Shifty Demographics

Roses are red, violets are actually… er… violet. And so it is with the underlying numbers that define who we, the United States of America, are and, more importantly, who we are becoming. And despite the fact that we have a majority of state houses, governorships and even Congress in the hands of conservative traditionalists, most of the trends show the United States moving away from that constituency. We’re becoming a majority of minorities, with strong political leanings in the opposite direction.

Shortly after the details of the 2010 Census became available, the famous Brookings Institution began its analysis of the trends. “New 2010 Census analysis shows an unprecedented shift in the nation’s racial makeup in 14 states, one that is reshaping U.S. schools, work places and the electorate. Due to immigration, a combination of more deaths and fewer births among whites and an explosion of minority births, the U.S. is poised to be a majority-minority country sooner than predicted. Senior [Brookings] Fellow William Frey says we’re at the beginning of an inevitable transition that affords us new opportunities. Texas, New Mexico and California are already majority-minority states reflecting a racial shift related to more deaths among whites than births. This natural decrease is happening earlier than expected.” Brookings.edu, June 19, 2013.

The country appears to have hit that tipping point – where the majority of new births fall outside of the traditional white majority – in 2014, but the official measurements, the ones that define political election districts, won’t be determined until we have had time to digest the results of the 2020 Census. We can expect incumbent legislatures, dominated by conservatives clinging to their waning years of control, to continue their efforts to minimize “minority” votes (generally reflecting urban values and not sympathetic to traditional white conservative notions) through voter ID laws and gerrymandering as is currently the practice in Texas, the second most populous state in the Union. We can expect lots of judicial action as the power struggle resumes.

Not only is the composition of the majority of voting Americans rapidly changing, but we are even seeing changes in migration and birth patterns that are realigning the states with the largest populations, and hence the greatest number of Congressional districts (which are based on population). New York was once the most populated state until post-WWII migration patterns slowly pushed California to the top spot by the 1970 Census (Texas was only fourth, behind California, New York and Pennsylvania, becoming third only after the 1980 Census).

But as the cost of living combines with worsening weather patterns and spiraling housing and living costs, New York is losing its position as the third most populous state (behind California and Texas). The new number three? Florida! “The numbers, which reflect population estimates for July 2014, show that Florida now has about 19.9 million residents, overtaking New York and its 19.7 million. (California and Texas remain in first and second place, respectively.)

“Demographers say that the new estimates reflect decades-old migration trends. According to the 2014 figures, Florida gained nearly 300,000 residents in the 12 months before July, while New York gained just over 50,000…. ‘It was a long time coming,’ said Jan K. Vink, a specialist with the Program on Applied Demographics at Cornell University, which studies and supplies data to the Census Bureau. ‘Florida has been growing much faster than New York.’

“And occasionally gloating about it. When Gov. Rick Scott determined last December that his state — with all the oranges, warm breezes and, yes, retirees from New York — would soon surge into the top 3, he said confidently that ‘Florida’s on a roll,’ and taunted northerners with talk of air-conditioners running during the Christmas season. (And sure enough, the midafternoon temperature in Miami on [December 23^rd], 80 degrees, was more than twice as high as that in Albany.)” New York Times, December 23^rd. There is, however, a rather direct connection between our political direction and the make-up of our changing population.

I’m Peter Dekom, and no, contrary to the rumors floating around California these days, the Florida State bird is not the sweating mosquito (it’s actually the mockingbird that eats mosquitos)!