The Hidden Election

The secret’s been out for some time, but you pretty much have to figure that between now and the next census (2020), it will be old news, a done deal, and a fete accompli. From the Brookings Institution (June 19^th): “New 2010 Census analysis shows an unprecedented shift in the nation’s racial makeup in 14 states, one that is reshaping U.S. schools, work places and the electorate. Due to immigration, a combination of more deaths and fewer births among whites and an explosion of minority births, the U.S. is poised to be a majority-minority country sooner than predicted.Senior Fellow William Frey says we’re at the beginning of an inevitable transition that affords us new opportunities. Texas, New Mexico and California are already majority-minority states reflecting a racial shift related to more deaths among whites than births. This natural decrease is happening earlier than expected.” America is a majority of minorities.

The biggest individual segment in that demographic shift is obviously our Latino population, and they also represent that biggest part of that 11 million plus “undocumented” constituency that is finding an exceptionally hostile reaction to proposed immigration reform… reform that would provide some achievable path to legal residency and ultimately citizenship. For example, those of Mexican heritage (according to the Pew Hispanic Center) alone account for well over half of this total, and more than a total of three quarters of this undocumented group are Latino. While there are a solid number of Republican pragmatists willing to open doors if the border crossings can be reinforced, there are a whole lot more Tea Partiers who cannot accept that those who “broke the law getting here” can be allowed to achieve legal status anyway.

Immigration reform has split the Republican Party, yet again. With Romney’s pulling in a mere 27% of the Latino vote in the last presidential race, and with this population segment increasing as a percentage of the overall population, the GOP pragmatists are looking at alienating enough of the general population to lose any national election and beginning to see a coalition that might just take back Congressional districts and state legislatures where this population has seen the greatest growth. A recent “poll -- conducted by Latino Decisions on behalf of pro-reform groups National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund and America's Voice Education Fund -- surveyed 400 undocumented immigrants and found that 87 percent would like to become legal residents and eventually citizens, if they could.” Huffington Post, April 15^th.

Can you picture Texas, home of uber-conservative Ted Cruz (hmmm, a Latino name!), turning purple or even blue in the future? Florida’s hanging chads are becoming increasingly irrelevant as Hispanic voters accelerate, notwithstanding the old-world anti-Castro Cubans hanging with the right wing. Family is a strong value to most-Catholic Hispanics. Denying their brothers and sisters below the border with a path to citizenship – a path most of these voters have seen for themselves or their forefathers that came to the United States – is particularly infuriating. Thus, there is a new movement, with campaign coffers filled with enough cash to make a difference, ready to attack those unwilling to find a way to support a viable immigration package.

“The Latino Victory Project grew out of a fundraising committee called the Futuro Fund, which brought in more than $30 million for Obama’s reelection and minted a new cadre of national political donors. Led by actress Eva Longoria, Puerto Rico lawyer Andres Lopez and San Antonio businessman Henry R. Muñoz III, the fund represented the most robust demonstration yet of the Latino community’s ability to amass cash for U.S. political campaigns… After the election, those involved worked quietly to transform the loose network of donors into a permanent fundraising organization aimed at promoting policy issues and Latino candidates.

“‘What we want to do with the Latino Victory Project is build political power in the Latino community, so that the faces of Latinos are reflected not just in every level of government but in the policies that drive the country forward,’ said Cristobal Alex, a former program officer for the Ford Foundation who left his post to serve as president of the new group…

“In a presentation to the Latino Victory Project on [October 25^th], political scientists Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of the polling firm Latino Decisions made the case that opposing an immigration overhaul could permanently harm the image of the GOP in the Latino community. They compared it to the way California Republicans were hobbled after embracing a 1994 state ballot measure aimed at denying education and health benefits to undocumented immigrants.

“Latino Decisions identified 10 House Republicans whose reelection bids could be affected by Latino voters in 2014: Reps. Mike Coffman and Scott R. Tipton of Colorado; Denham, Gary G. Miller, David Valadao and Howard P. ‘Buck’ McKeon of California; Daniel Webster of Florida; Joseph J. Heck of Nevada; Stevan Pearce of New Mexico; and Randy Weber of Texas.” Washington Post, October 27^th.

Yup, times they are a-changing, and poll-watchers are keeping their eyes on a reconfigured GOP, one that can reinvent itself with fresh ideas embracing all Americans, or a party for last-generation white traditionalists hell-bent on ruling “my way or the highway” to the exclusion of minorities.  Is it going to be reinvention or self-destruction? The sheer numerical trending projections tell us that the new GOP mantra needs to be “change or die.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and such passionate opposition is most strange in a land that is known around the world as a nation of immigrants.