Iraq, Almost 50 Years Since Operation Freedom - Who Cares?

Iraq’s most powerful politician,

Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr

It was March of 2003 when US forces invaded Iraq under a false premise of taking down a dictator, former ally Saddam Hussein, purportedly harboring “weapons of mass destruction,” which could be used by extremists against the West. WMDs did not exist, but Iraq fell fast… into disarray that continues to this very day. The US-led military coalition captured Hussein, who was subsequently tried and executed. A “democratically-configured government” was imposed by the US on this oil-rich nation… which led almost immediately to a 60% Shiite majority replacing the former Sunni Hussein minority… and beginning a policy of retribution against Sunnis.

Iraq gravitated quickly into a quiet alignment with its former “enemy,” Iran, the de facto center of Shiism (roughly 20% of Islam, with Sunnism accounting for most of the rest). Sunnis were clearly relegated to second class status… as those coalition forces now battled a rising insurgency of angry Sunnis… and those who challenged the legitimacy of a very corrupt regime. Religious animosity between Sunnis (Quranic literalists) and Shiites (teaching that only designated prelates can interpret the Quran) has sequentially risen and fallen over time.

Most assume that US and Iraqi interests are aligned. “Because of the primary role taken by the United States government in deposing Saddam Hussein and establishing interim governments to replace his regime, Iraq's relationships with the U.S are expected to remain significant for the foreseeable future.” Wikipedia. But reality suggests Iraq’s alignment with Shiite Iran, an open enemy of the United States, represents yet another failure of American policies amidst conflicting religious and political factions. Vietnam and Afghanistan being two further conflict zones where US efforts collapsed. The civil unrest in Iraq consumed the United States for years.

“The Iraqi insurgency, also referred to as the Iraq Crisis, escalated after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011, resulting in violent conflict with the central government, as well as sectarian violence among Iraq's religious groups. This escalated into a civil war with the conquest of Fallujah and Mosul and major areas in northern Iraq by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS). This has resulted in airstrikes by Iran, Syria, and other countries – including the United States.” Wikipedia.

ISIS was a Sunni terrorist group quite ready to back the now humiliated Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis against Shiite rule. Yet, even after the deconstruction of ISIS, Iraq remains in utter chaos, rich with oil and yet rife with corruption, effectively in a state of paralysis since inconclusive elections in 2021. Those elections gave the largest vote to a parliamentary faction led by Shiite Moqtada al-Sadr, the former leader of the Madhi Army, but a ruling coalition simply could not be formed.

During the period of insurgency, al-Sadr had used that army to oppose the US-led coalition, often finding safe harbor in Iran. Within days of the US withdrawal, al-Sadr marched back to Iraq and has since assume a major political role. Rebranded as the Peace Brigades, al-Sadr’s army remains one of the biggest militias in the Iraqi government-recognized paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces.

However, relations between Shiite al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiites subsequently soured. Al-Sadr’s debt to Iran had seemingly expired. According to BBC.com (August 30th), “Once an Iranian ally, Mr Sadr has repositioned himself as a nationalist wanting to end US and Iranian influence over Iraq's internal affairs.” Frustrated with Iran’s continued assertion to control Shiite politics and hence Iran, al-Sadr suddenly announced he was through with politics… and pulled out of attempting to install viable coalition.

Then, all hell broke loose. His supporters stormed the presidential palace. “At least 23 people have been killed in some of the worst fighting for years in Iraq's capital, Baghdad, sparked by a key leader's decision to quit politics… Gunshots and rocket-fire rang out as supporters of Shia Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr clashed with security forces and militias aligned with Iran… The deep roots of this crisis lie in the plight of ordinary Iraqis, sick of the sectarianism and endemic corruption that has plagued their politics for two decades. It has increased the political space for those offering radical action and a way out.

“The immediate cause is in the growing, violent rivalry between the factions of Iraq's majority Shia community, vying for control of the country and the state. The deadlocked election result has led to the longest period yet without a government… Mr Sadr commands millions of followers, hundreds of whom have been camped outside parliament since storming it twice in July and August in protest at the political paralysis.

“The sight of his supporters jumping into the swimming pool of a government palace on Monday [8/29] is a reminder of his power to mobilise his base, the growing protests a sign of his reputation for radical action. More worrying is how quickly the violence has escalated in Baghdad, accompanied by a warning from the UN that the survival of the state is at stake.” BBC. The failed Iraqi governmental structure, put in place by the United States and slowly coopted by Iran, was unraveling. The US initially installed “friendly leaders” (who became mega-wealthy as the slorped at the corruption opportunity) within a government that was never designed to protect minority rights.

From a crass pragmatic perspective, chaos in a major oil producing nation could not have occurred as a more inconvenient time for the Biden administration. The US was attempting to stem oil-price-driven inflation resulting from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. With a prior embargo on Iranian oil added to the recent sanction of Russian fossil fuel exports, which roughly equals the petroleum output of Saudi Arabia, would be made so much worse if Iraq’s oil production were equally impacted.

I’m Peter Dekom, and our inability to understand nations we have invaded or sent massive troop in support of one faction over another continues to harm our overall interests and global influence when we need that support the most.