Fear and Loathing in Pyongyang

  

“In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces.” 

 A new N. Korean nuclear law

He’s cruel, amoral, fat, self-obsessed, delusional and deeply paranoid. He also sits on top of a nuclear arsenal with missile systems capable of delivering warheads to the United States. But one thing he is not is stupid. He played his “bro” Donald Trump like a violin, as the latter pledged to the American public that he was the only one capable of denuclearizing North Korea. But then-President Trump’s willingness to fly halfway around the world to meet with Kim Jong-Un three times, even across the 38th parallel that runs through the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas, just served to elevate Kim’s stature on the global stage. If anything, Trump’s efforts only resulted in Kim’s digging in his heels. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have grown deeper and stronger since.

Kim’s morbid fear is that if North Korea did not have nuclear weapons, it would instantly be conquered (neutralized) by the West, despite its protected status from the People’s Republic of China. To Beijing, having North Korea as a buffer state between China and US ally, South Korea, is a valuable reality. But Kim’s paranoia has resulted in a new mandate against the West, as the above new law attests. Writing for Reuters (September 9th), Josh Smith explains: “A new North Korean law calls for ‘automatic’ nuclear launches if the country's leadership or command and control systems are threatened, underscoring leader Kim Jong Un’s fears of a so-called ‘decapitation’ strike, experts said.

“In an updated nuclear policy law passed on Thursday [9/8], North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself, with Kim saying the legislation makes the country's nuclear status ‘irreversible’ and bars denuclearisation talks… The law outlines when North Korea could use its nuclear weapons, including if there is an attack on the government's leadership or the nuclear command and control system….

“Kim has ‘monolithic command’ over the nuclear forces, but the law's wording may indicate that if he is killed, a senior official would be designated to authorize nuclear strikes, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace… ‘The basic idea here is to communicate to the United States and South Korea that decapitating the North Korean leadership would not spare them nuclear retaliation,’ he said, noting that there are precedents in other nuclear states, including the United States during the Cold War.

“Both the United States and Russia have employed technical systems, including the Soviet Union's infamous ‘Dead Hand,’ designed to ensure nuclear retaliation even if leaders are killed… For now, that sort of ‘fail deadly’ system in North Korea seems unlikely, Panda said… ‘I would expect, for the moment, the fail deadly system would rely on organizational steps: for instance, the First Secretary of the Workers’ Party could confirm that Kim Jong Un had been killed in the course of a conflict, thereby authorizing the release of nuclear weapons,’ he said…

“South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, has publicly given new emphasis to the so-called ‘Kill Chain’ system to counter a North Korean nuclear attack, and is pouring resources into boosting the weapons that would be used under such plans, including F-35A stealth fighters and missiles launched from submarines.”

Kim’s paranoia and personal insecurity are pushing him to seek myriad protective umbrellas, beyond his coverage from the PRC or the above nuclear response mandate, to an effort to bring Moscow closer. Effectively, Russia and North Korea – both nuclear powers – are the most prominent rogue nations on earth today, eclipsing even Syria. But Russia’s “disappointing” invasion against Ukraine has revealed a surprising vulnerability within Russia’s conventional weapons arsenal, one that North Korea was quick to embrace. Recent news sources reported a probable conventional weapons transaction between Moscow and Pyongyang.

The Voice of America (voanews.com), September 8th, reported: “North Korea and Russia may be natural partners for the type of weapons sale alleged by U.S. officials this week [first week in September], but the possible unreliability of some North Korean arms presents a complication for Russia’s military, defense analysts warn… U.S. officials on Tuesday [9/6] claimed Russia is in the process of purchasing ‘millions of rockets and artillery shells’ for use in Ukraine, where Moscow is six months into a war that appears to have reached a bloody stalemate.

“The sale has not been independently confirmed. Many details are unclear, including whether the weapons have already been transferred. On Tuesday [9/6], a Russian diplomat rejected the U.S. allegation as ‘fake.’ But such a transaction in many ways would make sense… Russia has exhausted vast quantities of weapons in Ukraine. According to an independent estimate by Russian defense analyst Pavel Luzin, Russia could be on pace to run out of artillery shells by the end of the year.” But not only does North Korea have limited supplies of the purported munitions, those convention weapons have a failure rate that may be upwards of 25%.

“‘This high failure rate suggests that some [North Korean]-manufactured artillery munitions – especially MRL rounds [for multiple-barrel incendiary rocket launchers] – suffer from either poor quality control during manufacturing or that storage conditions and standards are poor,’ a report at the time by 38 North, a U.S.-based site that monitors North Korea, said.’…

“No matter what kind of weapons Russia may buy from North Korea, the transaction would violate a 2016 United Nations Security Council resolution. The resolution, supported at the time by Russia, forbids the export of North Korean weapons ‘that support or enhance the operational capabilities of armed forces’ of another U.N. member state.” VOA. Russia actually voted in favor of this resolution?! For those who still believe that there is a foreseeable diplomatic path to denuclearize North Korea, it’s time to stop dreaming and deal with reality. We must learn to live with Pyongyang ‘s nukes… and contain and deter Kim’s use of that arsenal as we have with other nuclear-armed foes.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as climate change is searing and flooding vast portions of the planet, the severe damage that can be inflicted by nuclear armed rogue nations cannot be underestimated, a strong argument for the West’s continued efforts to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression.