Rogue Government or Just a Standard, New Age Criminal Enterprise?

 Narco “tank:

drones used in cartel wars Armed drone used in cartel wars

Photo of possible cartel soldier with a Javelin

Some countries swear by constant coups d’états. Of late, Bolivia managed to fend one off. Haiti nominally has a government, but this nation has been plagued by assassinations, gangs (war lords?) scrambling for turf, a completely ineffective police force and a military of questionable value… fending off earthquakes, hurricanes, dire poverty, rampant disease and starvation. But Haiti has a nominal head of state and a major gang leader who wants an official leadership role in the future of that ravaged nation. Hell or Gaza would probably be more comfortable. Civil wars rage everywhere, from Lebanon, Somalia and the “Sudans” to miliary leadership promising a return to democracy, sort of.

But where gangs are rich and have access to weapons many governments covet, where their foot soldiers are concentrated and deployed in local territories that are de facto sovereign narco states within a much larger official country, it’s hard to think of dealing with them simply as criminals. Especially if they wield state-of-the-art drones, missiles, explosives, artillery and grenades in addition to the types of small arms with which we equip our own soldiers. Add submarines, fiercely fast patrol boats, modern gatling guns, spotter aircraft and the ability to ensure cooperation from that “official government” to keep their distance and perhaps throw in some inside information and exemption from any criminal prosecution.

Whether they’re in El Salvador, Honduras, Columbia, Guatemala or next door in Mexico, all our neighbors, by far their largest source of revenue from drug sales comes from that colossal land of drug users and addicts who have or “can find” the money to access those “supplies”: the United States of America. And while the new level of synthetic opioids can indeed be manufactured in the good old USA, increased potency (as with the overdose king drug, fentanyl) creates vastly smaller packages that are easier to smuggle… and such synthetics can be more efficiently made in those south-of-the-border nations where the relevant police force is… er… not as big a problem. You can be certain that any politician with any sway, any serious member of the press likely to stir the populace, will either be bought off or killed.

You may have noticed the accelerating death toll of “I’ll clean up the corruption” candidates in the recent election in Mexico, and the never-ending extermination of crusading members of the media… Cartels like the situation the way it is. And they like their new side businesses from providing coyotes to hustle undocumented immigrants (mostly from Central America and points south or even from China and Africa; Mexicans, many of whom do not even speak Spanish, only account for 20%-30% of border crossers these days) across the border into the United States to completely and violently taking over most of the northern Mexico avocado farms that cater to American shoppers. Border wall? They appreciate anything that will squeeze their competitors and give them an excuse to raise drug prices. Getting stuff to and from the United States is easy.

In every way possible, the United States has been the cartels’ dream partner, notwithstanding the occasional arrest of a big wig or the menace of the DEA. Republicans threaten to send US troops across the border to impose “old fashioned Texas justice” on them thar lawbreakers. But that would constitute a US invasion of Mexico, and Mexico might just have to defend itself with real troops. What a great opportunity from cartel leaders, we hear through the grapevine, for the US to purge what’s left of legitimate governance in Mexico… and narrow the field of cartels. Sigh, but even that would be too little too late.

We are gone long past those earlier days of narcotrafficking – where cartels with satisfied with just buying a vast array of personal firearms (particularly after the US Supreme Court opened the spigot in 2008 that quickly flooded the US with semiautomatic assault rifles) that exploded into millions of well-armed cartel soldiers… in nice uniforms with bullet-proof vests. All in a nation with only two legit gun stores in the entire country. Naw, today, those small arms are yesterday’s news… they might have enough. Now they’re using the billions they have amassed for bigger, country-conquering stuff, offered in the international illegal weapons marketplace, as Steve Fisher tells us in this June 29th piece in USA Today:

“The man sat on a worn-out office chair in the backroom of a market in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, amid vegetable trimmings and a haphazard stack of milk crates. He wore a blue shirt, worn jeans – and a ski mask… He asked to be referred by a nickname, ‘El Flaco’ – the skinny guy – so authorities could not identify him. He works as a mercenary, he said, and had come to discuss a closely guarded secret of Mexico’s most powerful cartels: The FGM 148 Javelin infrared-guided, missile launcher… El Flaco maintains he has been trained to perform special operations using shoulder-fired weapons, including the Javelin. He said he now trains others to use it as well.

“David Saucedo, a security consultant, confirmed the Javelin is being used by cartels and suggested they could be revealing this information as a show of force to Mexico’s incoming president, who is to take power later this year… ‘It’s to show the government, perhaps this one or the incoming one, that they have the ability to launch attacks of this kind with the weaponry they have,’ Saucedo said. ‘It’s their secret weapon, but they can use it if necessary. That’s my impression.’…

“If El Flaco is telling the truth, Javelins would be among the most extreme examples of the escalation in the arms race between cartels and Mexican military. Cartels’ arsenals now include belt-fed gatling guns, drone bombs and land mines, all with potential to provoke elected U.S. officials who have advocated invading Mexico… The U.S.-made Javelin is the most sophisticated shoulder-fired missile launcher in the world, with a range of a mile and a half. Its main purpose is to destroy military tanks, but it also has the capacity to take down low-flying helicopters, according to the owner’s manual…

“U.S. officials roundly denied that cartels have Javelins as did a high-level Mexican security official, but despite close scrutiny by the U.S. Department of Defense, there are holes in the U.S. tracking system. During the Iraq War in 2003, for instance, the department lost track of 35 Javelins provided to Iraqi allied forces. ISIS was found to have a Javelin in Syria, Kurdish fighters there also obtained a Javelin and the weapon was found at a Libyan warlord base.

“Back in Mexico, a federal Secretary of Security official, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity, said authorities confiscated two Javelins from a faction of the New Generation Jalisco Cartel.” They’ve got those, and sophisticated drones are available in every corner of the world… Money to buy them is no object. And yes, cartels have both sophisticated missiles and drones… the money to pay border guards to look the other way, use legitimate shipping and if all else fails to build perfectly engineered tunnels that are very, very difficult to detect. And as long as American buyers pour billions into the pockets of cartels every year, well…

A US invasion? El Flaco notes that his bosses “would not think twice to use it [including a Javelin missile] against (U.S. forces), if they dare enter the country…. That would create a terrible war… We don’t let Mexican forces stop us, much less a foreign force.” USA Today. The US has a terrible track record in fighting wars against forces much less well-armed than these cartels.

I’m Peter Dekom, and we are very good at blaming other countries, especially Mexico, for problem that the United States created… and continues to support in weapons and drug sales.