The Arab “Spring a Leak”

We have to start any analysis of the Middle East with one not-so-pleasant reality: with the exception of Israel – our feisty, often-difficult but unwavering ally – the region is not particularly fond of the United States. With a history of supporting brutal dictators willing to “help” American policies in exchange for military aid that keeps them in power… and backing Israel even when the latter seems to be rubbing salt in open Arab wounds, the U.S. is hardly likely to reverse it negative image in the region anytime soon… no matter what we do. Our long-standing willingness to ignore our own purported democratic values to foster military, political and economic hegemony for decades is not lost on the regional populace.

Our momentary assistance to anti-Qaddafi Tunisian rebels is long-since forgotten in the cacophony of Islamist factionalism, Benghazi killings and militant dreams of an Islamic empire stretching from North Africa well into South Asia and beyond. Egypt’s flirtation with democracy ended, according to those supporting the military “adjustment” (hey, if it were a “coup,” American law requires that military aid be stopped instantly!!!), when Muhammad Morsi shoved an Islamist-leaning constitution through a governmental body that did not have the power to implement a new constitution or, according to the Muslim Brotherhood, when a democratically-elected President was deposed by the military. Any way you look at it, it’s over.

The Syrian debacle offers the United States a dramatic lose-lose scenario: allow a murderous, WMD-gas-employing dictator who continues a slaughter that has taken more than 100,000 lives or help overthrow that dictator with a likely postscript of civil war and violently anti-American Islamist militants to ready press for leadership. A strong, democratic secular government that supports religious and ethnic minorities is our vision what should happen, but that would fall under the category of “it’s a miracle!” What exactly are we doing with Assad gassing his people to death? “Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel suggested [August 23^rd] that the Pentagon was moving naval forces closer to Syria in preparation for a possible decision by President Obama to order military strikes.” FoxNews.com, August 24th.

Fundamentalist Islamic militancy arose in the putrid ground of failed economic hopes, corrupt regimes siphoning most of the “quality of life” values for themselves and their cronies, with the American support noted above. The Western television shows and movies of old showing the economic promise of a prosperous middle class never happened for most. Schools to train high-value workers for the future, adequate medical care, corruption-free police enforcement of normal civility, a trustworthy legal systems and functional infrastructure just were promises destined to be broken. Poverty was the remaining vector, one unlikely to change as far as the mind’s eye could envision. Fundamentalist Islam, rejecting the distraction of Western “luxuries” vs. dedication to Islamic pursuits, explained poverty well, even elevated that status to “desirable.” It gave too many justification for the lives they couldn’t seem to change.

In the muck and mire, tiny little Gaza, Palestine’s little ball of militant hate ruled by deeply committed anti-Israeli/anti-American Islamists (Hamas), is 141 square miles of fading hopes, economic desperation, escalating anger and anarchical chaos. It is a launching pad for rocket and missile attacks against Israel and a rallying point for regional militants. Events in neighboring Egypt have gone the wrong way for Hamas.

“Now, the dismantling of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood by the new military-backed government that ousted the Islamist president has Hamas reeling without crucial economic and diplomatic support. Over the past [several] weeks, a ‘crisis cell’ of ministers has met daily. With Gaza’s economy facing a $250 million shortfall since Egypt shut down hundreds of smuggling tunnels, the Hamas government has begun to ration some resources…

“‘Now, Hamas is an orphan,’ said Akram Atallah, a political analyst and columnist, referring to the fact that the movement sprang from Egypt’s Brotherhood a quarter century ago. ‘Hamas was dreaming and going up with its dreams that the Islamists were going to take over in all the capitals. Those dreams have been dashed.’

“The tide of the Arab Spring initially buoyed Hamas, helping bolster Iran and Syria, which provided the Gazan leadership weapons and cash, while undermining President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, who was deeply distrustful and hostile to the group. But Hamas eventually sided with the Sunni opposition in the civil war in Syria — alienating President Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian backers. That was offset when Mr. Mubarak was replaced by Mohamed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood leader and ideological ally who relaxed the borders and brokered talks between Hamas and the hostile West as well as its Palestinian rivals.

“With Egypt’s military crackdown, Mr. Morsi in detention and the Brotherhood leadership either locked up, dead or in hiding, smuggling between Gaza and Egypt has come to a virtual halt. That means no access to building materials, fuel that costs less than half as much as that imported from Israel, and many other cheap commodities Gazans had come to rely on.” New York Times, August 23^rd. Does Hamas force itself back into an alliance with more-moderate President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority and his Fatah faction that dominates the West Bank? Does anger seethe and erupt into suicidal attacks against Israel? Does civil war drop the area into even more severe chaos? Is mass starvation and ultra-violence the next step?

All across the Islamic world, hopes have been dashed. Democracy is non-functional – even once-secular Turkey is wrestling with a lurch to the religious right. While the big schism is between those seeking to impost a pan-Islamic regime throughout that region versus those seeking secular modernity, the smaller factions make roiling civil war of “I’m right and you don’t deserve to live” players the definition of the likely future.

To those who challenge Islam as a warrior religion with violence as the only solution… attempting to contract “peaceful” Christianity… I only point out that Islam is 600 years younger than Christianity that itself enjoyed (enjoys?) its own obsession with ultra-violence: for example, the Spanish Inquisition, the religious justification for the conquest of the New World, Asia and Africa, the Salem Witch Trials and even our own Ku Klux Clan pursuing their vision of God’s mandate under a burning cross. Is this just human nature? Our response to limited natural resources and demographic overcrowding? Or are we actually evolving at some level, even as global climate change will only add strains to their rather astoundingly violent reality that began with such hope.

   I’m Peter Dekom, and evolution does require empathy and kindness… or brutal Darwinian pain… so pick one.