India Underwater

Sometimes we forget that “another truly volatile” region rests with South Asia, among nations once joined as a single country until 1947, when Muslims fled north and Hindus fled south to form, respectively, modern day Pakistan and India. In 1971, in a war that very much involved India, Pakistan lost Bangladesh, which became an independent state. The friction between these two nations – involving everything from outright wars (1965, 1971 and the 1999 Kargil conflict) to Pakistani claims over the largely Muslim northern State of Kashmir to India’s assertion that Pakistani money supported a brutal 2008 attack of Islamist against numerous civilian targets in Mumbai –  almost never drops below simmering and imminent conflict.

In 1967, India’s long-standing nuclear program produced weapon systems which were finally test-fired in 1974. Noting that India had crushed Pakistan in the above-noted 1971 war, Pakistan ramped up its own nuclear development programs, announcing its own nuclear weapons (cold-tested in 1983), with both countries – bound by treaty not to use nukes against each other – testing with actual explosions in 1988. Pakistan’s father of nuclear weapons – Dr. A.Q. Kahn – apparently had no issues sharing his technological advances with North Korea and Iran, suffering little more than a short-term “house arrest” for his “crime.”

How do Indians and Pakistanis feel about each other today? “According to a 2013 BBC World Service Poll, 11% of Indians view Pakistan's influence positively, with 45% expressing a negative view, while 19% of Pakistanis view India's influence positively, with 54% expressing a negative view.” Wikipedia. But weapon systems other than nuclear warheads also continue to be built. In 2012, India “leased” a Russian nuclear submarine (INS Chakra), even as it was building its own submersible nuclear capacity.

They’ve been using Russian-built Kilo class (diesel-electric) subs for years, but they are beginning to wear out… or have “other” issues. For example: On August 14^th, a fire broke out on the Kilo class INS Sindhurakshak, docked in Mumbai.“At least 18 sailors [were] feared to be trapped on board an Indian submarine that caught fire after an explosion in a Mumbai dockyard, officials say… Many sailors managed to jump to safety, Indian media reports say. Some of the injured were taken to hospital…  It is unclear what caused the explosion on the INS Sindhurakshak but dramatic images on Indian television appear to show a large fireball illuminating the sky. Smoke from the blaze could be seen in many parts of the city.” BBC.co.uk, August 14^th. So India is about to modernize her underwater fleet.

Enter India’s own Arihant (literally, “destroyer of enemies”) locally-manufactured entry into the world of nuclear submarines. The INS Arihant (pictured above) has just been cleared for sea trials. Armed with missiles (Indian-made, and yes, they can carry nuclear warheads), “smart” torpedoes (also locally made) and a 95-person crew, the Arihant is powered by an 85-megawatt nuclear reactor and can reach over 27 miles an hour (24 knots or 44 kilometers per hour) according to published statistics.

What does this mean for regional stability? According to the BBC’s Jonathan Marcus, “Once operational, the Arihant will mark a strategic milestone... India's deployment of a nuclear triad - the capacity to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air - will influence the strategic calculations of other nuclear players in the region, Pakistan and certainly China.” BBC.co.UK, August 10^th.  In short, this development is nothing more than a spur in the side of a galloping horse of a regional arm’s race. None of these great powers remotely trust each other, and the fact that India probably received Russian technological assistance to develop the Arihant cannot be lost on China, and most certainly not Pakistan.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the dispersion of sophisticated weapons capacity across so many nations around the world does not augur well for the prospects of peaceful co-existence.