Modern warfare places lots of surrogates and placeholders representing regional or even global powers into local conflicts. Sometimes, these wars can be contained strictly to the surrogate’s homeland… and sometimes these conflicts spread like fully metastasized malignant cancer. So it is in the Middle East as the feud between Sunnis and Shiite – which dates back to shortly after the death of the Prophet Muhammad – is spreading rapidly.
As a reminder as to why these two Islamic sects seem to hate each other, the violence of mutual distaste goes way beyond the differentiated lineage that most people believe divides the pair; it is a basic conflict of in the way they view their core values as reflected in the Qur’an. Sunnis believe this Holy Book must be literally read by every faithful Muslim. Shiites adhere to the notion that the Qur’an is a mystical revelation that can only be divined by the holiest of clergy, something lay practitioners must simply accept.
It’s a question of numbers, allegiances and quest for power and respect. 85% of all Muslims are Sunnis. Shiites are the 15% minority, many scattered into unpopular enclaves (such as those in Pakistan’s western Tribal District), but there are places where Shiites have significant numbers or unique positions of power. With 90% of its population being Shiites, Iran (a theocracy where the faith and the state are one) is the center of the modern resurrection of this sect, long left without leadership since the death of their papal 12th Imam in the 10th century. Since the 1979 revolution, Supreme Ayatollahs seem to have filled that clerical leadership void, and most Shiite faithful now look to Tehran for spiritual guidance. As the 20% Iraqi minority Sunnis (versus 60% majority Shiites) protest the erosion of their political power with bomb blasts against Shiite targets primarily in Baghdad, Iraq has rapidly become a loyal satellite to their neighbor Iran.
The new explosive atmosphere in the Middle East has most definitely ignited a wildfire with the civil war in Syria. Iran is squarely behind the Assad regime, representing a Shiite sub-sect (Shiites represent only 13% of the population), the Alawites, who rule a country that is 74% Sunni. Iran’s political puppet, Hezbollah, which is pretty strongly entrenched in running Lebanon, is responding to Iran’s yanking puppet strings as its party leader, Hassan Nasrallah, pledges his Lebanese supporters that with Hezbollah’s support, Assad will maintain his grip on Syria and that the rebels will be crushed. Hezbollah has been active in funneling arms to Assad and sending fighters to bolster the Syrian incumbent’s forces. These Shiites do not want their minority rulers in Syria to lose control.
Almost immediately after Nazarallah’s statement, on May 26th, two retaliatory rockets crashed into Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut. A rocket then launched from that general area into Israel. The civil war was definitely spilling into Lebanon. But before we smile that the Iran-Hezbollah-Assad cartel is getting slammed in the raging rebellion from Syria, it is important to remember that some of our worst nightmares – from al Qaeda to the Taliban – are anti-Shiite Sunni extremists. And it precisely this conundrum – that aiding Syrian rebels may well be arming these Sunnis extremists – that allows Nazarallah to push the Shiite envelope and come out openly in his escalating support of the Assad regime.
“Mr. Nasrallah, a shrewd political operator, appears to be calculating that the West, thrown off balance by the rise of jihadist factions among the Syrian rebels, will not jump in on the rebel side. The United States’ call for a political solution, while allowing Saudi Arabia and Qatar to arm the rebels, likewise, seems to have not shaken his confidence… To the contrary, Mr. Assad can now head into negotiations planned for next month with a stronger hand, while the Syrian opposition is as divided and disorganized as ever.
“Hezbollah ‘wouldn’t do this if they thought there was going to be some kind of reaction,’ said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. ‘They’re basically calling Obama’s bluff….Mr. Nasrallah, though, sought to refute accusations of sectarianism, portraying Hezbollah as acting to defend Lebanon from some of the Sunni militant groups who have joined the rebel side and who consider the Shiites infidels. ‘If we do not go there to fight them,’ he said, ‘they will come here [to Lebanon].’” New York Times, May 25th.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, as U.S. forces pull out of Afghanistan, the Taliban are expanding their operations throughout the region. As the United States leaves, “a broader disengagement is also likely to diminish the financing, prestige and political importance Pakistan held as a crucial player in global counterterrorism efforts, and could upset its internal stability… The diminution of the [U.S.] drone campaign may ease a major point of friction between Pakistan and the West, but the tribal belt in northwestern Pakistan, where about 360 drone strikes have landed in the past decade, remains a hotbed of Islamist militancy, largely outside government control. Although many senior leaders of Al Qaeda sheltering there have been felled by C.I.A. missiles, they have been largely replaced by committed Pakistani jihadists with ties that span the border with Afghanistan.
“With American combat troops leaving Afghanistan in 2014, and the drone campaign already winding down in Pakistan, analysts fear that unless the Pakistani Army can assert itself conclusively, the tribal region could be plunged into deeper chaos… ‘It’s going to be a lot of trouble,’ said Hasan Askari-Rizvi, a Pakistani academic and defense analyst. ‘If the insurgency increases in Afghanistan, it will spill into Pakistan’s tribal areas, where the Taliban will become very confident.’” NY Times. Shiites, slaughtered in bomb attacks in Quetta (in the Tribal District) tremble in fear at the ultra-violent Sunnis extremists who seem equally dedicated to their extinction.
In short, we are watching the escalating conflict in Syria become increasingly part of the long-standing struggle between Shiites and Sunnis, rapidly spreading into a much larger conflict zone across the Islamic world. The civil war within nations is now part of the growing civil war between Sunnis and Iranian-led Shiites. And you wonder why this embattled 15% Islamic minority is fighting so hard to build its nuclear capabilities. Whatever the issues, no good is likely to come from this roiling and expanding explosion of hellish hostility.
I’m Peter Dekom, and the Middle East seems to be a vortex of escalating violence from which the world cannot escape!
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