Reading Tea Leaves

For those deeply committed to political evangelical/social conservatism, for Americans who want government to shrivel up and go away and for voters who believe that urban values must be subordinate to stand-alone, God-fearing and self-defending rural values, the Tea Party is a breath of fresh air, a cup of tea brewed warm and strong. This is “The Base.” For mere fiscal conservatives and business people who abhor brinksmanship, cannot tolerate actions that undercut the value of the dollar or threatened negative global economic responses, destabilized government (and hence business) functionality and potentially a much higher cost of capital, the Tea Party brew is hemlock. These groups are very much the constituency of the GOP, and in these two factions lies a war that threatens to rend the Republican Party asunder.

I’ve already blogged (The Long, Long Slide into the Abyss) about the global perception of American brinksmanship and a branch of Congress that opposes legislation simply because it was suggested by the President, a representative of the enemy Democratic Party. These actions have most certainly damaged America’s power and influence and may ultimately blowback into higher interest rates and deeper economic woes including those who have promulgated these destructive, non-compromising policies. So what’s happening to Tea Party perception here at home?

Although it is not much of a sample, there were a few perhaps seminal political battles in the “election lite” events of November 5^th. No surprise that a multicultural Democrat won the New City mayoral race. Even less of a surprise that popular New Jersey GOP Governor Chris Christie walloped his Democratic opponent, even grabbing a significant segment of Dems who voted for him. The tea leaves suggest that if The Base could tolerate a candidate who is clearly not one of their own, they would really have a very good shot at taking down the Democrats’ 2016 presidential candidate – even Hillary Clinton – with this Washington outsider.

But the interesting contests were in Alabama and Virginia, where key races pitted Tea Party stalwarts against others.  Looking at Alabama, which is a GOP stronghold, there was one Congressional primary election that the GOP leadership was clearly watching. And the results suggest that there just may be enough voters to keep the GOP intact and perhaps shove the Tea Party into a small and powerless corner of the Party. “Republican Bradley Byrne defeated his insurgent conservative opponent in an Alabama congressional primary runoff … notching a hard-fought victory for the business wing of the GOP… With 100 percent of votes tallied, Byrne topped Dean Young, a Christian conservative aligned with the tea party, 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.” Washington Post, November 6^th. A little victory for the way things used to be.

In Virginia, the battle was in a southern state with a growing affinity for technology and business, not the least of which is motivated by a number of voters who making their livings in and around adjacent Washington, D.C. A gubernatorial election embraces an entire state, and like Senate races, cannot be impacted by Congressional gerrymandered redistricting. The vote was between a classic Tea Party Republican against, perish the thought, a progressive Democrat. “Terry McAuliffe narrowly won the Virginia governor’s race…. defeating Republican Ken Cuccinelli II by piling up votes in parts of the state hit hard by last month’s federal government shutdown… After acidly negative campaigns by both candidates, Mc­Auliffe — a former Democratic National Committee chairman and legendary political fundraiser who has never held elective office — took large majorities in Virginia’s population centers, especially the Washington suburbs and Hampton Roads.” The Post.

While the Tea Party has effectively stopped Obama-proposed appointments in the Senate and just about any Obama-proposed legislation in the House, this campaign emphasizes “no,”  ”not” and “slash” but has not provided voters with much of a direction into what is positive for government. To many, the Tea Party-inspired GOP has become a one-note-Johnny about repealing Obamacare, and even with the Website mega-debacle plastered in the headlines, there is a weariness among voters who think it’s time to move on and accept the law, fix what’s wrong, and begin the process of governing the United States though discussion and compromise. The fat lady has sung on this one.

For the Tea Party and the GOP, it is very literally a “come to Jesus” moment. Can the Tea Party (or enough of The Base) accept moderation and compromise or will it regroup to mount a new attack that will equally frustrate the electorate and doom the Republicans to not being able to run for national office. And with gerrymandered districts that have given the Tea Party power beyond their numbers, can the GOP shift the direction of the Party without Tea Party cooperation? After all, most Americans are moderates according to every credible poll I have ever seen. It’s an import time for the GOP and an even more important time for America.

I’m Peter Dekom, and we are rapidly approaching the tipping point for the survival of the United States as we know it.