So if you wanted to make the scatterbrained Democrats look good by comparison, if you really want to give the Democratic Party a huge boost with approaching Congressional mid-terms, what would you beg, and I mean beg, the Republican party to do? Something where the President doesn’t have to do a thing (but he might), with a bill that will probably never get anywhere near his desk, where the Republicans will look like one-note-Johnnies on an effort that they have tried 41 times before and failed (42 was today!), where the United States (Conservative) Supreme Court has ruled against the Republican effort and where the harsh reality is that the dreaded legislation is already so embedded in our medical planning that it would be super-expe nsive to unwind? Something where businesses are already finding that they now have a cheaper alternative to over-priced retiree healthcare? Where they would literally stop planes from flying, food from being inspected, passports from being issued, military from protecting, veterans from being cared for, etc., etc.
The Dems aren’t talking about it, but deep inside, they are probably secretly hoping the Republican House does what it is threatening to do: hold their breath until they turn blue and shut down the government if they do not derail, defund and/or defeat Obamacare! Plllleeeeaaassse! “One day after conceding that the Democratic-controlled Senate probably would prevail on [any House] attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act], Sen. Ted Cruz still vowed to do ‘everything and anything possible to defund Obamacare.’” Associated Press, September 19th. Oh baby, I love it when you talk tough!
But there are a lot of less-than-stealthy Republicans in the House who know that while such actions may win those Tea Party candidates a clear path to victory in 2014 in their gerrymandered districts, shutting down the government this way pretty much denies the Republican Party any realistic chance of winning the presidency anytime soon. And with Hillary Clinton the likely Dem nominee, there doesn’t seem to be a positive direction (versus amplifying the voice of “no” and “not” and “negativity”) that the Republicans will be able to offer on a national basis. While the GOP will continue to beat that dead Benghazi horse, the one that Middle America is completely tired of hearing, their inability to address a national constituency threatens their viability as a politic al party. Think a moderate Chris Christie could ever run the Tea Party nominating gauntlet and become the GOP standard-bearer?
And here’s the very, very bad news for the GOP. Unless Hillary drops out and Joe Biden steps in, the moderates… those in the GOP who have championed minority rights and immigration reform… will face a Hobson’s choice. By the time the Dems leave the White House, if this scenario unfolds, all the best laid gerrymandering plans aside, the balance of voting America will have so completely shifted to an urban and ethnically diverse “majority of minorities,” those moderate Republicans will either have to create a new party in the middle, defect to the Dems or live in a country where they have joined with the evil-tempered codgers in the corner, bellowing about the good old days but no longer remotely relevant. The power of the gerrymander will eventually wear out! The next Census will most probably tsunami a whole pile of gerrymandered districts away.
What’s more, look at the values of the younger Republicans: gay rights don’t bother them, abortion reform is not at the top of their list of mandatory changes, they welcome immigration reform and simply want to see a more fiscally conservative country that doesn’t mess in the bedroom and allows people just…. Be.
The Republican House Speaker [above] senses the danger, but his Tea Party constituents know that they can only keep their jobs by doing stuff that is truly detrimental to the party as a whole: “[Speaker John] Boehner [is] pledging to avoid a shutdown yet also hoping to come away with a bite out of the health care law, even if less than complete defunding… Congressional aides pointed out during the day, for example, that if the Senate rewrites the House-passed bill to leave the health care law in place, Boehner and the rest of the House leadership could still seek further changes before passing it a second time.
“For their part, the White House and majority Democrats in the Senate will be trying to protect the health care law that stands as Obama's signature domestic accomplishment — without complicating the re-election chances of senators on the 2014 ballot in swing states.
“The White House intruded briefly on the Republican feud, pledging that Obama would veto any legislation that blocks the health care law from taking full effect [It’s his law]. The defunding drive ‘advances a narrow ideological agenda that threatens our economy and the interests of the middle class’ and would deny ‘millions of hard-working, middle-class families the security of affordable health coverage,’ it said.
“The effort seeking virtual repeal of the law as part of a government funding bill gained powerful momentum over the summer when the Senate Conservatives Fund, Heritage Action and other groups with tea party ties launched a nationwide campaign.” Associated Press. There are, however, so many provisions about which there is pretty strong support across the board: no lifetime caps, no exclusions for pre-existing conditions, no cancelations for serious medical issues… And while the Affordable Care Act needs serious tweaking, there’s no way to introduce “fix it” legislation to a House that only will vote to repeal the whole thing.
But Boehner also knows that he cannot appear to “give up” on defunding Obamacare; it seems to be the defining issue for Republicans everywhere. He’s got to hurt the Affordable Care Act somewhere just to save what little face there is to save. Yet he also can’t make the GOP look any more stupid than a party that has failed 41 consecutive times to reverse a law that is becoming more and more an inextricable part of the American life. October 1 is the date that the healthcare exchange mechanism kicks in, and the debt ceiling limit is crushing towards us. The Dems, holding court in the Senate, and boy do they smell blood in the water! “Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) vowed to strip out the anti-Affordable Care Act provisions and send a plain government funding bill back to the House, saying that ‘any bill that defunds Obamacare is dead. Dead. It’s a waste of time.’
“Senate Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), the health-care law’s chief antagonist, acknowledged that they have few procedural tools to block Reid’s maneuver. Even if the GOP filibusters the bill, Democrats say they have the votes to return it to the House by the end of next week…. Cruz’s concession infuriated House Republicans, including Speaker … Boehner… , who called on Cruz and his Senate allies Thursday ‘to pick up the mantle and get the job done.’ Meanwhile, Boehner and his team were hatching a plan to rework whatever comes back from the Senate, push a new bill through the House and demand that the Senate vote again — a strategy that would increase the odds of a shutdown on Oct. 1.” Washingt on Post, September 19th.
Things are going so badly for the Republican Party in the House, you have to wonder if there are secret Democratic contributors to Tea Party congressional races! Expect tough talk and maybe even a short shut-down, but it is so strange how the national presence and power of the GOP has become the sacrificial lamb for those Tea Party House delegates to get reelected in districts which have been so gerrymandered that winning is (a) only a factor of winning against other conservatives and (b) predicated on how extreme you can be. Anyone recall some… er a Republican … who once lambasted the “nattering nabobs of negativism”? Interesting.
I’m Peter Dekom, and it will be interesting to see how the GOP reconfigures if it is going to have the slightest shot of long-term relevancy.
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