Subcontinental Subversive

As well-armed and hostile Taliban forces moved from the northern Swat Valley toward the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, as other Taliban forces rise up in the ungovernable tribal districts, understanding that Afghani Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, the one-eyed wonder who gave sanctuary to the al Qaeda forces that fomented the 9/11 attacks, probably now sits in Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan (Pakistan), where he leads top commanders supervising the war in southern Afghanistan, it is clear that the Taliban are the number one menace facing Pakistan, right? Not exactly.

India remains their main “enemy,” even though India seems to have accelerated into the modern era and no longer views its struggle with Pakistan as its central political focus. Islamabad believes that they can “work out” their issues with fellow Muslim Taliban – even though they never seem to be able to accomplish this goal despite numerous attempts – but fellow nuclear power, India , remains their primary fear.

Pakistan , a seemingly feudalistic nation led by the scions of old world land barons and political dynasties, is absolutely mired in the past. They drill down on India’s northern (and heavily Muslim) state of Kashmir, which most Pakistanis believe should sever its affiliation with mostly-Hindu India and join with mostly Muslim Pakistan – a religious line of demarcation that stemmed from the forcible split of the former British colony, in 1948, into separate Muslim and Hindu nations. Kashmir is filled with militant separatists who draw training and support from Pakistan .

The Muslim terrorists who attacked Mumbai, India last year in a deadly attack from the sea last year – resulting in the death of 160 people from these assaults on luxury hotels, a train station, a crowded cafe and a Jewish center – all had links to Pakistan. Even as India and Pakistan reluctantly share information that could prevent such terrorist attacks in the future, Pakistan remains obsessed with the “threat of India ”; it is what average Pakistanis believe about their world. The Taliban are a pain, but except when they move on the established government, Pakistan is pretty much content to let them do “what Taliban do.”

The result is that there is little sympathy at the government or popular level for any reaction or suppression of any Taliban (“fellow Muslim”) forces except when they act against the incumbent government. That they foment attacks in neighboring Afghanistan , well, again, it’s just what “Taliban do.” In fact, Pakistan’s main spy service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the service which works with our C.I.A. is notoriously sympathetic to Taliban ambitions in Afghanistan and not particularly interested in aiding American interests in the region… oh, they don’t mind getting U.S. military aid, but there are strong reasons to believe that such support has only been used in a most limited manner to contain Taliban militant who threaten U.S. interests; rumors abound that our funding is simply expanding Pakistan’s nuclear power.

Pakistan loves our technology but really hates when we use it in their backyard. On July 22^nd, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani asked the U.S. to provide real-time intelligence, deliver of the super-secret drones for the Pakistanis to control themselves and other military assistance to combat the Taliban. He wants the drones out of U.S. control and out of Pakistani airspace (they are really controversial), but it is unlikely that we would share drone technology with Pakistan (they would have a high probability of being used against our ally, India ). I guess he also needs more U.S. aid simply because they seem to have used so much of the American cash supplied to them for programs other than the containment of terrorists operating on their soil as we intended. But with the step-up in the Afghanistan war, things in Pakistan are definitely getting dicier.

NATO forces, led by U.S. Marines, have moved into the mountainous regions of Afghanistan’s Helmand Province, which borders Baluchistan, an area that has become a stronghold of regional Taliban, who have used the short trip across the Pakistani border to secure safe haven from land-based U.S. assaults (U.S. drones and air attacks have often crossed into Pakistani territory, however). Allied forces have announced a plan to purge Taliban control of the area and keep troops behind to maintain that status. Pakistan hates this idea.

The July 22^nd New York Times: “Pakistani officials have told the Obama administration that the Marines fighting the Taliban in southern Afghanistan will force militants across the border into Pakistan, with the potential to further inflame the troubled province of Baluchistan, according to Pakistani intelligence officials… Pakistan does not have enough troops to deploy to Baluchistan to take on the Taliban without denuding its border with its archenemy, India , the officials said. Dialogue with the Taliban, not more fighting, is in Pakistan ’s national interest, they said.” Moving troops away from the Indian border is a non-starter for Pakistani military leaders. Taliban will be Muslim neighbors long after Americans depart the region, they assert.

A briefing document supplied by the ISI reads in part: “The surge in Afghanistan will further reinforce the perception of a foreign occupation of Afghanistan . It will result in more civilian casualties; further alienate local population. Thus more local resistance to foreign troops.” Bottom line is that our bottom line is not their bottom line. Stabilizing this region could prove vastly more elusive that our quest for stability in Iraq . And it is not possible to have a stable Afghanistan without a parallel containment of Taliban activities in Pakistan .

I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.