Electric Cars… Not Quite Yet

 

Looks like a lot of dots, but when you think about the number of cars on the road – the number of expected EV cars on the road – those dots, representing public EV charging stations across the land illustrated by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center, are relatively few and far between. High speed charging stations, presented in the map on the right (in the MIT Technology Review) are even rarer: there are only 6,000 of them in the US today. Effectively today, 80% of EV charging takes place at home, where nighttime replenishment can take hours if necessary, and most people do not drive more than 30 miles a day.

Yet few people buy new cars with the expectation that they will never be able to take an efficient road trip. Can they charge on the road? Is their car even able to use a high-speed charging station anyway? Do they have to wait in a long line to get to an available “electric pump”? How long will a full charge take? How many charges are necessary per day on the road trip? Are their plugs compatible with those at the charging station? With EV ranges generally not above 200-250 miles, these are essential issues.

A hybrid would seem a better choice (my wife and I each drive hybrids), but they clearly run out of electrical power even on a relatively short road trip. Great for commuting, but no so great on a road trip, especially with the dramatic dearth of charging stations even at major hotels and motels, as we discovered in a drive to and from Los Angeles, California and Santa Fe, New Mexico. We only were able to access four charging stations along the way: three at hotels, one at a government office building.

Writing for the August 23rd FastCompany.com, Janet Ooi of Keysight Technologies points out Biden administration goals and the barrier issues: “Global sales of electric vehicles (EV) are projected to reach 40 million by the end of 2030. Coupled with The White House’s target that 50% of new U.S. car sales must be zero emission by the end of the decade, the industry needs to rapidly scale to achieve these milestones. However, before the global acceleration to the EV future can be realized, there are some fundamental challenges to overcome.

“These constraints include battery technology, charging infrastructure, universal standards, and energy management. The industry ecosystem will need to navigate the current limitations if EV ambitions are to become a reality.” Let’s assume, and this is a large assumption, that our already overtaxed electrical power generating capacity can handle the expect shift away from gasoline to electrical vehicular power.

And yes, even as electrical power remains seriously dependent on fossil fuel. According to Science News (3/23/20), “[A] new study by the universities of Exeter, Nijmegen and Cambridge has concluded that electric cars lead to lower carbon emissions overall, even if electricity generation still involves substantial amounts of fossil fuel.” First, individual gasoline-powered cars vary in terms of emissions, depending on maintenance and vehicle age. So, taking such cars off the road is a good first step. Second, our main power generators are themselves becoming increasingly efficient, less dependent on “there’s no such thing as clean” coal-powered plants, and increasingly finding power via alternative energy.

The next major barrier is battery capacity (range). Ooi explores that issue as well: “[R]esearch is developing solid-state batteries that have a much higher density, resulting in them being lighter and fueling a longer range. Data shows these batteries can charge to 98% in under ten minutes, and the challenge now is to commercialize this transformative technology.

“These developments will address EV batteries’ distance limitations, and 600 miles will become commonplace before the end of the decade, leaving range anxiety in the rear-view mirror. Another important step will be developing standards regulating in car battery performance.

“As EV adoption increases, this will drive up the demand for different raw materials resulting in some supply chain disruption. As a result, battery costs will take longer to decrease and affordability will remain a challenge in the immediate future. However, prices will drop as the industry increasingly shifts to recycling materials to ensure long-term sustainability.” Currently, we are dramatically inefficient in recycling toxic rare earths needed for battery power, but that is a very solvable issue with a prioritized commitment to that effect.

Nevertheless, without a massive buildout of charging stations, particularly the level 3 high-speed chargers, we are a long way from truly shifting from gasoline to electrical vehicular power. With major petroleum producers fighting to maintain old-world gasoline stations, even the new climate change initiatives face an uphill battle. Without pushing back, hard, the fate of EV cars in very much in the balance. And while plug standardization – mostly Tesla vs the rest, at least in the United States – is a necessary step, today you can buy an adaptor to use to access Tesla stations no matter what you plug may look like. Not a perfect solution, but it works.

I’m Peter Dekom, and in the end – perhaps accelerated by the recent explosive and unexpected rise of gasoline prices generated by global political instability – it comes down to individual consumers making individual choices that will make or break the rise of EV cars.