It’s Not a Major Question: Are We Experiencing a Fantastic or Horrible Economy?
"A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone." Ignoring Congress’ right to determine such allocations, an unsubtle Trump attempt to buy better poll results, posted on his Truth Social, November 9th.
“Violent innocence is a term that posits that a person or institution can cause significant harm while remaining morally ambiguous and/or seemingly ‘unaware’ that they are causing it.”
Alexandra Cromer, licensed psychotherapist.
“Now, if we do what I’m saying [eliminate the Senate filibuster rule, Democrats will] never — they’ll most likely never attain power… Because we will have passed every single thing that you can imagine that is good, and all good for the country.”
Donald Trump to GOP Senators at a White House breakfast meeting.
Donald Trump 2.0 inherited an economy on the rise. Inflation was moderating, prices were falling, and employment numbers were exceptionally positive. As Trump 2.0 settled in, except for a seasonal post-summer decline in the price of gasoline, prices were rising fast, the job market was increasingly closed to new applicaånts, the cost of all forms of medical insurance were beginning a powerful upward trajectory (especially government-funded programs), support for the working poor, the elderly and children in the lower reaches of our economy slashed as the tax rate for the rich was cut… all amidst wildly inaccurate, nasty Trumpian descriptions. To MAGA Republicans, derision for “failure” was usually described as caused by “Biden,” and to most Democrats, derision was the rule for all things “Trump.”
Are elections shifting back to “it’s the economy, stupid” or are they now squarely in the “woke” vs “fact” driven culture war? Surprise, surprise, it an odd “it’s the economy, stupid” as defined through the relevant cultural lens of the individual voter. And that often depends on whether that voter has outsourced his/her opinion to a MAGA leader, a Newsom/Pritzker Democratic leader (or perhaps a younger AOC/Mamdani voice) or is actually drilling down into empirical reality. Labels vs facts?
As the hard failures of Trump illogical rejection of economic reality are working an obvious betrayal of his campaign pledges to his worshiping minority followers, his followers are confused and unable to frame that “blame Biden” connection so clearly anymore. You can see that reality in the polls blaming Republicans more than Democrats for the shutdown and for the November 4th sweep in those limited elections, where, despite his denials, Trump and his policies were the centerpiece of that vote. MAGA denials (describing failure as success or simply claiming ignorance) over extreme and undeniable actions are increasingly producing voter skepticism.
That notion of violent innocence – profoundly disingenuous as visuals of ICE atrocities, long food lines, troops in uniform roaming streets, and closed rural hospitals permeate social media and traditional news – are no longer blindly accepted by all but the most extreme MAGA followers.
The issues facing frustrated voters remain the same: affordability of everything, unacceptable wealth/income disparity, declining standard of living, cruel immigration tactics, the effectiveness of federal troops in cities, and the direct and immediate connection between tariffs and costs. Voters see these issues through their chosen lenses, even as Trump’s obviously exaggerated or simply false statements no longer resonate with a majority of independent, Democratic and a growing segment of Trump believers.
Trump seems to have reached the conclusion that he and his MAGA minions have no shot to win the midterms, as he escalates his efforts at gerrymandering and calls for the Senate Republicans to do away with the filibuster (60-vote requirement to get most bills to a floor vote). Clearly, Trump believes he can eliminate or neutralize voter opposition. GOP Senators, on the other hand, still protecting the filibuster (which could be used against them after future elections), obviously believe that elections will not be negated.
And there is another variable, a sign of America’s future no matter who is leading the nation. As rich unbridled capitalists – Trump favored “winners” – get disproportionately wealthier, Gen Z is facing affordability like no other. Trump’s culture war attack on “elites” focused on universities with research grants, as he accorded billionaire elites huge economic rewards, obviously missed the mark.
Further, Gen Z did not live through the “duck and cover” or “domino theory” eras that shaped X Gen’s and older’s passionate commitment that socialism is inherently evil. To Gen Z, it is unbridled capitalism that has betrayed them and stolen their future. Capitalism is the new evil, and passionate iconoclastic younger political voices (represented by the straw hat pirate symbolized above) are the messengers of their new political demands. They are debt-ridden with student loans, cannot afford housing and are finding an unpleasant job market.
“Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya posted a screenshot of the email on X after Mamdani, a self-described Democratic Socialist, defeated former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa to become the next mayor of the nation's largest city… ‘Too much student debt and lack of affordable housing keeps young people with negative capital for too long,’ Palihapitiya wrote on X. ‘And without a stake in the capitalist system, they will turn against it.’” Raw Story, November 6th.
The administration’s November 5th oral argument before the Supreme Court, in support of his inane tariff policy, seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Trump’s argument was that his global tariffs fit neatly into the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law that did not mention “tariffs,” gave a president unfettered ability to set tariffs for any country, at any level, for as long as needed, whenever an “emergency” is declared at the president’s sole discretion. Trump is the first president to try use the IEEPA to set tariffs without Congress, and the justices pushed fast-talking gravel voiced Solicitor General John Sauer to justify that sweeping authority. "We don't contend that what's being exercised here is the power to tax, it's the power to regulate foreign commerce. These are regulatory tariffs; they are not revenue-raising tariffs. The fact that the raise revenue is only incidental,” said Sauer unconvincingly. Former Solicitor General, Neal Katyal, was dead on in his opening rebuttal in his amicus capacity. “Tariffs are taxes.” Apparently, a lingering 50-year history of our global trade imbalance was not an “emergency” in any sense of the word. We’ll soon see if the Court finally clips King Trump’s wings.
But if there were rising hope about the new Democratic Party backbone, that hope was dashed as eight older Democratic Senators (some retiring, a couple not facing the next election cycle) voted for the GOP Continuing Resolution bill (still needing House passage and a presidential signature) to end the shutdown, in exchange for: a longer extension till the next budget vote, restoration of SNAP benefits (for now), undoing purported firings of federal employees and full back pay for furloughed federal employees, but missing the primary objective in the Democratic holdout: medical issues were left to twist in the wind (ACA supplements were not extended), to be considered later in the year. Younger Democrats were appalled at the sacrifice of their strongest bargaining power in Trump 2.0 and now depended on GOP good faith on medical issues… knowing that cutting such benefits has been a Republican priority since the ACA was passed in 2010. “Betrayal” echoed throughout the Democratic Party.
I’m Peter Dekom, and I hope this tariff case begins Trump’s transition to “lame duck” status, and perhaps he can celebrate his pending departure in his brand new “fit for a king” White House grand ballroom.
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