As we hear fewer uses of the words, the “war on terror” – rhetoric that means just one thing in the Muslim world: the U.S. is waging war on their sacred Islamic faith – it is equally clear that the scope of the “problem in the Middle East” makes economic recovery and the “reinvention” of America seem like a cake walk. While President Obama tries to neutralize the demonic depiction of America in the eyes of those most likely to mount a vicious attack on the United States (fundamentalist leaders have made sure that the masses believe that America’s “war on terror” is aimed at precisely at them), the changing political landscape in the region augurs very badly for our near-term desire to defuse regional conflict.
Iranian President Ahmahdinejad proselytized to the world that Obama’s willingness to engage in dialog is a sign of weakness. Massive demonstrations all over Iran continue to celebrate 1979 the fall of the Pahlavi monarchy and the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini‘s Islamic Republic (including the 444 days hostage crisis as American Embassy staff and officials were held as captives by the new regime) – cheering throngs who see their nuclear program as their manifest destiny. There has been significant new power realignment in the region. Shiite Iran has sacrificed religious fever for their interpretation of Islam in favor of embracing Muslim radicalism, even if it means joining forces with their hated Sunni brethren (like Hamas).
As believers in a literal interpretation of the Quran (where the faithful have a direct, personal, one-on-one relationship with God), Sunnis have long despised the mystical Shiites (who believe that the Quran is a mystical communication from God that can only be deciphered by and channeled through the highest level of religious leadership), this antagonism has literally kept the Islamic world mired in an internecine conflict that has prevented a genuine pan-Muslim unification of Islamist radicalism against the non-Muslim world. The fact that Iran has embraced the regional destabilization of Sunni groups like Hamas (which has now aligned itself with Iran as well) – Hamas itself has powerful links to other Sunni fundamentalist groups, including the Islamic Jihad, the Muslim Brotherhood and, of course, al Qaeda – is terrifying.
Hamas withdrew most of its key leadership and elite forces to safe havens during the recent battle in Gaza. They secretly delighted as Israeli actions destroyed civilian targets (especially a U.N. school) and killed scores of non-combatants, including innocent children. The world looked on in horror at the scenes of carnage and decimation left of what was generally perceived as “Israeli overkill.” Images of the horror of Hamas rocket fire into southern Israel (over 400 strikes before the Israeli response) seem to have been lost somewhere. CNN: “Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal [who lives in exile in Damascus, Syria] met with Iran's supreme leader on [February 2nd], and provided Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a detailed account of Hamas' ‘victory’ over Israel in Gaza, according to Iranian media reports.”
As Palestinian militants (Hamas) fired four more rockets into southern Israel on February 2nd, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert replied that "if firing continues against residents of the south, there would be a sharp Israeli response that would be disproportionate… We will not go back to the rules of the game that the terrorist organizations tried to dictate in the past. ... We will act according to new rules that will ensure that we are not dragged into an unending shooting war on the southern border." The Israeli-Palestinian powder keg just added a new fuse.
Iran was getting its wishes granted at an alarming rate. Not only had the U.S. been weakened by its long, economy-sapping war in Iraq that clearly placed a Shiite friendly majority (read: Iran friendly) government in power (by replacing the former Sunni strongman), but Iran was able to attack its new regional rallying focus – Israel – without spilling a drop of Iranian blood, through its surrogates, Shiite Hezbollah (from southern Lebanon) and now Sunni Hamas (from Gaza), while beginning to garner admiration from masses of impoverished, disenfranchised and otherwise humiliated Sunnis who had previously looked at Shiites in general and Iran in particular as enemies of the true faith. Local despots had much to fear in the rising populist support that their Sunni constituency was now directing at the destabilizing power of Iran.
But Israel is unlikely to moderate its position anytime soon; hardliners (the Likud party) are leading in the polls. The more that Iran speaks of the total destruction of Israel, the higher Israel’s priority to keep nuclear weapons out of Iran. In a January 31st interview on Israel's Channel 2 TV, Likud’s Benjamin Netanyahu, the leading candidate for prime minister, stated that Iran is the greatest threat to humanity and that Iran "will not be armed with a nuclear weapon." With this strong suggestion of a military solution, Iran may find that the battle has been brought directly to its nuclear processing facilities. The aftermath of such an attack will only escalate regional tensions and further complicate Obama’s desire for regional peace and stability.
With a number of former Soviet states (the so-called “CIS” countries) clearly having large if not majority Muslim populations, with Indonesia being the largest Muslim nation on earth (joined by other Asian Muslim nations like Malaysia) and noting the growth of Islam in Africa, this realignment has significant consequences for the earth as a whole. Russian leader Vladimir Putin realized that his alliance with Iran was an efficient way to counter American efforts in the region – a little fact that seems to have slipped from the headlines of late.
As the world focuses heavily on the economic chaos of a managed depression, Obama’s effort to change the face of America is the least expensive policy possible against an Islamic fundamentalist movement that will use global impoverishment as a recruiting tool. It is unlikely that Iran will forsake its nuclear program to please a new American President seeking détente; their policy of indirect attacks and financing and arming Muslim radicals of all versions of Islam, their defiance of Western wishes by continuing their nuclear program, have worked all too well to cement their growing perception as the power in the region. But the next fuse has been it; we are going to face some very difficult issues in the very near term.
I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.
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