 that is expected to continue when the country shutters its last three nuclear power plants in December and works to phase out coal-burning power plants by 2030. And two-thirds of the gas Germany burned last year came from Russia.” Melissa Eddy, writing for the February 14th New York Times. Russian natural gas flows through a complex network of pipelines (see above map), including Ukraine. 

A new pipeline – the almost completed Nord Stream 2 (see the northern-most dotted line above) – is creating consternation as East-West tensions escalate over Russia’s aggressive posture against Ukraine. The Biden administration is vehemently opposed to placing Nord Stream 2 online. But Russia has been making Europe acutely aware of its vulnerable dependence on that Russian resource, one that cannot be easily replaced any other way. The required port facilities and ocean-going LNG tankers commercially needed to cover the shortfall if Russia were cut off would take years to build, even as the United States has an abundance supply of natural gas. If the United States wants its allies to support strong sanctions against Russia should the latter invade Ukraine – which Germany has said it would support – Russia is making sure our European allies are aware of the risk:

“For decades, Germany has been a steadfast consumer of Russian natural gas, a relationship that has seemingly grown closer over the years, surviving Cold War-era tensions, the breakup of the former Soviet Union and even European sanctions against Moscow over its annexation of Crimea. Until this winter.

“Since November, the amount of natural gas arriving in Germany from Russia has plunged, driving prices through the roof and draining reserves. These are changes that Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled energy behemoth, has been regularly pointing out… ‘As much as 85 percent of the gas injected in Europe’s underground gas storage facilities last summer is already withdrawn,’ Gazprom said on Twitter a couple of weeks ago, adding that ‘facilities in Germany and France are already two-thirds empty.’” NYT. Natural gas prices in Europe have exploded, helping to push inflationary fossil fuel prices through the roof globally, even here in the United States. With Biden being blamed for US inflation, his press of sanctions against Russia has ramifications well beyond Europe. Ouch!

“Here’s what to know about Europe’s energy supply if tensions boil over into war and Russia is hit with sanctions:

“Will Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe?... No one knows for sure, but a complete shutoff is seen as unlikely, because it would be mutually destructive… Russian officials have not signaled that they would consider cutting supplies in the case of new sanctions. Moscow relies on energy exports, and though it just signed a gas deal with China, Europe is a key source of revenue… Europe is likewise dependent on Russia, so any Western sanctions would probably avoid directly targeting Russian energy supplies.

“More likely, experts say, would be Russia withholding gas sent through pipelines crossing Ukraine. Russia pumped 175 billion cubic meters of gas into Europe last year, nearly a quarter of it through those pipelines, according to S&P Global Platts. That would leave pipelines under the Baltic Sea and through Poland still operating… ‘I think in the event of even a less severe Russian attack against Ukraine, the Russians are almost certain to cut off gas transiting Ukraine on the way to Germany,’ said former U.S. diplomat Daniel Fried, who as State Department coordinator for sanctions policy helped craft 2014 measures against Russia when it invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula… Russia could then offer to make up the lost gas if Germany approves the contentious new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, whose operators could face potential U.S. sanctions even though a recent vote to that effect failed.” Cathy Bussewitz, David McHugh and Matthew Daly writing for the February 14th Associated Press.

Putin is smugly watching as Western powers squirm between a rock (Russia’s lust for territorial expansion) and a hard place (Europe’s severe dependence on Russia natural gas). It most certainly is an ugly side of Biden’s push to counter Putin’s attempt to reassemble the old Soviet borders with Moscow at the center of power. But if we don’t…

I’m Peter Dekom, and as with most modern mega-issues there are no simple, clean and obviously effective answers to Russia’s build-up of invasion capable forces on the Ukraine border.