I-Rocky V – I Told You So

The Kurds are pulling away from the rest of the Iraq, creating their own constitution, reclaiming the oil fields taken from them by former dictator, Saddam Hussein: “The proposed constitution enshrines Kurdish claims to territories and the oil and gas beneath them. But these claims are disputed by both the federal government in Baghdad and ethnic groups on the ground, and were supposed to be resolved in talks begun quietly last month between the Iraqi and Kurdish governments, sponsored by the United Nations and backed by the United States. Instead, the Kurdish parliament pushed ahead and passed the constitution, partly as a message that it would resist pressure from the American and Iraqi governments to make concessions.” July 10^th NY Times.

As time passes, the issue remains unresolved. U.S. forces withdrew from Iraqi cities on June 30^th, and the big question is whether a nation, conceived in post-World War I efforts by the victors to carve up the former Ottoman Empire with little reference to local realities, can survive as a functional democracy. Hussein’s brutal reign placed his minority Sunnis (representing slightly more than 20% of the population, mostly centered in the southwestern provinces far from most of the country’s oil production) above the northern Kurds and the majority Shiites. Shiite holdings – stretching across the central and coastal regions where oil production is the heaviest – represent the richest part of Iraq.

And bottom line, the Sunnis hate and do not trust the Shiites – who have tried repeatedly to push the Sunnis out of Baghdad and away from any area of value. The Kurds don’t trust the Shiites either. And the Shiites are divided between those with ties to fundamentalist religious ties (well supplied with arms and support from neighboring Iran – Shiite Islamic mysticism remains an anathema to the literalist form Islam practiced by Sunnis) and those with allegiance to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s more secular government. But make no mistake, al-Maliki’s government very much represents the Shiite majority. Sunnis have taken to suicide bombings against Shiite targets; tensions remain exceptionally high. But Shiite fundamentalist attacks are also on the rise, and it seems as if al-Maliki is turning a blind eye to these rising Shiite threats.

U.S. forces slowly gained a semblance of begrudging trust from Sunnis who saw American support as a wedge of protection from hostile Shiite domination. But as U.S. policies – supported by mandates and agreements with the incumbent al-Maliki government – pushed the withdrawal of military forces down a set timeline, the severe rifts among the three factions threatened to fracture this country almost as quickly as our departure could permit. There is genuine doubt as to whether this “Iraqi nation” had any possibility of remaining a unified and viable state.

Lest there be any doubt as to the intentions of the al-Maliki government’s intent, the message was clear. The July 18^th Washington Post: “In a curt missive issued by the Baghdad Operations Command on July 2 -- the day after Iraqis celebrated the withdrawal of U.S. troops to bases outside city centers -- Iraq's top commanders told their U.S. counterparts to ‘stop all joint patrols’ in Baghdad. It said U.S. resupply convoys could travel only at night and ordered the Americans to ‘notify us immediately of any violations of the agreement.’ … The strict application of the agreement coincides with what U.S. military officials in Washington say has been an escalation of attacks against their forces by Iranian-backed Shiite extremist groups, to which they have been unable to fully respond.

“If extremists realize ‘some of the limitations that we have, that's a vulnerability they could use against us,’ a senior U.S. military intelligence official said. ‘The fact is that some of these are very politically sensitive targets’ thought to be close to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.” The Prime Minister’s impatience, not even waiting until the Americans have fully departed, has begun what the Kurds and Sunnis feared most – a clear Shiite domination (backed by close ties to Iran) of the entire country. The writing is on the wall; the very concept of a unified Iraq appears to be little more than an American theory with limited chances of success.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.